WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2014 Author Share Posted December 12, 2014 If only we had a Philly subforum poster to come in and calm us down. No kidding......but don't worry.......that will come just as soon as one model shows a bad solution. I'm still holding out hope for that Day 8-10 storm. Maybe it could be like last years Dec 8 storm??? Or the year before's Dec 26 storm?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 What is the over/under on the new and improved relationship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 No kidding......but don't worry.......that will come just as soon as one model shows a bad solution. I'm still holding out hope for that Day 8-10 storm. Maybe it could be like last years Dec 8 storm??? Or the year before's Dec 26 storm?? I think our better chance is the shortwave beyond the day 10 one but even at day 10, you can't put much stock in any individual solution. Through xmas, any snow threat is gonna really struggle to have enough cold air. That doesn't mean you can't get snow with a good storm track and damming if the high stays in the right place, you can. it just makes it nerve wracking and gives us more chances to fail than win. After the xmas storm we'll have cold but the pattern may be drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Seems like the GEFS members have more consistency with the 24th-26th storm than the 21st storm. Solutions for the 21st are all over the map, but the signal for the Xmas storm is pretty darn robust for this time range. Some absolute monster Miller A's and some monster cutters that head to Detroit. This looks really nice for this time range, although the preceding maps look more like a Miller B than a Miller A. Still, the individual ensemble members are pretty clear at something coming out of the Gulf. Just a question of which side of the Apps/coastline it tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 What is the over/under on the new and improved relationship. now that Ji got his met degree from Facebook things should go smoother Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2014 Author Share Posted December 12, 2014 now that Ji got his met degree from Facebook things should go smoother BTW, the tropical tidbits maps are great. If they just had Euro precip........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 CMA has a bomb.. looks east tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 CMA has a bomb.. looks east tho. Far East....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 no model is ever correct 8+ days away, and some 8+ hours although snow in the big cities with the 12/21 "event" is going to be tough, I'm still pretty optimistic we'll be dealing with a close call right now, the models are all over the place (from Lakes cutter to Out to Sea) so all solutions remain on the table frankly, I'm not real concerned with a cutter because it seems every consequential system of late has been off the coast, and as a firm believer of seasonal patterns, I believe odds still favor something to our south and east; maybe it will make a liar out of me since it eventually has to happen, but until it does the odds remain in our favor imho in the end, I think our issue will be the nagging problem we've seem to have with every "eligible" system this year, namely, boundary level temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 LOL! I was thinking the same!! China's one storm policy has paid dividends. ~1000mb NE GOM at 192 965mb south of nova scotia at 228 Just gotta get it west a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 It's just nice to see the active southern stream. I'll take my chances on temps as long as the precip is gonna be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 If only we had a Philly subforum poster to come in and calm us down. They same quite negative. The pro mets seem more excited and that is what counts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 WEENIE COMMENT .... not for me Far East....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 China's one storm policy has paid dividends. ~1000mb NE GOM at 192 965mb south of nova scotia at 228 Just gotta get it west a bit. Gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Euro ensembles don't have an apps or overhead track. The spread in solutions have the primary going into the oh vly so that shows. But also looks like there are enough members saying the lp stays underneath us and off the nc/va coast tracking se of the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Euro ensembles don't have an apps or overhead track. The spread in solutions have the primary going into the oh vly so that shows. But also looks like there are enough members saying the lp stays underneath us and off the nc/va coast tracking se of the benchmark. Bob, 21s storm or the 24th? Getting confused with the 2 systems! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Bob, 21s storm or the 24th? Getting confused with the 2 systems! 21st. It's really hard to say which is favored. My guess is a primary going to far n-w of us to help. But there's a lot of spread and definitely some members picking up on an underneath track to keep it interesting I'll defer on the 25th. I don't really have many thoughts about it other than what Wes said earlier. It's the kind of setup that could potentially have a pesky great lakes low messing with things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Day 9 and 10 Euro ensemble mean SLP and 850 temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Definitely not sold that the 21st is a wash yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 The one thing that I consider a net positive with this ensemble run is the precip panels don't show heavy precip making it up into central pa and northward. The consensus agreement keeps us on the northern edge with a more ene track off the coast. Hopefully we can score a fluke out of this but there are a lot of red flags to get excited about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Ensemble mean precip for the 21st storm is over .50. More support for a possible frozen solution than last night. Some big hits mixed in there. Euro and GEFS are at odds during xmas week. Euro is latching onto the idea of a goa/-epo ridge with lowest heights centered in the 4 corners region. GEFS has the lowest heights and trough axis a good bit east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Ensemble mean precip for the 21st storm is over .50. More support for a possible frozen solution than last night. Some big hits mixed in there. Euro and GEFS are at odds during xmas week. Euro is latching onto the idea of a goa/-epo ridge with lowest heights centered in the 4 corners region. GEFS has the lowest heights and trough axis a good bit east. Split the difference probably makes sense. I think/hope the trough would move east by New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Ensemble mean precip for the 21st storm is over .50. More support for a possible frozen solution than last night. Some big hits mixed in there. Euro and GEFS are at odds during xmas week. Euro is latching onto the idea of a goa/-epo ridge with lowest heights centered in the 4 corners region. GEFS has the lowest heights and trough axis a good bit east. Nobody likes the 21st, but I'm hugging it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Nobody likes the 21st, but I'm hugging it. I think the most interesting thing about it is that everything hinges on the lead storm and what happens there. In some ways it's irrelevant what the models are showing for the 21st until they nail the storm progression before it. 18z gfs says break out your galsohes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Best fantasy storm of the year after Xmas on the 18z. And frigid on the heels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Best fantasy storm of the year after Xmas on the 18z. And frigid on the heels. Teens in the afternoon on the 28th after inches of snow? Sounds good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 18z new GFS has a 994 low off Delaware for the 21st storm and has almost 2.0" of QPF for DC. High slides east too early so its rain here. Definitely worth watching (as we're all doing anyways). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Best fantasy storm of the year after Xmas on the 18z. And frigid on the heels. The storm after the storm after the storm. I've liked that after Xmas period for the last couple days. Too soon to say the pre Xmas and Xmas storms wont produce snow (some place) in the area, but probably not good odds given the pattern progression. Need the AO to be solidly negative and some NA blocking sure wouldn't hurt... individual members have been strongly hinting at it, but maybe not by the 25th. Lots to track for sure. It wont be boring from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Remember the good ole days when we didn't start tracking storms until they were within 10 days. That is a lot of precip for an ensemble mean at that time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Remember the good ole days when we didn't start tracking storms until they were within 10 days. That is a lot of precip for an ensemble mean at that time range. If the next threat is 10+ days it's all we got. In 12-13 we tracked months in advance. Haha Luckily we'll be getting a snowy miller a every 3-5 days starting next weekend for a month or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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