SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 December sucks in immediate dc metro.....not sure why people care that much....It sucked in 65,77, 79, 86, 04, 06, which were all passable or good nino winters...**** - last year DCA only got 1.5" in DEC...plus Dec isn't over yet...getting a storm toward the end of the month wouldn't surprise me..I don't take December very seriously in any winter..my 10 year average is 3.5" and that includes 12/18-19/2009.....If we are going to get blocking in the means, I'd hate to waste a portion of it on early December...December 2010's mega block yielded me 2"....If we get a bad pattern January 15-Feb 20th, then I'll be pissed...now..who gives a crap...my average high is 50..I'm just going to enjoy the crisp weather... This. 40s is what December is supposed to be down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 New Hampshire road trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I didn't look at last night's but it seems to have dropped the two lows. Now it's just one that goes SE then turns around and goes north with the second 500 wave. Pretty sure it won't happen as shown lol. Weekend looks like a cold rain tho. It's like a car running out of gas and stalling and then getting a full tank of nitro and doing donuts over SNE. It's cool to look at in the digital world at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Well 12z Euro is back to giving you guys a little something and back to a big one for the NE. It was also the 12Z run yesterday that introduced that idea I believe, interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 It's like a car running out of gas and stalling and then getting a full tank of nitro and doing donuts over SNE. It's cool to look at in the digital world at least. Well, to be fair it's probably right for New England. I want my 0.5" though.. gotta crawl to Dec avg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Not sure this is the right place to past, but I have been searching and searching and can not seem to find month by month Snow averages for the Fredericksburg, VA area..... Does anyone happen to have any of those numbers, or if you could kindly point me in the right direction, that would be great. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Not sure this is the right place to past, but I have been searching and searching and can not seem to find month by month Snow averages for the Fredericksburg, VA area..... Does anyone happen to have any of those numbers, or if you could kindly point me in the right direction, that would be great. Thanks! I get my data from here: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I've been following weather in DC for too long to melt down over December...It isn't worth it.....It's all bonus snow...even 1/1 - 1/15 usually blows..it's disconcerting, but for those of us near the cities, we have like a 5-6 week window where we get 60-70% of our average snow...December is kind of like a fall month.....At least it isn't 2006/2011 when we could comfortably cancel December on 12/1....I think 12/20-12/31 is still up in the air...I agree about December rarely being a snowy month and that expectations should always be low until late but otoh, I don't like the progression on the ensembles. It's something that could have longer legs than anyone expected. I know plenty of folks thought Dec would be a wildcard and highest chance at being mild in the east but I don't remember much talk about a raging pac jet and basically zero meaningful blocking of any kind. There are times when Dec sets the tone for the overall behavior of winter patterns. And I don't like seeing a 2+ week pattern like we appear to be moving in. I know it can flip, go cold, and hold on for a while. Waiting for things like that brings back too many bad memories for me. Call me paranoid or whatever but there are reasons to be at least a little concerned right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 i hate punting december...we get 3 months of winter all year. Why should we have to punt one of them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Anyone that went cold and snowy (everyone) will grasp onto it for dear life until it's apparent otherwise. But yeah the Dec freakouts are a bit much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I agree about December rarely being a snowy month and that expectations should always be low until late but otoh, I don't like the progression on the ensembles. It's something that could have longer legs than anyone expected. I know plenty of folks thought Dec would be a wildcard and highest chance at being mild in the east but I don't remember much talk about a raging pac jet and basically zero meaningful blocking of any kind. There are times when Dec sets the tone for the overall behavior of winter patterns. And I don't like seeing a 2+ week pattern like we appear to be moving in. I know it can flip, go cold, and hold on for a while. Waiting for things like that brings back too many bad memories for me. Call me paranoid or whatever but there are reasons to be at least a little concerned right now. Wasn't it Jebman that feared a pacific jet into the winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 i hate punting december...we get 3 months of winter all year. Why should we have to punt one of them? March is the new winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 i hate punting december...we get 3 months of winter all year. Why should we have to punt one of them? If I had the option of marginal snow in December with average snow in JFM, or a terrible December with huge snowfalls in JFM, I would take the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Anyone that went cold and snowy (everyone) will grasp onto it for dear life until it's apparent otherwise. But yeah the Dec freakouts are a bit much. I support a cold and snowy season and am not looking back, does that count? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 There are times when Dec sets the tone for the overall behavior of winter patterns. JB used to talk about the pattern that sets in around the solstice being the one that persists. This was indeed the case in 02/03, so perhaps this season can follow a similar path. So far, we are no where near as warm as we were in mid December 2002, but this period is threatening to be a week or more longer than the interlude in that season based on the modeling trends for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Euro likes the idea of cold hp parking in the east mid next week and hanging on. This would be good for the local ski areas to make a bunch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I'm surprised Ji hasn't posted the JMA yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I'm surprised Ji hasn't posted the JMA yet... Yeah cold rainstorm on the JMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 The euro actually has us below normal for the vast majority of the run. While it's certainly nothing close to a snow pattern at 500, it's heartening to see that we can still manage cooler than normal temperatures despite the crappy upper level look. This assumes, of course, that the Euro is correct about a dreary east coast. That look is the kind of look that COULD bring a fluky event, IMO. One with a relatively short lead time. Long term we need our normal AO, NAO, PAC variables to align for a long lead event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Yeah cold rainstorm on the JMA. yea, it is in Philly. But not my yard so I'm good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 yea, it is in Philly. But not my yard so I'm good. Yeah, well I am not in philly, so I'm good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 yea, it is in Philly. But not my yard so I'm good. Not that it matters, but does the JMA show a NW of I-95 event? I didn't really see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Euro likes the idea of cold hp parking in the east mid next week and hanging on. This would be good for the local ski areas to make a bunch of snow. The euro actually has us below normal for the vast majority of the run. While it's certainly nothing close to a snow pattern at 500, it's heartening to see that we can still manage cooler than normal temperatures despite the crappy look. This assumes, of course, that the Euro is correct about a dreary east coast. That look is the kind of look that COULD bring a fluky event, IMO. Ironic that we could bootleg ourselves into a pretty seasonable 1st 2 weeks of Torchember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Not that it matters, but does the JMA show a NW of I-95 event? I didn't really see it. I just kidding around because the JMA is the last model I would look at for marginal/complicated events but it's fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I just kidding around because the JMA is the last model I would look at for marginal/complicated events but it's fun to look at. Oh lol. That's the hour I saw. Does it only go out to 120? I'm not very familiar with how it works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Oh lol. That's the hour I saw. Does it only go out to 120? I'm not very familiar with how it works. It goes to 192 on wxbell but the available parameters suck. 144 on earl barker's site. Looks like we get some wraparound flurries after 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I just kidding around because the JMA is the last model I would look at for marginal/complicated events but it's fun to look at. I remember the JMA leading the way with a big storm once in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Canadian 10 day temp ensembles are finally starting to look ugly http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/tenday_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I agree about December rarely being a snowy month and that expectations should always be low until late but otoh, I don't like the progression on the ensembles. It's something that could have longer legs than anyone expected. I know plenty of folks thought Dec would be a wildcard and highest chance at being mild in the east but I don't remember much talk about a raging pac jet and basically zero meaningful blocking of any kind. There are times when Dec sets the tone for the overall behavior of winter patterns. And I don't like seeing a 2+ week pattern like we appear to be moving in. I know it can flip, go cold, and hold on for a while. Waiting for things like that brings back too many bad memories for me. Call me paranoid or whatever but there are reasons to be at least a little concerned right now. I actually like the modeled progression of the wave train, not only because it fits the QBO/ENSO analog progression, but also because it's a classic SSW precursor pattern in a Nino/Nada..see 12/2012, 1/2010, 11/2009, 1/2007, 12/2003, etc. That's a pretty high success rate, all else considered. In a -QBO, the success rate is very high. I'm confident that we flip to a -AO/-NAO in January.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Thanks Bob. Maybe we could get something like 11/26 again out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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