usedtobe Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 I'm liking the european ens mean after xmas. If I were doing a long range forecast for the week between Christmas and New Years, I'd put our snow chances above normal, not the measly slightly above for the prior week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Euro ensembles are mixed but actually support a chance of snow more than 12z. Typically when our area is depending on a key transient feature to make things work it's best to always take the under. Especially at 5+ day leads. Interesting. How do they support it more? From the MSLP track, it looks like the ensembles are following the Op's big bag of WTF. I'm liking the european ens mean after xmas. If I were doing a long range forecast for the week between Christmas and New Years, I'd put our snow chances above normal, not the measly slightly above for the prior week. I dig it, Wes. I'm feeling optimistic that we all get some decent snow before January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Interesting. How do they support it more? From the MSLP track, it looks like the ensembles are following the Op's big bag of WTF. Probably a byproduct of spread more than support. There were very few snowy memebers with the 12z run yesterday. More are popping up. Ensembles are definitely quicker than the op with precip and storm track. I suppose it's possible to get snow on the front of a storm pushing towards the Ohio valley if it moves fast enough because the airmass is half decent. I'm honestly not expecting much. Fluke in an overall hostile pattern with marginal temps. I'll only get excited when all guidance is showing the same thing. Would be nice to luck into a 1-3" event for the cities even if it's messy. I like seeing what Wes is posting. Ensemble guidance is starting to converge on a -ao/nao/epo setup right after Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Probably a byproduct of spread more than support. There were very few snowy memebers with the 12z run yesterday. More are popping up. Ensembles are definitely quicker than the op with precip and storm track. I suppose it's possible to get snow on the front of a storm pushing towards the Ohio valley if it moves fast enough because the airmass is half decent. I'm honestly not expecting much. Fluke in an overall hostile pattern with marginal temps. I'll only get excited when all guidance is showing the same thing. Would be nice to luck into a 1-3" event for the cities even if it's messy. I like seeing what Wes is posting. Ensemble guidance is starting to converge on a -ao/nao/epo setup right after Xmas. Ah ok, a couple big members in the group. I'd wager those members are the coastals? Based on the MSLP anomalies, it still looked like a cluster was along the coast. I'm still going to stick with my original idea that the storm right around Xmas is the best chance of the 3 to get widespread snow out of, but I think post-Xmas the chances will improve even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 I'm liking the european ens mean after xmas. If I were doing a long range forecast for the week between Christmas and New Years, I'd put our snow chances above normal, not the measly slightly above for the prior week. I completely agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Ah ok, a couple big members in the group. I'd wager those members are the coastals? Based on the MSLP anomalies, it still looked like a cluster was along the coast. I'm still going to stick with my original idea that the storm right around Xmas is the best chance of the 3 to get widespread snow out of, but I think post-Xmas the chances will improve even more. About half the members show some snow during the period. Only 9 or so have 2"+ but that's including the bad math. There's a fairly big disagreement in speed. The majority of ensemble members have precip starting between hour 204-216 and not 228 like the euro op. What a faster solution means is anyone's guess. GEM has a straight up coastal. GFS has west track. Euro is right in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 MORE ON THE COMING PATTERN CHANGE ... glad to see WES is on board....i have been talking about the dec 22-26 change for over a week now so the TREND IS MY FRIEND One of the reasons why I am not particularly bullish about the event /threat for December 21 is that the overall pattern on a hemispheric scale ...is not very favorable. Yes the models DO show what appears to be cold HIGH in a pretty good set up ...at least for the beginning of the event. The problem is that the flow at 500 mb across Canada is Pacific and ZONAL ....and has no arctic connection. Thus the HIGH is NOT very cold and has to be the perfect ideal position when the coastal Low begins in order to keep some the precip snow. The only reason why this is potential threat to begin with is the development of the big ocean Low over southeastern Canada (the 50/50 LOW)The NAO is strongly positive which along with the Pacific pattern strongly interdicts the supply of cold air into the Northeast US. But beyond the December 21 event... If we use the overall hemispheric pattern as a starting point we can truly see some significant changes taking place across the hemisphere by DEC 25. Here is the 324 hrs EURO EPS MEAN.... It shows several important tihngs... many of which are self explanatory The 5 days CFS from from the website tropicaltidbits web site has been showing this for while.... and increasingly amplified +PNA and -EPO pattern . Now the euro ensembles are showing this as well. see image The one thing that should be noted is that we do not on this map yet see a -NAO and the PV is still very far to the north over Baffin island. here is the week 3 and 4 500 mb on anomaly maps from CPC. I have drawn in some key features for ease of comprehension. The cfs clearly indicates that the pattern amplification is going to really picked up speed In week 3 and week 4 . The -EPO goes absolutely ballistic in week4 and strongly resembles what we saw last January But again ...even though there IS a -AO we do not have -NAO.. Yet Here is why. Next week as the zonal flow across Canada begins to amplify it will take on the WIDE and BROAD shape. We can all see that. Because of this ...the PV is forced to over to Baffin Island in far Northeast Canada . This in turn means any RIDGE is forced over iceland or the uK or Norway ...and the NAO is either positive or neutral. BUT as the western Canada ridge amplifies ... it will get pulled WEST because of the --EPO development. This will cause western Canada ridge to shaprens up ....which in turn will allow he PV to shift SW into Hudson's bay And THAT that in turn will allow the NAO to go Negative in January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 poor wes, being a board sounds awful. thanks, dt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 GFS looks very good at 150, instead of phasing the ULL over the Lakes it may end up acting as comfluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Looks pretty ominous at 168 if that ULL can move a bit NE we have a very potent wave in the SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Theres a lot of confluence over NE at 174 I think the cold should be locked in only so far north this low can go IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2014 Author Share Posted December 12, 2014 Its a good look. We are getting ready to go to crap graphics on it in 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Im gonna go all DT here but GFS looks wrong if that confluencw is right over NE I dont see the shortwave tracking inland like that. The setup isnt a bad one if legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Rain. Verbatim, yes it is rain, but Im just talking about the overall setup, if you want snow with this potential threat (and yes the airmass isnt the best) this was a step in the right direction. My personal opinion is if the confluence over NE is correctly depicted the shortwave wouldnt track into the Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Only two of the today's ten CPC superensemble mean D+11 analogs had snow within 3 days of the centered mean. That's pretty close to the average for the time of year. One of the analogs was Dec 1969 which was a big storm so there is some hope though it's important to point out that 80% of the analogs did not have snow. For those wondering, DC got almost 5 inches from the 1969 storm but IAD got 12. If I remember correctly DCA had mix issues but maybe howard can correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Verbatim, yes it is rain, but Im just talking about the overall setup, if you want snow with this potential threat (and yes the airmass isnt the best) this was a step in the right direction. My personal opinion is if the confluence over NE is correctly depicted the shortwave wouldnt track into the Ohio Valley. It could easily track west of us. There might be some confluence over the NE but it's not really that impressive. What we need is a 12z euro solution from yesterday. Any track into the OH valley (even if it jumps fairly quick) is going to be pretty banged up in the midlevels. Return of the PV after Xmas on the run. Looks cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Then again, like others have discussed Im not that enthused with this event...much more excited about xmas and beyond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 GFS just absolutely shreds every s/w tracking across the country with shear and fast flow. 20-21st storm gets shredded, 24th-25th gets pushed OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 It could easily track west of us. There might be some confluence over the NE but it's not really that impressive. What we need is a 12z euro solution from yesterday. Any track into the OH valley (even if it jumps fairly quick) is going to be pretty banged up in the midlevels. Return of the PV after Xmas on the run. Looks cold. Yea its not the best confluence in the workd we dont see a strong high build in behind it either which is probably why it tracks inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 It could easily track west of us. There might be some confluence over the NE but it's not really that impressive. What we need is a 12z euro solution from yesterday. Any track into the OH valley (even if it jumps fairly quick) is going to be pretty banged up in the midlevels. Return of the PV after Xmas on the run. Looks cold. The Euro has also consistently been much stronger with any 50/50 low that develops. While the GFS does show a decent setup, I don't think its 50/50 low and confluence are necessarily strong enough to lock in cold air. The Euro had a classic NW flow at 500mb leading up to the event -- that can definitely be enough to maintain a cold event. The GFS doesn't really show that, but it took a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 poor wes, being a board sounds awful. thanks, dt! I think DT is right about the storm around the 21st. It is unlikely to be snow as the NAO still is pretty positive. I have no real inclination about any later storm around xmas but worry that we still could end up with a low over the great lakes even if the low tracks to our south but that is a wag. It's way too early to think about details at that time range. The analogs do offer some hope. Beyond xmas as the PNA goes strongly positive that's when we might garner a negative NAO. That's the period I'd say right now has above normal chances of snow if the progs are right which is always a big if. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 The Euro has also consistently been much stronger with any 50/50 low that develops. While the GFS does show a decent setup, I don't think its 50/50 low and confluence are necessarily strong enough to lock in cold air. The Euro had a classic NW flow at 500mb leading up to the event -- that can definitely be enough to maintain a cold event. The GFS doesn't really show that, but it took a step in the right direction.Absolutely. It's a tough one for us down here either way. GFS shifted better but it's parallel runs it right up the OH into w ny. The euro ens are divided into whether the storm tracks into the oh vly or underneath us. We pretty much have to have an underneath track to have any shot at larger event. The hp is pretty shallow and not particularly cold. The oh vly track jumping to the coast may work for you guys but it would pollute the midlevels pretty bad down here. Would be tough to recover from as the storm tracks the coast. We can sometimes score a front thump with an oh vly track at times. So there's that chance as well. Usually ends up being a n-w of the cities/burbs deal though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Keeps looking better after Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane M. Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 One of the reasons why I am not particularly bullish about the event /threat for December 21 is that the overall pattern on a hemispheric scale ...is not very favorable. Yes the models DO show what appears to be cold HIGH in a pretty good set up ...at least for the beginning of the event. The problem is that the flow at 500 mb across Canada is Pacific and ZONAL ....and has no arctic connection. Thus the HIGH is NOT very cold and has to be the perfect ideal position when the coastal Low begins in order to keep some the precip snow. The only reason why this is potential threat to begin with is the development of the big ocean Low over southeastern Canada (the 50/50 LOW) These are excellent points, could not agree more. If you can predict the high, you can predict where it snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 been talking about this since dec 8 whooooooooooooooooooo whooooooooooooooooooooo chooooooooooooooooooooo choooooooooooooooooooooooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2014 Author Share Posted December 12, 2014 How we lookin? In all seriousness, it's good to see so many of our experts excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 12Z EuRO has the DEC 21 low going up the appalachians because the 50/50 Low over se canada leaves too soon. THis may be correct maybe ot... but the overall pattern is NOT set by dec 21 so ... like I said the dec 21 might bw snow to ice to rain... more bullish about dec 24/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 How we lookin? In all seriousness, it's good to see so many of our experts excited. If only we had a Philly subforum poster to come in and calm us down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 12Z EuRO has the DEC 21 low going up the appalachians because the 50/50 Low over se canada leaves too soon. THis may be correct maybe ot... but the overall pattern is NOT set by dec 21 som like I said the dec 21 might bw snow to ice to rain... welcome back man. I look forward to a new and improved relationship as we have both gotten a bit older and more mature! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 dude you running for office ? welcome back man. I look forward to a new and improved relationship as we have both gotten a bit older and more mature! just kidding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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