Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 See? It's not all doom and gloom. I'm a visual person. When I see nothing but crap it makes me nervous. And the 12z euro ens is visually appealing. Pac jet gets shut off, +pna, and goa trough goes bye bye. Time to start tracking a white christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I'm a visual person. When I see nothing but crap it makes me nervous. And the 12z euro ens is visually appealing. Pac jet gets shut off, +pna, and goa trough goes bye bye. Time to start tracking a white christmas. Yes! Finally nice to start seeing some red colors up into AK instead of the dreaded blue heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I'm a visual person. When I see nothing but crap it makes me nervous. And the 12z euro ens is visually appealing. Pac jet gets shut off, +pna, and goa trough goes bye bye. Time to start tracking a white christmas. I will be visiting the old home town and going to my daughters graduation at VT the week before Christmas.. so let the dumping start on Dec 23rd.. I am going to rent an AWD auto just in case as the I-81 trip from Winchester to Blacksburg can be hell in bad weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 This is an excellent pattern so far. Strong high pressures to the north but it's just that -10 departures will not do it right now, later on different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Kinda on the edge of short/medium range for the next week event. I guess most of the discussion is still here for now. Mount Holly seems a bit too bullish (to me) on potential wintry weather for this storm. My forecast has rain/snow for Mon night and Tues, and snow showers Tuesday night. This looks like an interior event for frozen stuff and mostly from north central PA up into NE. Interesting from their AFD: MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING A CLASSIC SETUP FOR EAST COASTCYCLOGENISIS IN THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME /D+4/. SEPARATE NORTHERN ANDSOUTHERN STREAM S/WVS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EPAC WILL CRESTOVER A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE WEST COAST OF NOAM ONSATURDAY. A SERIES OF VIGOROUS S/WV DISTURBANCES OVER THE NPACWILL RAPIDLY INCREASE THE AMPLITUDE OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE LATERIN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO DOWNSTREAMTROUGHING ACROSS THE E CONUS DURING THE TUE - WED TIME FRAME. THEMAIN SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IS TWO FOLD. FIRST...HOW WILL THE MODELS RESOLVE MULTIPLE VORTICITY MAXIMA AS THISAFFECTS THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH...AND THE SUBSEQUENT TIMING ANDLOCATION OF CYCLOGENISIS. SECOND...HOW WILL THE MODELS RESOLVE ASECONDARY S/WV /CURRENTLY OVER THE ALEUTIANS/ DIVING INTO THE MSVALLEY ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH...POSSIBLY LEADING TO ACLOSING OFF OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WHICH WOULD IMPLY ASLOWER MOVING STORM BY MID-WEEK.THE ECMWF/UKMET/GFS AND CMC ALL AGREE ON A DEEP E CONUS TROUGH THATBECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED AND CLOSES OFF BY 00Z WED. WITH REGARD TOTHE TRACK...THE CMC HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE FURTHEST WEST RIGHTALONG THE COAST AND THE EURO HAS NOW JOINED IT...WHILE THE UKMET ISBETWEEN THE CMC/ECMWF AND THE 40N, 70W BENCHMARK. THE GFS REMAINSAN OUTLIER WITH A TRACK MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...BECAUSE ITKEEPS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY TO THE NORTH ALONG THE US-CANADIANBORDER...WHICH IS UNREALISTIC GIVEN EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN. THEECENS FAVORS A TRACK INVOF THE BENCHMARK AND CLOSE TO HALF OF THEGEFS MEMBERS FAVOR THE ECENS BENCHMARK SOLUTION OR SLIGHTLY TOTHE SOUTHEAST. WE`RE STILL AT THE D+4 TO D+5 RANGE...SO CANNOTLOCK ON TO ANY PARTICULAR MODEL OR TREND IN THE TRACK. IT/S ALSOINTERESTING TO NOTE THAT EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...THE NAO ISPREDICTED TO GO BRIEFLY NEGATIVE TO POSITIVE...A SIGNATUREASSOCIATED WITH EAST COAST CYCLOGENISIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 This is an excellent pattern so far. Strong high pressures to the north but it's just that -10 departures will not do it right now, later on different story. Grate analasis....thanx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 18z GFS took a huge step toward the Euro evolution of the storm next week. Not that its worth anything for us but scattered sprinkleflurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Gfs should be scrapped for metal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Gfs should be scrapped for metal. Plastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I was at my parents and forced to endure 6pm local news (gags). Tony Pann says it might snow next week. woohoo. At least he didn't go all JMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 This is an excellent pattern so far. Strong high pressures to the north but it's just that -10 departures will not do it right now, later on different story. Rain falling with a high barometer reading has been kind of a hallmark this season. I agree it's an important and atypical clue you don't hear so much about, and would love the persistence to leave us on the powdery NW fringe of the storm track in January and February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Gfs should be scrapped for metal. It's Friday night. Sounds like you need a drink. Obligatory weather content: seems like any positive pattern change is maybe late the week after next? Around the 19th-20th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Even the NAM had a storm before the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 It's Friday night. Sounds like you need a drink. Obligatory weather content: seems like any positive pattern change is maybe late next week? Around the 19th-20th? Yeah the week after next.... I would hope by the 20th we would at least be seeing some sensible changes. Right now its just way out there modeled hints of better times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2014 Author Share Posted December 6, 2014 Even the NAM had a storm before the GFS. And was terribly slow to the party on the Thanksgiving storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Yeah the week after next.... I would hope by the 20th we would at least be seeing some sensible changes. Right now its just way out there modeled hints of better times. Thanks for the catch, fixed my original post. 18z GEFS is the best look I've yet seen. This is a nice looking pattern, not just a step above the crud that's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 And was terribly slow to the party on the Thanksgiving storm I have no idea as I wasn't paying that much attention. The NAM is obviously way out of its wheelhouse(if it even has one), but even the 12z run @ 84 hours it has a pretty good developing low on the SE coast. The GFS still had all its eggs in the NS basket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Stupid GL low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Stupid GL low Yeah. I just featured it in a poem in the amazing Tenman snow love thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 LWX has my Point-and-Click forecast highs below normal every day until next Friday. If that's the worst this bad pattern is gonna deliver, I'm dealing just fine. It's been wet and chilly for weeks now. Can't ask for much better from early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Thanks for the catch, fixed my original post. 18z GEFS is the best look I've yet seen. This is a nice looking pattern, not just a step above the crud that's coming. Yep, gefs looks good. Very similar to the 12z euro ens. Especially in the goa/western canada/AK area. It's moved forward in time since the early hints yesterday. Hopefully that doesn't reverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 LWX has my Point-and-Click forecast highs below normal every day until next Friday. If that's the worst this bad pattern is gonna deliver, I'm dealing just fine. It's been wet and chilly for weeks now. Can't ask for much better from early December. The talk about the "horrible pattern" has gone mostly theoretical at this point and is sort of decoupled from reality on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 The talk about the "horrible pattern" has gone mostly theoretical at this point and is sort of decoupled from reality on the ground. It's a horrible snow pattern. We're getting lucky with surface temps through the period but it's just window dressing. 0z gefs is another step towards a better snow pattern down the line though. Looks like the crappy Pac pattern may get the boot sooner rather than later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Another nice set over overnight ensemble runs. Gefs members are slowly piling on to a blocky look. The window of change looks to be the 16th-20th for us. I'm going to go out on a limb and say we will be tracking several legit threats before the year is over. Possibly one near Xmas.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Another nice set over overnight ensemble runs. Gefs members are slowly piling on to a blocky look. The window of change looks to be the 16th-20th for us. I'm going to go out on a limb and say we will be tracking several legit threats before the year is over. Possibly one near Xmas.... Tho is looks like the euro weeklies pushed back the pattern by a few days. Now it doesn't get good until xmas and then lasts through the rest of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Tho is looks like the euro weeklies pushed back the pattern by a few days. Now it doesn't get good until xmas and then lasts through the rest of the run. True. But one thing I picked up on with the weeklies is they are identical to the 0z ens runs and then go from there at d16-32. If the ec ens speed up or slow down a change the weeklies will follow. Comparing last night's d15 to the weeklies d17 shows that things are trending faster. Its certainly a half full weenie approach but there are some noticeable differences in our favor to getting there a bit quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 This is an excellent pattern so far. Strong high pressures to the north but it's just that -10 departures will not do it right now, later on different story. Agree. It's encouraging to see a train of strong HP consistently to our north (despite the pesky lakes low for the beginning of next week) and a stream of STJ energy and moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Last sevral runs of the GFS show a much better pattern around the 20th. Decent EPO ridge and -AO starting to form by the 20th. Keep your fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Last sevral runs of the GFS show a much better pattern around the 20th. Decent EPO ridge and -AO starting to form by the 20th. Keep your fingers crossed. the ensembles aren't showing it...a slightly better Atlantic, but nothing like the OP is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 Some clarity showing on the 12z euro ens run. Looks like either a strong sw or possible closed low traverses almost due east. Once the trough gets here (d12?) It stays. SE has below normal heights and temps d12-15. Pna/epo look to start the transition to favorable as the storm makes its trip. I agree with matt about the Atlantic. Not good but the ao looks to go negative. Hopefully the big area of high heights in Canada move towards the Davis straight down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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