mitchnick Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 You easterners would miss us westerners if we were gone. There will be a storm that shafts us and creams you guys sooner or later. Let's try an experiment then........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 12z GGEM has a Miller A cooking Day 9 and 10 with a 1006 L in E GA and a 1032 H in Quebec... I think it comes up some... not sure if it would be a southern slider (as in precip gets to us but not much further north)... its VERY juicy and its pounding snow in W NC/S W VA at 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 You easterners would miss us westerners if we were gone. There will be a storm that shafts us and creams you guys sooner or later. Yeah, that happens a lot. Makes you wanna live in downtown DC, doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 The whole we're heading for a historic snow and cold thing was overplayed to some extent. It's not that simple and we haven't hit back to back + climo for 27 years (30+ if you take away the freak vet storm). We could do it this year for sure but that fact alone is a red flag regardless of just about every early indicator being in our favor. I think we can still get a +climo/historical winter in JFM if the Nino patterns serves us well, just my wild guess though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Yeah, that happens a lot. Makes you wanna live in downtown DC, doesn't it? Well downtown certainly has more good restaurants and bars than way out west. That almost outweighs the lack of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I still think it's too early to worry about a December shutout. Nothing's clicking. Given that the extended GFS past 300 hours is just a smidge better than climatology, nothing is clicking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Nothing's clicking. Given that the extended GFS past 300 hours is just a smidge better than climatology, nothing is clicking. Uh... Euro/GGEM have signs of a Miller A 240-264 hrs out,,, I wouldnt really use the GFS for climo IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Uh... Euro/GGEM have signs of a Miller A 240-264 hrs out,,, I wouldnt really use the GFS for climo IMO Don't forget euro ensembles have a nice signal and the para also had it except for a stupid GL low causing temp issues. With that being said, it's going to be dicey with temps regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 These southern stream s/w's progged by the models are strong and they're all picking up on them in roughly the same time frames. 18-19th, 21st-22nd, 25th more or less. Can't go much beyond that. We know we're probably looking at a marginally sufficient airmass for snow, at best, before the 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Don't forget euro ensembles have a nice signal and the para also had it except for a stupid GL low causing temp issues. With that being said, it's going to be dicey with temps regardless. Quite likely... 12z GGEM looks like the classic "thread the needle" run as the low comes up at pretty much at the exact time the H in Quebec moves in Will be intriguing to see what the ensembles say as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Nothing's clicking. Given that the extended GFS past 300 hours is just a smidge better than climatology, nothing is clicking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I still think it's too early to worry about a December shutout. this. its only the 10th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I still think it's too early to worry about a December shutout. Definitely way too early. If you go back to Jan. 87 everyone on the board would have been in total panic mode until the last 8-10 days of that month. Things can turn for the better or worse in a minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Definitely way too early. If you go back to Jan. 87 everyone on the board would have been in total panic mode until the last 8-10 days of that month. Things can turn for the better or worse next week FTFY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 It's been 27 years since you guys have had back to back +climo winters? +climo = 150% If you're doing 150% then 86-87/87-88 doesn't even work at BWI, as 1987-88 was only a mere 0.3 inches over climo. If you want back-to-back 150%, you need to go all the way back to 1977-78/1978-79 winters; and before that, the last one was 1965-66/1966-67. The last time we really had a string of several above average winters was in the 1960's and late 1800's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 FTFY Tony Pann had some snow showers for tonight centered over Parkton. RPM model shows a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 12z GGEM has a Miller A cooking Day 9 and 10 with a 1006 L in E GA and a 1032 H in Quebec... I think it comes up some... not sure if it would be a southern slider (as in precip gets to us but not much further north)... its VERY juicy and its pounding snow in W NC/S W VA at 240 It's definitely not a southern slider...as depicted we would get smoked with that track..Western NC and SW VA are already getting clobbered ..obviously doesn't mean much at day 10...the Para and GFS have it too, but it is warm rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Any takers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Any takers? Lookie some things ARE clicking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Lookie some things ARE clicking. This is about the least amount of spread you'll see at this lead with the GEFS. Wow. Very strong support for anomalous ridging and potential -AO down the line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2014 Author Share Posted December 10, 2014 The day 9-10 storm (some variation) is on every gfs member that I can see at PSU site. At this point a storm in that time frame seems like a strong possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Any takers? That looks like some cold to be delivered. I will take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2014 Author Share Posted December 10, 2014 Well downtown certainly has more good restaurants and bars than way out west. That almost outweighs the lack of snow. We have some pretty good bars and eating places here........not as many as DC obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Well downtown certainly has more good restaurants and bars than way out west. That almost outweighs the lack of snow. Almost Wes. Almost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 This is about the least amount of spread you'll see at this lead with the GEFS. Wow. Very strong support for anomalous ridging and potential -AO down the line Also hints of -NAO developing going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Canadian is a good model esp at day 10 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/540739355506012161 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Well downtown certainly has more good restaurants and bars than way out west. That almost outweighs the lack of snow. This seriously had be bust up laughing!! Almost Wes. Almost. Nevertheless, more good bars means more choices to drown our sorrows when we miss out on snow! Gotta look at the silver lining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Canadian is a good model esp at day 10 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/540739355506012161 CMC = Constantly Making (bogus) Cyclones BTW, lock on that Day 10 storm, that's the day I come back from Fargo for break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Also hints of -NAO developing going forward. Was thinking the same thing, if that signal is correct in the ensembles. Definitely appears to be ridging trying to poke up toward Greenland on a lot of those. On a related note as others have said, that's one heck of a signal for a storm. Whether we get any snow out of it remains to be seen of course, but that's some serious agreement among the members at that time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Canadian is a good model esp at day 10 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/540739355506012161 I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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