Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 I agree Ian. It doesn't have the feel of a big cold winter. And nino's are very mixed in that department so it's not very surprising. Weeklies are bad if you don't like a continuation of an active southen stream in conjunction with a -ao/nao/epo. Not big cold look but but maybe a big storm look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 I agree Ian. It doesn't have the feel of a big cold winter. And nino's are very mixed in that department so it's not very surprising. Weeklies are bad if you don't like a continuation of an active southen stream in conjunction with a -ao/nao/epo. Not big cold look but but maybe a big storm look I really enjoyed last winter with pretty much wall to wall cold and an impressive number of minor to moderate snow events. But I also enjoyed 2009-10 where only 4 events of note come to mind, but 3 of them were major/historic and the late Jan one was significant, with around 7 inches and very cold. I expect this winter to be more like the latter(not on the same scale) with a few big events and some longer periods with either cold and dry or mild and wet mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 EURO EPS si really BULLIsH ON DEC 24-25 SET UPHoly crap it's DT. Now it's a party. Welcome bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 I agree Ian. It doesn't have the feel of a big cold winter. And nino's are very mixed in that department so it's not very surprising. Weeklies are bad if you don't like a continuation of an active southen stream in conjunction with a -ao/nao/epo. Not big cold look but but maybe a big storm look I just saw Euro monthlies. Jan looks normal to a bit cold but normal precip. Feb ... rockin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 I just saw Euro monthlies. Jan looks normal to a bit cold but normal precip. Feb ... rockin'. What do the euro yearlies show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 What do the euro yearlies show The same thing as the decadalies and centuralies.We suck at snow 99% of the time. But there's that 1% chance so we are the 1%'ers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 What do the euro yearlies showi don't think there are euro yearlies.Just kidding.. asteroid hit June 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 i don't think there are euro yearlies. Just kidding.. asteroid hit June 25th. Man, this made me lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 More importantly the GFS and GEFS show decent blocking over alaska and below normal heights over us by the end of the run. I'm not going to worry about the stupid GGEM and Euro day10 underdog that looks like a February 1998 rainstorm anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 I just saw Euro monthlies. Jan looks normal to a bit cold but normal precip. Feb ... rockin'. StormVista won't let me see them. Says I need an upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 What do the euro yearlies show Ice age starting by New Years. Agrees with CFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 StormVista won't let me see them. Says I need an upgrade. I sent you an email. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 i don't think there are euro yearlies. Just kidding.. asteroid hit June 25th. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 I'd be happy with the 12z run of the Euro at 10 days being right and the he!! with anything beyond that at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Because I have every right to post where I want. I mean, you do. But it is generally advised not to come into subforms and just tell people bad news, I actually believe it is against the rules to go into another subform with the intention to troll. We understand Philly is dead, but often your analysis is simply off for this area, you have a Philly mindset. If you want to give input about the models on a subform that isn't your own, you should probably go to the banter forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 I mean, you do. But it is generally advised not to come into subforms and just tell people bad news, I actually believe it is against the rules to go into another subform with the intention to troll. We understand Philly is dead, but often your analysis is simply off for this area, you have a Philly mindset. If you want to give input about the models on a subform that isn't your own, you should probably go to the banter forum. Good post. Or... be like Highzenberg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Good post. Or... be like Highzenberg I feel like there is generally this weird exception with Highzenberg, unless he starts talking about is getting snow when he really means west of Philly. I think he just comes off more professionally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 I feel like there is generally this weird exception with Highzenberg, unless he starts talking about is getting snow when he really means west of Philly. I think he just comes off more professionally. I think he's just more careful about what he posts. I personally haven't seen him mention Philly without mentioning DC/Baltimore. Plus he doesn't criticize my obs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Because I have every right to post where I want.I won't be that sad when you are banned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 I like and welcome h-berg. He totally understands a good storm look and will post about it every time like clockwork. Idc if it's a long range op run. When he sees it he discusses it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 I like and welcome h-berg. He totally understands a good storm look and will post about it every time like clockwork. Idc if it's a long range op run. When he sees it he discusses it +100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2014 Author Share Posted December 12, 2014 We have plenty of people outside our forum come here to post.....and we all welcome them. This clown only comes here to tell us how bad it looks for snow. I can just imagine his head exploding if we got another Jan 30, 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Can't speak for elsewhere, but +0.5 and (after today) 7/11 days having mean negative departures MTD at IAD, does not necessarily a mild December make, especially when the consensus forecasts all have the second half of the month much colder. If we torch a couple days in the next week or so and finish the month with a zero departure, is it still considered mild? If so, it's basically just because our expectations from months earlier were for the icebox. Last December was like +2.5, but no one expected cold either. The fact the mild pattern has failed to deliver many mild days is very much a glass half full interpretation here. I've been on this for weeks. The models are showing too mild in the 7+ day. Upcoming Sunday-Tuesday was showing to be around 60 7 days ago. It's not snow cold but it's not supposed to be 12/1-12/10. 45, cloudy, blowing 20-40 mph, days in a row, is a long way from mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 January's where it's at. And by it I mean cold and dry suppression. These highs have been strong, the last one blocked that monster low which is still frittering around. As we move along I think suppression could become a problem but it's better problem than no cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Day 9 and 10 on tonight's EURO looks intriguing, though its prob rain. Decent HP in Quebec though (1030mb +)... this storm looks like a re-developer in that on Day 9 S IL/W KY/W TN is where the L is.. and on Day 10, its just off OBX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 GFS 6z has the Christmas storm. Maybe a Miller B setup but it really winds up for New England. An earlier phase would help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 GFS 6z has the Christmas storm. Maybe a Miller B setup but it really winds up for New England. An earlier phase would help. that is close but that is often our story here...a phase late and a block short...but maybe some mood flakes on the big day...I would take that and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Day 9 and 10 on tonight's EURO looks intriguing, though its prob rain. Decent HP in Quebec though (1030mb +)... this storm looks like a re-developer in that on Day 9 S IL/W KY/W TN is where the L is.. and on Day 10, its just off OBXWeird solution. Storm cuts all the way into the Ohio valley. Then is forced under the high and redevelops off nc but it's squashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 These highs have been strong, the last one blocked that monster low which is still frittering around. As we move along I think suppression could become a problem but it's better problem than no cold air. The High this week was very strong. There were some very cold readings in New England before the storm. Even here we did not get above freezing for the high on Monday. If the storm came in 12-18 earlier most here would have gotten a quick thump. Pretty nice to see that kind of high pressure when Canada is running warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Euro ensembles are mixed but actually support a chance of snow more than 12z. Typically when our area is depending on a key transient feature to make things work it's best to always take the under. Especially at 5+ day leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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