NaoPos Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 6z GFS has an interesting system during the Day 7 into Day 8 time period... primary low goes to the TN/KY VA/WV border area and then transfers (down to OBX area) to a coastal storm that goes up the Eastern Seaboard to around ACY and then makes a right turn out to sea Also, still has Dec 24th system, but that low is running up the coast just on land That first system is trending towards the euro solution of 1 low staying south of us. It ain't done trending yet. The Xmas eve storm is a weird evolution for 1 reason. The amount of energy crashing the west coast causes a temp -PNA, so naturally, the GFS brings the system up the coast & inland. The euro ens and gefs have been hinting at a more robust +PNA in this timeframe. The storm signal is there, and at this time frame, specifics don't matter, but we can try and figure out the h5 set up. I'd be willing to bet that the 6z GEFS show a more robust +PNA for this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Post Xmas Storm. I like it. -AO, NAO should be neutral or slightly negative by then, +PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Considering the alternative ohv track, pretty good run. Nice to see it go under us. I expected a shift the other way last few runs ecmwf has gone back and forth between a rain track to a squashed look. Still a long way off but if like to see it throw the snow solution from a couple days ago into the mix in the next few runs. Otherwise it may be hinting at two options, neither one good fir a big snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2014 Author Share Posted December 13, 2014 6z GFS has an interesting system during the Day 7 into Day 8 time period... primary low goes to the TN/KY VA/WV border area and then transfers (down to OBX area) to a coastal storm that goes up the Eastern Seaboard to around ACY and then makes a right turn out to sea Also, still has Dec 24th system, but that low is running up the coast just on land That's almost exactly the same evolution of the Dec 26, 2012 storm. We would need more hp to the ne though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 last few runs ecmwf has gone back and forth between a rain track to a squashed look. Still a long way off but if like to see it throw the snow solution from a couple days ago into the mix in the next few runs. Otherwise it may be hinting at two options, neither one good fir a big snow.Getting big snow is pretty unlikely in this setup imo. The squashed slider type of evolution is the best chance for dca to record an inch and last nights euro ensembles moved towards that solution becoming more likely vs a ohv primary track. Euro ens have a pretty strong signal for a great lakes low to be present for the Xmas storm. But it's way out so not worth trying to dig in too deep. They are also continuing to look like a -nao is in our future before the year closes out. Sure has been a while since we had that on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Getting big snow is pretty unlikely in this setup imo. The squashed slider type of evolution is the best chance for dca to record an inch and last nights euro ensembles moved towards that solution becoming more likely vs a ohv primary track. Euro ens have a pretty strong signal for a great lakes low to be present for the Xmas storm. But it's way out so not worth trying to dig in too deep. They are also continuing to look like a -nao is in our future before the year closes out. Sure has been a while since we had that on our side. 500mb s/w has to pass to our south if we want a chance at snow with the 20/21st storm. With a colder antecedent airmass, we would have a chance at front-end snow-to-rain with an OH Valley track, but the bootleg airmass over us isn't going to cut it in this situation I think. So, if the 500mb s/w goes to our south, we can hold in what cold air is there and give us a chance at a widespread light snow. Luckily that's what the Euro ensemble mean shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 The 20/21st storm has more legs after the 00z runs, however i wouldn't bet the house on it. The airmass is very stale, we would need very good timing between the 50/50 & the wave coming out of the southwest. It has a better chance than it looked like yesterday though. The best part is that we have something to track. As talked about it looks extremely likely that we have a favorable pattern come XMas and beyond which excites me. Even if its an unwarranted worry a complete December bust would have been pretty scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 I just read yesterday's aer/dr. Cohen update. In some ways it reminded me of us weenies chasing a 2 week pattern change that keeps moving forward in time. The latest thinking is that the earliest a ssw event can happen is sometime during the first couple weeks of Jan. The strat pv has been strengthening lately because of unexpected unfavorable height and pressure patterns. However, the article did state that the ao will trend negative week 2 and probably remain that way week 3. The conus should experience a cooling trend that may have some legs. Just not the hounds or anything. Which i'm totally fine with. I'm in it for snow and not frozen boogers when walking the dog. I'm personally not the least but concerned if a ssw event happens. It's not a requirement for blocking and cold enough to snow patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 If I am reading the 12z GFS correct, there is a 50-50 low which is keeping the H in the Plains locked in and unable to move east at hr 144... is that correct or am I wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 This should be an intriguing run re the 21st storm fir our area... 1033 H locked in the Upper Midwest and a 1012 L in E MS at 153 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2014 Author Share Posted December 13, 2014 This run has a low down south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 This run has a low down south I've heard the south described that way before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 This run has a low down south Precip is kind of anemic though... big bowling ball at h5 level in SW at 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2014 Author Share Posted December 13, 2014 Surprised nobody mentioned the 6z para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2014 Author Share Posted December 13, 2014 This para run has the low in Tallahassee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2014 Author Share Posted December 13, 2014 Something following? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Fwiw at this point the 12z gfs is showing some frozen precip for JYO....no need to tell me the issues with the run....just stating what the model output says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Reg gfs shows h5 gaining just a little too much latitude so midlevels crap out. However, I like the growing consensus of keeping everything below us. I'll take a whiff south much better than an overhead cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 288 BOOM time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2014 Author Share Posted December 13, 2014 Active Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 288 is a disaster. Coal in stockings and house robbed of presents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 I like this 12z run alot.... numerous chances... and at the end of the run large ridge in the W US with nice trough in E US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2014 Author Share Posted December 13, 2014 288 is a disaster. Coal in stockings and house robbed of presents. And a weird look to it. Too many moving parts. I like seeing those storms to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Easier for a storm to come north than to go south, I like where it is at right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Again, yall keep sleepin' on the 21st. I'm claiming it now. I mean, how often have I been wrong when I've started up the engine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 288 is a disaster. Coal in stockings and house robbed of presents. 288 BOOM time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 And a weird look to it. Too many moving parts. I like seeing those storms to our south. Obviously I have zero confidence in any lr op threat. The only thing I didn't like is the gl low. H5 would support a pesky low like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Again, yall keep sleepin' on the 21st. I'm claiming it now. I mean, how often have I been wrong when I've started up the engine? Trends have been kinda encouraging Tbh. The 50/50 has been showing in a good spot with all guidance right now. Being on the nw fringe of precip at this lead is a pretty good spot. Para gfs would give us an inch or so without having the temp issues that the old gfs shows. It's becoming a legit possibility of scoring a little something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Again, yall keep sleepin' on the 21st. I'm claiming it now. I mean, how often have I been wrong when I've started up the engine? Going to have it manufacture it's own cold air.. none to be found Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 12z GFS verbatim is snow TV on the 20th for Northern Maryland. Temps are borderline. tropical tidbits shows 2-3" in North-Central MD. 12z GGEM entirely different with this storm as it is well OTS and a very late bloomer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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