mitchnick Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 funny nobody on the Board that I've seen has mentioned the huge spike in polar stratospheric temps of late; a few different levels 30mb 10 mb 5mb note that 10mb and 5mb have warmed beyond 1979-2013 maxes per these graphs this usually means some serious blocking I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 funny nobody on the Board that I've seen has mentioned the huge spike in polar stratospheric temps of late; a few different levels 30mb 10 mb 5mb note that 10mb and 5mb have warmed beyond 1979-2013 maxes per these graphs this usually means some serious blocking I believe Not sure about blocking, at least initially, but should lead to weaker PV / -AO. I was looking at that and the poleward heat flux/time plot from the CPC(Stratosphere) site earlier. I'm not too good at interpreting that stuff, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 funny nobody on the Board that I've seen has mentioned the huge spike in polar stratospheric temps of late; a few different levels 30mb 10 mb 5mb note that 10mb and 5mb have warmed beyond 1979-2013 maxes per these graphs this usually means some serious blocking I believe Between the bottom up wave breaking events (100hpa-50hpa roughly) early on, t and then the top down warmings (heat flux from equator - polar latitudes & the Siberian snowpack, 1hpa-30hpa ), there was def warming going on. The PV become quite erratic and weaker than normal climo. It's why the record breaking cold came in November. The -EPO was our Block. However, until the mjo get/'back to the pacific, We'll see some levels of the PV strengthen up a bit. Mostly at the higher levels. 1-30hpa. Ecmwf forecast that for the time being. 100mb PV is pretty disturbed. Cohen is pretty confident in a SSW or even a major one (complete dismantling of the PV) come end of December -early jan. http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation We continue to anticipate that the vertical wave propagation will resume in mid- to late December and become anomalously strong, for reasons discussed above. This should result in a significant if not major SSW, consistent with the high October Eurasian snow cover paradigm. Therefore, the prospects for a SSW in early January are still highly probable. I think once the PAC starts to cooperate assuming the mjo returns to 7-1 mid December 15-20th, the fun gets going. Should see the Aleutian low return, the -EPO ridging into canada get stronger. (Gfs and euro hint at weaker Episodes forming and then relaxing at times) once and if the mjo gets to 7-1. If we see that, then we can start talking SSW event as Cohen talks about. It's a wildcard. And the end result if one occurs remains to be seen. Best case scenario is we see a SSW come late December- early jan, and then a -NAO episode can ensue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 0z GFS has snow and 23 degrees at 10am on Tuesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 29, 2014 Author Share Posted November 29, 2014 0z GFS has snow and 23 degrees at 10am on Tuesday... Just need that precip to move a tad north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 0z GFS has snow and 23 degrees at 10am on Tuesday... and didn't the GFS have Wednesday;s storm ots 4.5-5 days out? it would be nice if the Euro came around tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 and didn't the GFS have Wednesday;s storm ots 4.5-5 days out? it would be nice if the Euro came around tonight It's not supported by tonight's para or GGEM....but they all have the cold front with the huge high and some sort of associated precip.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 It's not supported by tonight's para or GGEM....but they all have the cold front with the huge high and some sort of associated precip.... that's basically what the Euro had with its typical dagger of warmth for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Day 10 on tonights EURO looks looks mildly interesting... semi-ridge out West and a 1031 H centered over S SD with and another H (1036) hanging out in Western Quebec... while a low pressure system appears to be developing in S AR/N LA at 1015mb... i dont think this system will cut with the H's guarding us to the north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 6z GFS sounding suggests SN and PL for Tuesday. Warm layer near freezing from 850-750mb, but otherwise below freezing in the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 ...and suddenly the warmth appears on the 10 Canadian ensembles http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/tenday_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 We know we can basically punt the next 10 days to 2 weeks. After that there are a lot of signs that point to a return to a colder pattern. MJO will be progressing towards favorable phases over the coming weeks, warming over the Polar stratosphere should weaken the PV somewhat and help bring the AO from neutral/positive to a more stable negative phase. And lest we forget the very negative QBO, which should enhance further SSW/PV disturbances and possibly promote high latitude blocking over N Atlantic, hopefully by the end of the month. Also there were indications on the GFS and GEM ens mean from yesterday that beyond the next couple weeks, the Alaskan low was retrograding back towards the Aleutians, and heights were building westward over the N Atlantic from Scandinavia. As always, much is subject to change, and time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Models are hinting at a cool down around 12/11/2014. Tehn the pattern becomes active. Better strap in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 29, 2014 Author Share Posted November 29, 2014 Tuesday morning still looks interesting. Somebody start the December obs/short range thread. We need it for close in stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Tuesday morning still looks interesting. Somebody start the December obs/short range thread. We need it for close in stuff. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45017-december-obsdiscoshort-range/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 FWIW FOR THIS WEDNESDAY.. A LITTLE SHORTWAVE, probably a non event but ill post it anyway, for BWI... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 question for u guys, I don't know a whole lot about the new para GFS, is it a better upgrade for the GFS or does it have as many issues as the GFS we all know ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Information on the parallel GFS can be found here. Check implementations and also performance and also implementation review One interesting point is that the first 10 days will be run at "13-km" resolution. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/GFS/impl.php The improvement in 500 hPa heights wrt to the old GFS is largest at approximately 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 to me the difference is the MJO the GFS pushes the MJO into the good phases in the LR and EURO kills it. Thats why we see such drastic differences in the LR among the models cohen seems to think the SSW is not going to happen this month and that the PV is going to strengthen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 to me the difference is the MJO the GFS pushes the MJO into the good phases in the LR and EURO kills it. Thats why we see such drastic differences in the LR among the models cohen seems to think the SSW is not going to happen this month and that the PV is going to strengthen Lack of a SSW event doesnt mean PV is going to strengthen. And thats not what Cohen said. The AO will likely trend negative over the next 2 weeks(not strongly negative), but a significant warming event likely wont occur for another 4-6 weeks. From AER.... "Beyond the next two weeks, the strongest signal for the AO continues to be from the high October Eurasian snow cover. High snow cover favors a weaker polar vortex mid-winter, which would also promote a negative surface-based AO. Wave driving has been observed to be strong in recent weeks but is now predicted to slacken in early December. Therefore the likelihood of a significant or major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in December is low. Climatologically, SSWs occur in January, and that is looking like a better target for this winter as well." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 to me the difference is the MJO the GFS pushes the MJO into the good phases in the LR and EURO kills it. Thats why we see such drastic differences in the LR among the models cohen seems to think the SSW is not going to happen this month and that the PV is going to strengthen why did you say the pv is going to strengthen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 why did you say the pv is going to strengthen? I am guessing he misinterpreted something. We have a +AO now but all guidance I have seen shows a trend towards neutral and likely negative by the second week in December. Cohen(aer) in their latest update as of a few days ago, also mentions this, but doesn't expect a major SSW event till early January at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 to me the difference is the MJO the GFS pushes the MJO into the good phases in the LR and EURO kills it. Thats why we see such drastic differences in the LR among the models cohen seems to think the SSW is not going to happen this month and that the PV is going to strengthen The euro bias correction MJO looks like the UKMET. Brings it into 7 and 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 I like how our torchy 1st week of December will now feature one day above normal (two if you count tomorrow), one day well below normal and 3-4 days near normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 I like how our torchy 1st week of December will not feature one day above normal (two if you count tomorrow), one day well below normal and 3-4 days near normal. Depends on how you look at it. With lows factored in particularly it looks like every day could be above normal except Tuesday. NWS is hedging cool late week in particular compared to modeling. Maybe right though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Depends on how you look at it. With lows factored in particularly it looks like every day could be above normal except Tuesday. NWS is hedging cool late week in particular compared to modeling. Maybe right though. I mean to say "now feature" instead of "not feature", which is a typo that totally changes the meaning of the sentence. As for late week, each day might be a bit above normal, but not my much, although I could see it trending slightly cooler or a bit warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 I mean to say "now feature" instead of "not feature", which is a typo that totally changes the meaning of the sentence. As for late week, each day might be a bit above normal, but not my much, although I could see it trending slightly cooler or a bit warmer. Tuesday is definitely no way to run a warm up. Not sure we were ever scheduled to truly torch per se though. Kinda on periphery, room for gradient wiggles etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 I mean to say "now feature" instead of "not feature", which is a typo that totally changes the meaning of the sentence. As for late week, each day might be a bit above normal, but not my much, although I could see it trending slightly cooler or a bit warmer. Other than tomorrow and Monday, where temps are going to be 55-60, every other day looks pretty much avg, upper 40s-low 50s, with Tuesday probably staying in the 30s. So pretty typical overall for early Dec. No torch for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Tuesday is definitely no way to run a warm up. Not sure we were ever scheduled to truly torch per se though. Kinda on periphery, room for gradient wiggles etc. I think we all had some reason to doubt it, but the ensembles were certainly advertising a potentially torchy (60s for highs?) type pattern last week and before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 12z Euro op seemed pretty decent @ 240....even looked like a -NAO appearance. What do the ensembles look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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