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December Med/Long Range Disco

WinterWxLuvr

By WinterWxLuvr,
in Mid Atlantic

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

Ironic that we could bootleg ourselves into a pretty seasonable 1st 2 weeks of Torchember. 

Not sure who said we were going to torch here all mo. Seems we've mostly been modeled to be on the edge of the really warm stuff which keeps the door open to some cooler times at the least. Not to mention we seem to be running into a cold day or two in a slightly above normal pattern. 

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PrinceFrederickWx

PrinceFrederickWx

Posted
Posted

JB used to talk about the pattern that sets in around the solstice being the one that persists.  This was indeed the case in 02/03, so perhaps this season can follow a similar path.  So far, we are no where near as warm as we were in mid December 2002, but this period is threatening to be a week or more longer than the interlude in that season based on the modeling trends for the time being.

 

I don't buy it... we had a historic, record breaking heat wave around the solstice last year, how did that correlate to record cold in JFM?

 

(that being said, I do think we're gonna have below avg. snow this year)

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted

Well, I can get through Day 10 for free, but I think this look is after Day 10 based on the discussion by our friends to the north.  Although I can kind of guess how it might evolve based on the Day 10 look.  Day 10 has a ridge splitting the GOA/Aleutian low and some ridging showing up in the western CONUS and Canada.  Taken forward, I could *guess* that this would leave the Aleutian low better positioned and would turn the EPO towards negative. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

12z euro ens shows the large area of AN heights is further N over hudson bay (and closer to davis strait) and not centered over se canada at the end of the run. Also the bends in the isobars across the conus d10-15 are more like short wavelength ridge/troughs vs flat as a pancake or even "uphill" like they've been. It's subtle change. GOA trough still too far east for help from the Pac. I suppose the look would imply a shorter duration of large + departures here. 

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usedtobe

usedtobe

Posted
Posted

Well, I can get through Day 10 for free, but I think this look is after Day 10 based on the discussion by our friends to the north.  Although I can kind of guess how it might evolve based on the Day 10 look.  Day 10 has a ridge splitting the GOA/Aleutian low and some ridging showing up in the western CONUS and Canada.  Taken forward, I could *guess* that this would leave the Aleutian low better positioned and would turn the EPO towards negative. 

 

12z euro ens shows the large area of AN heights is further N over hudson bay (and closer to davis strait) and not centered over se canada at the end of the run. Also the bends in the isobars across the conus d10-15 are more like short wavelength ridge/troughs vs flat as a pancake or even "uphill" like they've been. It's subtle change. GOA trough still too far east for help from the Pac. I suppose the look would imply a shorter duration of large + departures here. 

At 360 hours the euro ens mean still has low heights over Ak and higher heights to the south so it is still a positive EPO.   The next week looks pretty seasonal but the following week looks like it will be a tad warmer than normal, probably not a troch but we could have one pretty warm day if a low passes to our north.  If we have a chance of getting snow, it will have to be this coming MOnday or Tuesday and even that is a stretch requiring the low to form nearer the coast and then stall while waiting for the next impulse to drop in. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

At 360 hours the euro ens mean still has low heights over Ak and higher heights to the south so it is still a positive EPO.   The next week looks pretty seasonal but the following week looks like it will be a tad warmer than normal, probably not a troch but we could have one pretty warm day if a low passes to our north.  If we have a chance of getting snow, it will have to be this coming MOnday or Tuesday and even that is a stretch requiring the low to form nearer the coast and then stall while waiting for the next impulse to drop in. 

 

I'm not even thinking about snow right now to be honest. I'm looking for the fastest way out of the hostile snow pattern we are facing over the next 2 weeks or longer. The thing I looking for the most is signs of stable blocking back over the pole. Seems absent for now. Hope that changes before we get to Jan. 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

I'm not even thinking about snow right now to be honest. I'm looking for the fastest way out of the hostile snow pattern we are facing over the next 2 weeks or longer. The thing I looking for the most is signs of stable blocking back over the pole. Seems absent for now. Hope that changes before we get to Jan. 

http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/el-nino-update-it-is-here-now-and-is-impacting-circulation-but-dont-cancel-off-winter-just-yet/

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Interesting read.  I'm in the camp of not cancelling winter though I suspect week 2 will have some posters here feeling semi-gum, Ji at the very least.

 

I'm sure some people think I'm cancelling winter but absolutely not. Just keeping close tabs on Dec. We've been down the path before with high expectations only to suck an egg in Dec and continue well into the new year. The only way I'd start that type of panic is if we get a big +AO like Dec 06. Seems unlikely. 

 

We've also wasted 6 weeks of winter a big -AO combined with pac dominated flow like 2012 and that also seem very unlikely. But the next couple weeks aren't very attractive to snow lovers. No way to spin that.  

 

 

Thanks Ginxy

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usedtobe

usedtobe

Posted
Posted

I'm sure some people think I'm cancelling winter but absolutely not. Just keeping close tabs on Dec. We've been down the path before with high expectations only to suck an egg in Dec and continue well into the new year. The only way I'd start that type of panic is if we get a big +AO like Dec 06. Seems unlikely. 

 

We've also wasted 6 weeks of winter a big -AO combined with pac dominated flow like 2012 and that also seem very unlikely. But the next couple weeks aren't very attractive to snow lovers. No way to spin that.  

 

 

Thanks Ginxy

I just noticed that my last two posts had typos all over them,  I had a glass of wine and my typing is awful.

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted

I wish he would have posted the runs from this afternoon instead of two days ago.

Ha...good catch.  Although the metaphor fits for most GFS/Euro model wars. 

 

Weeklies are tasty. Ridging builds up through western canada during week 3. -EPO shortly after Christmas. Coldest 850s anoms in the hemisphere are centered in the east half of the conus as we close the year. 

Giddyup. 

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

I'm sure some people think I'm cancelling winter but absolutely not. Just keeping close tabs on Dec. We've been down the path before with high expectations only to suck an egg in Dec and continue well into the new year. The only way I'd start that type of panic is if we get a big +AO like Dec 06. Seems unlikely. 

 

We've also wasted 6 weeks of winter a big -AO combined with pac dominated flow like 2012 and that also seem very unlikely. But the next couple weeks aren't very attractive to snow lovers. No way to spin that.  

 

 

Thanks Ginxy

 

Its fairly rare to be mild with a -AO....a -NAO is another story...you can have a raging GOA low and so all you're really doing is recycling Pacific air into the East via the -NAO...the 1996-97 winter was a good example of how a -NAO can do nothing...a very -AO though rarely allows the Pacific to dominate.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Its fairly rare to be mild with a -AO....a -NAO is another story...you can have a raging GOA low and so all you're really doing is recycling Pacific air into the East via the -NAO...the 1996-97 winter was a good example of how a -NAO can do nothing...a very -AO though rarely allows the Pacific to dominate.

 

It's rare but there is more than one example (dec 01 was as ugly as dec 12). Just things for weenies like me to keep tucked in the back of the mind when typically favorable indices are being overwhelmed by something else. Not really the case right now either way because we don't have a stable -AO. 

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HighStakes

HighStakes

Posted
Posted

For us most el nino years don't get going until January anyway, sometimes not until late January and we still can have a good winter. 

I've been saying this all along. In fact, quite a few winters including nino years such as 82/83, 86/87, and 09/10 we find that the majority of our winter came during an epic week or 2 week period.

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

I've got my fingers crossed for an 86/87 style redux

it had an AN DEC by around 1.7 degrees at BWI

arguably, this DEC could be warmer, but I'm not so sure about that yet, though the 12/1 anomalies are prolific and may have to be "weenie tossed" in order to....ahem....make the numbers work if ya' know what I mean!

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gymengineer

gymengineer

Posted
Posted

I've been saying this all along. In fact, quite a few winters including nino years such as 82/83, 86/87, and 09/10 we find that the majority of our winter came during an epic week or 2 week period.

There have been plenty of El Nino winters in the DC area that were memorable based on two or three storms (including two out of the three winters your listed) whereas the rest of the winter saw few accumulating snow opportunities. And we've had many El Nino winters that had similar number of total events to those winters (like 06/07, 94/95), but none of the storms exceeded 10+" resulting in near-median seasonal snow totals. 

 

For a generic Nino winter, I would be fine with three or four snow events making up most of the seasonal total. It's the amazing ones like 02/03 and 09/10 where we end up with the active STJ and blocking in tandem to yield two or three more moderate events to push us into "amazing" territory. For example,1/29/10 was always going to be a cold day given the overall pattern, but we didn't have to max out on the far northern extent of a southern storm like we did.

 

The -AO dominance forecasted for this winter makes me hope for an 02/03-style winter, but I think I'd be fine for a winter where we just get our two or three decent storms to push us above median. 

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