December Med/Long Range Disco

[Bob Chill]

You give up on Maue, Bob?

 

nah, i don't feel right posting the euro maps. I saw a van with men is black suits on my street. Thought the euro police were coming for me. I'll stop following the rules as soon as we're in the middle of a great pattern and not chasing one from 3 months out. lol. plus it's easier to link tidbits instead of uploading.

[WinterWxLuvr]

The GFS was a great improvement in this time frame as well.  That's why I was surprised when nobody mentioned it.

[H2O]

This is what I see in that pic

 

[Bob Chill]

This is what I see in that pic

 

ecmwf_z500a_us_11.png

 

I kinda saw this (o)(o)

[WxUSAF]

And the 21st mecs can turn into a 50/50 for the xmas hecs entering the west

 

 

That's been my plan all along.  

[Ji]

its been at 240 hour range now for about 3 straight days

[Bob Chill]

Op run has some ok support from the ensembles. Precip panels show that some members track further N (into the oh valley) than the op. But the d10 precip panel shows a coastal low for sure. 

 

[DTWXRISK]

 As usual. thats total  bullsh!t 

 

its been at 240 hour range now for about 3 straight days

[DTWXRISK]

    um dude  look at  upper air maps .. there is HUGE  50 /50 Low  over  se canada... that h HIGH is NOT moving anywhere and it certaINLY is NOT  scooting east at all

 

High scooting east. what we don't see is temps rising to 35 during the day and it raining at the end. 

[DTWXRISK]

The 12z  (midday run) of the afternoon European models come out and does come up with a interesting solution for day 10 which of the December 21.  There are essentially three different systems coming at us from the southern jet stream over the next two weeks.

 

The first system  is December 17  and the overall pattern and data suggest this Low is  going to track up the Ohio Valley...  Then across Northern New England into southeastern Canada.  This should be a rain event for everybody up and down the East Coast....  and probably even for the mountains.

 

 

The second event  is December 21 which does look significantly colder  then  DEC 17.  from my  overnight analysis it appeared that this system  will track along the   East coast  as a rain  I-.95. snow for the mountains and mixed over  inland/ Piedmont areas 

 

 

The third system is the one for December  24.  I remain particularly bullish about the system given how far out in time it is for a number  of different reasons. 

 

All that being said the midday European model has come out with a new wrinkle with regard to the 12/21  East coast Low.  The model ends up keep the cold HIGH in place over the eastern Great Lakes and Western Quebec Canada  on 12/20 and 12/21  and at the same time the  Low in the southern jet stream  comes  out of   TX  ARK LA and   stays  SOUTH reaching the NC coast on 12/21.

This sets the stage for what the  EURO model is  depicting as a significant East Coast snowstorm from the VA/ NC  border all way up into a good portion of New England.  The model.. NOT ME ... THE  MODEL ..  shows significant snowfall accumulations or  implies it for much of the I-95 cities. 

 

We can see this here on the first image.  The  WHITE line represents is  the  0c  850mb   isotherm 

The second image is a enlarged view of the Middle Atlantic region with more detail...   Th

 

The third image is the upper air    500mb of the European model on December  20 showing how this model comes to a solution which produces an East Coast snowstorm.  In this case with the critical feature is the system that goes through the Ohio Valley  12/17.   By  12/20  that Low goes BOOOOM!  Over southeastern Canada and becomes an enormous winter storm for nova Scotia and Newfoundland.  This feature is refer to in the weather business as a  50 / 50 LOW and is critical  with regard to looking for the overall pattern which might support and east coast snowstorm.

 

 

In this case what that Low over southeastern Canada is doing  - the  50/50 Low - is that it  blocks or traps   the  cold HIGH over  the eastern Great Lakes and  western  Quebec  from leaving and moving out into the North Atlantic Ocean.  As a result the cold air stays in place as far south as the ViA/ NC border  -- again according to what this model is showing. 

I am somewhat skeptical about this particular solution but I do not rule it out.  My view was that the something like this was going to happen but a few days later.  I was thinking that this  Low on 12/21 was going to move up into southeastern Canada and become the big  50/50 Low  for ther  12/24 threat.  Therefore I am not convinced that the big snowstorm threat is going to occur with this system on  12/21 as opposed to the one on12/24.  If the model continues to show consistency with the system I may change my mind.

 

BOTTOM LINE ...  if some winter weather lovers  and weenies  could look pass their own internal agony of a mild December... they would see that the fact that we have   already seen 4 significant coastal storms  -3 of which which have been Noreasters-  is indicative of a very stormy pattern and a very active winter.    What we need now with the cold air pattern to return and as long as the southern stream means active....  which it will because of the weak El Nino ...the  East coast winter storm threat is going to remain quite high  for most of January February and march. 

 

[Ian]

DEEEEETEEEEEE!

[DTWXRISK]

 EURO  EPS  si really   BULLIsH  ON DEC 24-25  SET UP 

[Ian]

    um dude  look at  upper air maps .. there is HUGE  50 /50 Low  over  se canada... that h HIGH is NOT moving anywhere and it certaINLY is NOT  scooting east at all

 

my comment was after a 30 second glance since it's freaking day 10 and i don't really give a **** what it says at day 10. but if you put your finger on the H it does indeed scoot east. there are other h's behind it tho. 

[AlaskaETC]

Ji gets called out by DT himself. Classic.

[Ji]

DEEEEETEEEEEE!

yea your high isnt sliding east. Thats the generic statement to make in our area:)

[Ji]

Ji gets called out by DT himself. Classic.

it took one post!

[Ian]

yea your high isnt sliding east. Thats the generic statement to make in our area:)

like i said it was a quick glance.. the front running high is moving east. but there's more high pressure north/northwest. 

 

i forgot how serious you all are about day 10 fantasy. 

[Ji]

like i said it was a quick glance.. the front running high is moving east. but there's more high pressure north/northwest. 

 

i forgot how serious you all are about day 10 fantasy. 

its the only fantasy we have...id prefer a 2 day fantasy but its not in the cards

[AlaskaETC]

Meanwhile, CFSv2 gives favorable temperatures for January, but says no bueno with precipitation...

[Bob Chill]

Euro ensembles have 2 camps for the most part. One with and one without a well placed 50/50 feature. There aren't 2 lows. There are just 2 ideas where the low goes from the gulf coast. 

 

[RIC_WX]

Can't speak for elsewhere, but +0.5 and (after today) 7/11 days having mean negative departures MTD at IAD, does not necessarily a mild December make, especially when the consensus forecasts all have the second half of the month much colder.

 

If we torch a couple days in the next week or so and finish the month with a zero departure, is it still considered mild?  If so, it's basically just because our expectations from months earlier were for the icebox.  Last December was like +2.5, but no one expected cold either.

 

The fact the mild pattern has failed to deliver many mild days is very much a glass half full interpretation here.

[Ji]

everytime we need to get a 50/50..we get a 0/0. Not expecting much until the last week of Dec

[CAPE]

everytime we need to get a 50/50..we get a 0/0. Not expecting much until the last week of Dec

Agree. Maybe everything works out perfectly and some places locally get some snow before Xmas, but it doesn't look like the pattern is going to be quite there yet. 

[Ian]

January's where it's at. 

 

And by it I mean cold and dry suppression. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

January's where it's at.

And by it I mean cold and dry suppression.

And that's the worst of the worst. I'd much rather take my chances with temps than with precip. That's the beauty of seeing these systems modeled to be rolling through...they likely will deliver precip

[TeleConnectSnow]

Gfs looks like blah

[CAPE]

Gfs looks like blah

You might want to work on the quality of your posts. Or dont post anything.

[TeleConnectSnow]

You might want to work on the quality of your posts. Or dont post anything.

Ok, The 18z GFS doesn't look nearly like an ideal setup for any significant snow with this time period. First one doesn't have a block or high so it cuts through us, second one is suppression city.

So in turn, this run was blah.

[CAPE]

Ok, The 18z GFS doesn't look nearly like an ideal setup for any significant snow with this time period. First one doesn't have a block or high so it cuts through us, second one is suppression city.

So in turn, this run was blah.

So? Its one op run of the GFS and you are looking at a day 10 potential event. Try reading and learning... there really are some knowledgeable folks around here.

[Ian]

And that's the worst of the worst. I'd much rather take my chances with temps than with precip. That's the beauty of seeing these systems modeled to be rolling through...they likely will deliver precip

I don't totally disagree except that your climo is way better than mine in marginal situations. January has been a cold/dry/windy month more than anything lately.. or at least that's how it's felt.. there are some decent storms intermixed.  I dunno.. I kinda doubt we're going to get locked into big cold for super long. I think the really cold winter forecasts might be in more trouble than the snowy ones.. though at the same time if we do get the AO/NAO to cooperate -- and I think we will -- the cold could be solid.  It's early and stupid to take much from early..  but it just doesn't have the feel of a winter that's going to plunge us to -3 to -5 for a 4 week stretch.. or maybe I hope not at least lol.

 

But in the end.. If we keep the southern stream rolling even down here we'll do well at some point I'm sure.