WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Euro looks like its trying to develop a Gulf Miller A day 10.... Don't you pay the big bucks to find out what happens for days 11-15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Euro looks like its trying to develop a Gulf Miller A day 10.... Sort of looks like it... I see a 1008 L south of LA and h5 ridge looks like its in a good place out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Don't you pay the big bucks to find out what happens for days 11-15? Ensemble mslp with low locations panels have a decent signal for a gom-obx track d10-12. The caveat is the hp location on the means is over and north of Maine. Verbatim it looks problenatic with the high sliding east. Definitely worth watching though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Ensemble mslp with low locations panels have a decent signal for a gom-obx track d10-12. The caveat is the hp location on the means is over and north of Maine. Verbatim it looks problenatic with the high sliding east. Definitely worth watching though. At this stage, I'm not too particular with the details of the track. I'm satisfied that we're probably going to have 3 storm chances before Christmas with increasing snow odds each time as the previous storms bring colder air south. Getting snow out of one of these (most likely the 2nd or 3rd) will probably require the prior one being strong enough to drag some cold air behind it and then serve as a transient 50/50 to set up confluence to our north and try to hold those retreating highs in place long enough. I still think odds are better that we get some snow after Christmas and before New Year's with the cold air filling Canada and the northern tier by that period. The ridge bridge you mentioned yesterday is present on all the ensembles by around the 21st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Some of the weaker solutions look have decent look for a lighter event with stronger hp in better spots. I agree, have 3 chances spaced over a week to 10 days and it changes the odds for sure. I'd be happy with any event that gives dca over an inch. Even if it's messy. Snow climo starts favoring us and not fighting us by the 20th . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 The 6-12 for State College he had today didn't work out. Nice image. In his defense, he actually had a whole post on WxBell Premium on how he always makes a Central PA snow bust. He said he did it in the 70's, and he still does it today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Some of the weaker solutions look have decent look for a lighter event with stronger hp in better spots. I agree, have 3 chances spaced over a week to 10 days and it changes the odds for sure. I'd be happy with any event that gives dca over an inch. Even if it's messy. Snow climo starts favoring us and not fighting us by the 20th . I get the feeling a lot of our storms will be messy this year in light of what we've been seeing. But I will say, those deep low pressures off the Atlantic coast, regardless of our sensible weather from them, sure put a sparkle in my eyes. I've got to believe 1, if not 2, should hit pay dirt for us over the course of the next 3 months. Which leads me to a 86/87 analog I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 In his defense, he actually had a whole post on WxBell Premium on how he always makes a Central PA snow bust. He said he did it in the 70's, and he still does it today.Well if it's for the sake of continuity... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Well if it's for the sake of continuity... Snow weenies like backyard jackpots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I get the feeling a lot of our storms will be messy this year in light of what we've been seeing. But I will say, those deep low pressures off the Atlantic coast, regardless of our sensible weather from them, sure put a sparkle in my eyes. I've got to believe 1, if not 2, should hit pay dirt for us over the course of the next 3 months. Which leads me to a 86/87 analog I guess. GEFS (right or wrong) has been increasingly bullish about turning the AO negative around the 20th. This is the 6z member plot But the NAO remains stubborn as supported by just about all guidance. We're going to have to keep chasing that elusive ghost. We should be very used to it after 3 years straight...lol Euro isn't that different in amplitude and timing. Drops to near neutral around the 20th but big spread in both directions (range of +3 to -3 SDs) Based on numerical data and our typical climo it's easy to envision a flawed snow threat possibility. The only way to lock in cold is what WxUSAF said. Transient feature in the right place at the right time. If something were to threaten in the 20-23rd timeframe my total wag would be a mixed bag at best. The trend towards a more neg AO during that time could mean better cold air available at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 GEFS (right or wrong) has been increasingly bullish about turning the AO negative around the 20th. This is the 6z member plot gefsaomembers.JPG But the NAO remains stubborn as supported by just about all guidance. We're going to have to keep chasing that elusive ghost. We should be very used to it after 3 years straight...lol gefsnaomembers.JPG Euro isn't that different in amplitude and timing. Drops to near neutral around the 20th but big spread in both directions (range of +3 to -3 SDs) Based on numerical data and our typical climo it's easy to envision a flawed snow threat possibility. The only way to lock in cold is what WxUSAF said. Transient feature in the right place at the right time. If something were to threaten in the 20-23rd timeframe my total wag would be a mixed bag at best. The trend towards a more neg AO during that time could mean better cold air available at least. good stuff Bob, thanks my recollection is that the 2 storms in 1/87 weren't perfect set-ups for us, especially the 1st one in fact, I recall the storm shutting off right before it looked to taint where I was living south of BWI anyway, I'll take my chances with a -AO and fook the NAO if it doesn't want to cooperate, so hopefully the progs are right wrt the -AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 There's probably no correlation but I was interested in how well a Dec. snow shutout (assuming we even get one) corresponds to overall seasonal snow. So... There were 25 Decembers at BWI that were a snow shutout (O or T). Of those 25, only 9 went on to have above average snow. Since 1950, its only happened 3 times: 1954, 1966, and 1987. 1954 did have 5.9 inches in Nov. which really boosted the seasonal total, but 1966 and 1987 were Nov. shutouts too. Interestingly enough, all three were El Nino events, so maybe this is something for weenies to hang their hat on. Edit: Its actually happened 4 times since 1950, not 3... I forgot 1979. But that was a neutral event, not El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2014 Author Share Posted December 10, 2014 That gulf storm possibility is literally all over the 6z gfs members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 There's probably no correlation but I was interested in how well a Dec. snow shutout (assuming we even get one) corresponds to overall seasonal snow. So... There were 25 Decembers at BWI that were a snow shutout (O or T). Of those 25, only 9 went on to have above average snow. Since 1950, its only happened 3 times: 1954, 1966, and 1987. 1954 did have 5.9 inches in Nov. which really boosted the seasonal total, but 1966 and 1987 were Nov. shutouts too. Interestingly enough, all three were El Nino events, so maybe this is something for weenies to hang their hat on. Interesting. Was planning on looking at DCA similarly this weekend.. plus a few other things. IMO getting shut out thru Dec (if it happens) means we prob won't have a truly historic winter at the least. But that could be wrong of course. Of course as noted like 2 weeks ago it only takes like 3 hours of heavy snow to get to avg to date so hard to be super upset yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2014 Author Share Posted December 10, 2014 Interesting. Was planning on looking at DCA similarly this weekend.. plus a few other things. IMO getting shut out thru Dec (if it happens) means we prob won't have a truly historic winter at the least. But that could be wrong of course. Of course as noted like 2 weeks ago it only takes like 3 hours of heavy snow to get to avg to date so hard to be super upset yet. I'm pretty happy with winter so far. 2 WWA's, 1 WSW, 1 snow event (4.5), 2 sleet/fr rain events (yesterday was a very pretty event). All in all, pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I'm pretty happy with winter so far. 2 WWA's, 1 WSW, 1 snow event (4.5), 2 sleet/fr rain events (yesterday was a very pretty event). All in all, pretty good. Good argument for you to be in another subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Interesting. Was planning on looking at DCA similarly this weekend.. plus a few other things. IMO getting shut out thru Dec (if it happens) means we prob won't have a truly historic winter at the least. But that could be wrong of course. Of course as noted like 2 weeks ago it only takes like 3 hours of heavy snow to get to avg to date so hard to be super upset yet. At out latitude it probably doesn't make much difference. DCA can hit climo with 2 events. The other side of the case is there are plenty of examples of 2"+ in DC in Dec that didn't hit climo for the year. 7 out of the last 15 years alone. Feb is clearly our make or break month in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Good argument for you to be in another subforum. No doubt. That could not be more different from inside the beltways. We are pretty much 0 on all those counts, other than white rain basically ahead of Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 No doubt. That could not be more different from inside the beltways. We are pretty much 0 on all those counts, other than white rain basically ahead of Thanksgiving. BWI didn't do bad in November. They hit their average (?) of .3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 There's probably no correlation but I was interested in how well a Dec. snow shutout (assuming we even get one) corresponds to overall seasonal snow. So... There were 25 Decembers at BWI that were a snow shutout (O or T). Of those 25, only 9 went on to have above average snow. Since 1950, its only happened 3 times: 1954, 1966, and 1987. 1954 did have 5.9 inches in Nov. which really boosted the seasonal total, but 1966 and 1987 were Nov. shutouts too. Interestingly enough, all three were El Nino events, so maybe this is something for weenies to hang their hat on. Edit: Its actually happened 4 times since 1950, not 3... I forgot 1979. But that was a neutral event, not El Nino. Just a detail, but are you sure about 1966? Christmas eve and all.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Just a detail, but are you sure about 1966? Christmas eve and all.... I should probably clarify that I'm referring to the winter season, not that December. So I mean 1953-54, 1965-66, 1978-79, and 1986-87. Sorry if that was confusing. You're thinking of 1966-67 winter, which did have a record snowfall on Christmas Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I'm pretty happy with winter so far. 2 WWA's, 1 WSW, 1 snow event (4.5), 2 sleet/fr rain events (yesterday was a very pretty event). All in all, pretty good. lol I guess you are. You are also in a different world weather wise than most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I still think it's too early to worry about a December shutout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I had about .5" the day before Thanksgiving. Considering I don't expect much in the way of snow until the 3rd-4th week of December, I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 At out latitude it probably doesn't make much difference. DCA can hit climo with 2 events. The other side of the case is there are plenty of examples of 2"+ in DC in Dec that didn't hit climo for the year. 7 out of the last 15 years alone. Feb is clearly our make or break month in general. Yeah I wouldn't necessarily take a ton from it. Though our recent historic winters were doing better than this one at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2014 Author Share Posted December 10, 2014 You easterners would miss us westerners if we were gone. There will be a storm that shafts us and creams you guys sooner or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Yeah I wouldn't necessarily take a ton from it. Though our recent historic winters were doing better than this one at this point. The whole we're heading for a historic snow and cold thing was overplayed to some extent. It's not that simple and we haven't hit back to back + climo for 27 years (30+ if you take away the freak vet storm). We could do it this year for sure but that fact alone is a red flag regardless of just about every early indicator being in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 The whole we're heading for a historic snow and cold thing was overplayed to some extent. It's not that simple and we haven't hit back to back + climo for 27 years (30+ if you take away the freak vet storm). We could do it this year for sure but that fact alone is a red flag regardless of just about every early indicator being in our favor. It's been 27 years since you guys have had back to back +climo winters? +climo = 150% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 It's been 27 years since you guys have had back to back +climo winters? +climo = 150% Yep, 86-87 / 87-88. If we didn't get blasted with the freak vet day storm in Nov of 87 then that year would have been below climo as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Yep, 86-87 / 87-88. If we didn't get blasted with the freak vet day storm in Nov of 87 then that year would have been below climo as well. Just means you guys are overdue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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