Deck Pic Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 This December reminds me a bit of December 2004 which finished +0.4, and had very few snow opportunities...I had one event, but it was a glorified cartopper...This pattern is more stable than that one....but same feel... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 No harm, no foul Bob I was just trying to make sure you were awake because I saw that DT was actually taking it seriously for a while, lol... That's a more accurate statement. Can't argue w/ that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2014 Author Share Posted December 11, 2014 This December reminds me a bit of December 2004 which finished +0.4, and had very few snow opportunities...I had one event, but it was a glorified cartopper...This pattern is more stable than that one....but same feel... How did that winter turn out in this area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 looks like a very realistic h5 setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 This post is in honor of Mitch And it gets better Those CFS progs for the last week of December are lovely Nino climo and make sense based on the progression we're hopefully going to see. There's something wrong w/ the 21-25 day CFSv2... It literally has the entire northern hemisphere below normal, w/ negative height anomalies everywhere (not sure why I'd even base any forecast or ideas at a range beyond 2 weeks tops, much less 3-4 weeks on this piece of crap anyway). Looks like an inherent error in the model, not a forecast for cold... You know JB's gonna be all over that! #globalcooling #voterandpaul2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 average. 18" on the dot at BWI. A trace in DEC, 7.6 in JAN and 10.0 in FEB. How did that winter turn out in this area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 How did that winter turn out in this area? We had a pretty solid 2nd half...though no big storms.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 04-05 was my first year in leesburg...I remember some pretty warm January days....ended up around 20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 It can start to get very frustrating when you are expecting the pattern to change and there is a parade of storms to accompany the change and it always become the next one or the one after that. Let's hope hope that's not the case. The first in this series as mentioned already will probably be too difficult to deliver, but I'd really like to see some frozen with the second one. If everyone has to wait for the third system then things may not be progressing as we hoped. Just a thought not a prediction. We've seen situations where we had one huge barreling low cut through the lakes and change the pattern instantly. then we've also seen a progressive change through a series of miller b's and then BAM miller a! Lets hope this is the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 fear not! https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/543055480713920512 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 04-05 was my first year in leesburg...I remember some pretty warm January days....ended up around 20" It wasn't a cold winter...though not torch either..all 3 months were a smidge above normal...DCA finished +0.4 for the winter...But it wasn't a very stable pattern....Here are my stats for Mt. Pleasant..solid back half...but nothing other than a cartopper or 2 until 1/19..Of course there was the big bust on 1/23 and another semi-bust on 2/24 when we had a big gulf low that never really amplified and produced like was predicted...we had snow for 24 hours straight though which was pretty cool. felt very wintry. 2004-05: 17.0" 1/19/05: 2.0", 1/22/05: 3.25", 1/24/05: 0.25", 1/29-30/05: 2.5", 2/3/05: 0.25", 2/24/05: 4.5", 2/28/05: 3.25", 3/8/05: 1.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 This December reminds me a bit of December 2004 which finished +0.4, and had very few snow opportunities...I had one event, but it was a glorified cartopper...This pattern is more stable than that one....but same feel... Merry Christmas and Congratulations ORF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2014 Author Share Posted December 11, 2014 So nobody comments on the GFS? Tough crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 So nobody comments on the GFS? Tough crowd. 0.01" precip through 180? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Merry Christmas and Congratulations ORF Nothing like a stocking full of suppression after a month of rainy coastals...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2014 Author Share Posted December 11, 2014 0.01" precip through 180? From 180 onward is where I was looking. I thought the prevailing opinion was that the next week was pretty much a wash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 fear not! https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/543055480713920512 Whew! A Trusted snow weenie on board! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 The last panel of the GEFS is a good one, gets us a PNA and negative NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Merry Christmas and Congratulations ORF That was a really good storm but for such a small area...some 12" amounts though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 I'll gladly take a repeat of 04-05.... it sucked for all of us especially when you looked north but from what I know, it was bad luck more than anything else. If it happened again then DCA would probably get 20"+ for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 LR EURO looks very improved for Day 8 beyond...Storm coming out of the gulf at 204 hours with a 50/50 low and HP around the Lakes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Euro is nearly a best case scenario with mid level temps and hp placement to the N. Still a dicey setup but at least we can dream about it for 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Euro is nearly a best case scenario with mid level temps and hp placement to the N. Still a dicey setup but at least we can dream about it for 12 hours. Haha...basically perfect for the 21st storm. The 18th-19th storm gets strong enough, parks itself at 50/50 and holds in the cold air so that big s/w can bowling ball across. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 High scooting east. what we don't see is temps rising to 35 during the day and it raining at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 High scooting east. what we don't see is temps rising to 35 during the day and it raining at the end. Bending summer squash hp is better than a banana. We're gonna get crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 People might almost like my outlook today. Hope the runs continue the trend though I'd be surprised if the euro looked the same the next run. As Bob noted, that's about the best look we can get for snow with this pattern that quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 High scooting east. what we don't see is temps rising to 35 during the day and it raining at the end. High moving east is fine as long as h5 track is over us and not too far north or south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 High moving east is fine as long as h5 track is over us and not too far north or south. yeah could be. looks OK. then again it's hr 240 and not here yet.. so.. yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Haha...basically perfect for the 21st storm. The 18th-19th storm gets strong enough, parks itself at 50/50 and holds in the cold air so that big s/w can bowling ball across. And the 21st mecs can turn into a 50/50 for the xmas hecs entering the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 You give up on Maue, Bob? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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