Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 On 12/17/2014 at 7:47 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: My mistake. The event I was looking at is day 11-12 on the gfs. I think that's the same one I was referring to, though you can see it develop around day 10. Bit confusing, sorry about that. Looking a bit more, there does appear to be some precip still occurring in the cold air (once it gets cold enough); even the 2-m temperatures get around to below freezing. But with the plots 12 hours apart, kinda hard to tell how much might be falling in the colder air. I know that's parsing details this far out, but you get the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 On 12/17/2014 at 2:19 PM, Redmorninglight said: I hope the Christmas storm re-shuffles the deck. This weather is boring and I have always been a big believer in getting the arctic cold in place first and see what happens with storms later. In this case, we somehow have neither. The cold has reshuffled over Asia with the cross-polar ridge in late November. Like 2011, early season cold killed us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 On 12/17/2014 at 8:30 PM, Weatherguy701 said: In this case, we somehow have neither. The cold has reshuffled over Asia with the cross-polar ridge in late November. Like 2011, early season cold killed us. Glad you know how the rest of the winter will turn out! What will we do without your wisdom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 On 12/17/2014 at 8:30 PM, Weatherguy701 said: In this case, we somehow have neither. The cold has reshuffled over Asia with the cross-polar ridge in late November. Like 2011, early season cold killed us. Don't worry, plenty of cold will be here after the pattern shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 On 12/17/2014 at 8:30 PM, Weatherguy701 said: In this case, we somehow have neither. The cold has reshuffled over Asia with the cross-polar ridge in late November. Like 2011, early season cold killed us. Didn't kill us last winter, because reality doesn't work like that. It's going to get cold..enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 On 12/17/2014 at 8:39 PM, StudentOfClimatology said: Didn't kill us last winter, because reality doesn't work like that. It's going to get cold..enjoy it. If I remember, November 2013 was cold in the fourth week. It may be important in the grand scheme. I don't know. It will become cold. The only question is 2013'esque or just average cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 On 12/17/2014 at 8:39 PM, StudentOfClimatology said: Didn't kill us last winter, because reality doesn't work like that. It's going to get cold..enjoy it. I'm not sure what he's talking about. The late-month cold is pretty much a guarantee. It's not getting pushed back on the runs, and actually it's looking much below average for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 On 12/17/2014 at 8:43 PM, Weatherguy701 said: If I remember, November 2013 was cold in the fourth week. It may be important in the grand scheme. I don't know. I know. Cold in November is completely irrelevant to anything. And comparing the Nov-Dec pattern progression to 2011 is terrible analysis. You post this stuff a lot. And I always interpret it as you viewing air temps as some sort of bubble that moves around the globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Euro ENS dump the cold east a day or two later than the GFS. Looks like it has staying power through the end of the run as well. Really strong signal as the indicators are looking solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 On 12/17/2014 at 8:47 PM, Bob Chill said: I know. Cold in November is completely irrelevant to anything. And comparing the Nov-Dec pattern progression to 2011 is terrible analysis. You post this stuff a lot. And I always interpret it as you viewing air temps as some sort of bubble that moves around the globe.Just ignore. If only we had a block button on these forums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 On 12/17/2014 at 8:47 PM, Bob Chill said: I know. Cold in November is completely irrelevant to anything. And comparing the Nov-Dec pattern progression to 2011 is terrible analysis. You post this stuff a lot. And I always interpret it as you viewing air temps as some sort of bubble that moves around the globe. Pretty much. We cool at night but its not the engine that snow-cover is. You even posted a map showing the paltry NA snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 On 12/17/2014 at 8:50 PM, nflwxman said: Euro ENS dump the cold east a day or two later than the GFS. Looks like it has staying power through the end of the run as well. Really strong signal as the indicators are looking solid. Pretty classic -epo cold dump. There are a lot of 1040-1050+ hps dropping out of western canada on the ind members. Reminds me of last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 On 12/17/2014 at 8:55 PM, Bob Chill said: Pretty classic -epo cold dump. There are a lot of 1040-1050+ hps dropping out of western canada on the ind members. Reminds me of last year. Yep, I don't expect the SJS to be modeled very strong under those types of HPs. Being these are the ENS at long lead, that doesn't bother me quite yet in terms of being overly dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 On 12/17/2014 at 8:55 PM, Bob Chill said: Pretty classic -epo cold dump. There are a lot of 1040-1050+ hps dropping out of western canada on the ind members. Reminds me of last year. As you said earlier, it would be nice to get some solid ice out of this cold blast. I always like seeing full ice coverage on the inlet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 On 12/17/2014 at 8:54 PM, Weatherguy701 said: Pretty much. We cool at night but its not the engine that snow-cover is. You even posted a map showing the paltry NA snowcover. Well thankfully Canada is completely snow covered and polar air will be travelling across it before pouring over the eastern 2/3rds of the US before long. I just don't understand some of your posts. It's not like asia bottles up all the cold air and keeps it from us. We don't need anything except cold continental air that originates in-situ in our hemisphere to be plenty below normal. This is driven by basic weather patterns. Yes, record breaking cold is going to need to be cross polar but that's a different discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 On 12/17/2014 at 9:03 PM, Bob Chill said: Well thankfully Canada is completely snow covered and polar air will be travelling across it before pouring over the eastern 2/3rds of the US before long. I just don't understand some of your posts. It's not like asia bottles up all the cold air and keeps it from us. We don't need anything except cold continental air that originates in-situ in our hemisphere to be plenty below normal. This is driven by basic weather patterns. Yes, record breaking cold is going to need to be cross polar but that's a different discussion. Because most of them dont make sense, or are incessant whining about how the next cold/snow screw-job will play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 On 12/17/2014 at 9:12 PM, C.A.P.E. said: Because most of them dont make sense, or are incessant whining about how the next cold/snow screw-job will play out. I don't think it's whining, he actively roots for snow busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 On 12/17/2014 at 9:17 PM, PraetorianGuard said: I don't think it's whining, he actively roots for snow busts. He wasn't always like this. I saw in the 12/19/09 thread he was pretty happy with massive amounts of snow. Now, all he does is wishcast for warm and snowless days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 November PDO - +1.72....4th highest November PDO on record dating back to 1900 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 On 12/17/2014 at 9:17 PM, PraetorianGuard said: I don't think it's whining, he actively roots for snow busts. Betting against my own forecast, based on logical reasoning....would be unethical. The +PDO was indeed instrumental in delivering the November cold spike and the subsequent California deluge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 GFS a has a 970mb bomb just N of Philly now..I'll take that in a heartbeat..looks fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 On 12/17/2014 at 10:25 PM, StudentOfClimatology said: GFS a has a 970mb bomb just N of Philly now..I'll take that in a heartbeat..looks fun. 983mb right over us, 961 by upstate NY. Agree that this will be fun to track even if it isn't a big snowstorm for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 I like the trend I see....maybe a little bit more south and east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 If there's one thing we do right, it's wind. Always delivers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Man, again the gfs has one heck of a block over the davis strait and it's there @ d9. This is very different than the euro. IF anything like that were to verify, would wouldn't have a rainy cutter after Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 On 12/17/2014 at 10:50 PM, Bob Chill said: Man, again the gfs has one heck of a block over the davis strait and it's there @ d9. This is very different than the euro. IF anything like that were to verify, would wouldn't have a rainy cutter after Xmas. The 27th looks interesting on the GFS. It keeps coming closer and closer. 06z had on Jan. 1, 12z had on the 29th, and now it's on the 27th. Unless it's a different storm lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 On 12/17/2014 at 10:55 PM, Warrior Bigfoot said: The 27th looks interesting on the GFS. It keeps coming closer and closer. 06z had on Jan. 1, 12z had on the 29th, and now it's on the 27th. Unless it's a different storm lol. All guidance seems to have a storm of some sort a couple days after Xmas. Euro and pgfs are cutters because big ridging pops behind the departing bomb. That ridge is far from a lock. I'm not buying into anything models are spitting out beyond Xmas. We need to know how the bomb evolves and what it does downstream before we'll have a clear idea what to expect next. It's been a typical winter month of "it's 10-15 days away". Thats a staple in these parts. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 Still a chance for the Christmas bomb to do some favors for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 On 12/17/2014 at 11:09 PM, Bob Chill said: All guidance seems to have a storm of some sort a couple days after Xmas. Euro and pgfs are cutters because big ridging pops behind the departing bomb. That ridge is far from a lock. I'm not buying into anything models are spitting out beyond Xmas. We need to know how the bomb evolves and what it does downstream before we'll have a clear idea what to expect next. It's been a typical winter month of "it's 10-15 days away". Thats a staple in these parts. Lol Smart. The bomb evolution will yield some wild solutions late in the game. This could be fun. Or heartbreaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 On 12/17/2014 at 11:15 PM, PraetorianGuard said: Still a chance for the Christmas bomb to do some favors for us.Yeah culling trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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