Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Euro ens sure looks sweet in the d10-15 range. We had a big epo ridge last year but no blocking. Looks like we might have both. If that kind of pattern verifies, I can only imagine that the majority of precip chances would be frozen and imo it's a pretty nice long lead look at a big storm pattern for the east in general. Not MA specific. Up and down the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Weeklies have a solid -nao signal during the first week of Jan. Aleutian low builds during that week as well and holds through the end of the run. Nice ridging in western canada weeks 3-4. Overall looks like a wintry pattern for the first half of Jan. Not a frigid pattern but definitely a nice look for winter weather in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 ^ I wanna secs you up. Could be good for the poetry thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 On 12/15/2014 at 11:31 PM, Ian said: ^ I wanna secs you up. Could be good for the poetry thread. Thank you R. Kelly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 On 12/15/2014 at 11:41 PM, ravensrule said: Thank you R. Kelly. You mean Color Me Badd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 On 12/15/2014 at 11:43 PM, Fozz said: You mean Color Me Badd? You are right, for some reason my old brain thought it was R. Kelly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 3:13 AM, WxWatcher007 said: In case no one has seen this yet. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45140-ending-out-december-with-a-potential-pattern-change/ Great post by Coastal. Coastal and Wes (and others) do a great job explaining the playing field, incorporating maps which are always helpful to the reader. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/15/2014 at 5:57 PM, WxUSAF said: Whoa. Yes please. Pattern is ripe post-Xmas. f252-2.gif Mongolian High Pressure. Get ready to shiver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 4:11 AM, Tenman Johnson said: Mongolian High Pressure. Get ready to shiver. Not as bad as Romanian high pressure, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Another 40mb and the coastal will take over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Severe weather outbreak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/15/2014 at 8:24 PM, Highzenberg said: I mentioned this earlier, the X-mas event looks like a big time cold front that ushers in the new winter pattern. You can tell the EURO 240 hours is about to tank the AO, pattern should be amazing come the 27th on.....I'm extremely pumped up right now.You really do seem to enjoy chasing "patterns" more than snowstorms. Whatever floats your boat, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Superensemble pattern looks really good with a familiar storm prominently analoged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Probably wouldn't have to worry about a west track or cutter with this type of look One thing I noticed about the 6z/12z gefs is they aren't blasting fronts off the coast leaving us under a cold dome of hp with the trough digging and staying way south. Lots of activity with the ns and ss and boundaries lurking. We'll have no idea what our chances are for 7-10 days but we'll at least be in a setup that could offer some decent chances and not freak events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Smells like an overrunning type year to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 days and days of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 The gfs is funky with the xmas day storm. Has some kind of phase east of us and then destroys NE. I ccan almost guarantee that it will happen that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 3:32 PM, Bob Chill said: Probably wouldn't have to worry about a west track or cutter with this type of look 6zgefs.JPG One thing I noticed about the 6z/12z gefs is they aren't blasting fronts off the coast leaving us under a cold dome of hp with the trough digging and staying way south. Lots of activity with the ns and ss and boundaries lurking. We'll have no idea what our chances are for 7-10 days but we'll at least be in a setup that could offer some decent chances and not freak events. ECWMF doesn't agree with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 5:49 PM, dan123 said: ECWMF doesn't agree with this Euro full phase over philly on Christmas. This could be a very interesting storm if euro is on to something. Probably just 40mph winds and snow squalls for us. I can't see the precip maps. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 posted in wrong thread.. big shift. globals like a bomb in that frame though. pattern changer. On 12/16/2014 at 6:49 PM, Ian said: Euro looks fun for the second storm. Bombs and goes just NW 984-980mb. Mild rain to snowflakes on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 7:05 PM, Ian said: posted in wrong thread.. big shift. globals like a bomb in that frame though. pattern changer. if the maps on Tripical tidbits are correct, the storm heads E/SE from almost on top of us Days 9-10 wtf? never saw that before EDIT: I guess just north of due east on second look. Still, very odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 7:09 PM, mitchnick said: if the maps on Tripical tidbits are correct, the storm heads E/SE from almost on top of us Days 9-10 wtf? never saw that before EDIT: I guess just north of due east on second look. Still, very odd H5 closes off over head and there are multiple lows around us. Everything converges. Too complicated to describe with words and not really worth going into detail. There's going to be some sort of storm in that timeframe but it all looks like rain for us attm. Verbatim, the wv mountains get hammered on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 7:16 PM, Bob Chill said: H5 closes off over head and there are multiple lows around us. Everything converges. Too complicated to describe with words and not really worth going into detail. There's going to be some sort of storm in that timeframe but it all looks like rain for us attm. Verbatim, the wv mountains get hammered on this run. storm was in wisconsin last night too. plus the chicagocane on the para. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 7:18 PM, Ian said: storm was in wisconsin last night too. plus the chicagocane on the para. The low coming across the southern tier of canada is on all guidance i think. Pretty much a dagger for us. Very amplified trough in the middle of the country so you can only imagine some sort of development of something potent underneath it. Severe? haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 7:16 PM, Bob Chill said: H5 closes off over head and there are multiple lows around us. Everything converges. Too complicated to describe with words and not really worth going into detail. There's going to be some sort of storm in that timeframe but it all looks like rain for us attm. Verbatim, the wv mountains get hammered on this run. Accuwx finally came out with their Euro numbers....even after the low passes us and we're under the cold 850's, surface temps are in the mid and upper 30's I'm starting to get a little worried that we're back in 3/13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 euro ens has members everywhere for the christmas eve event .. from north of MN to offshore.. but mean is over michigan into canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 8:26 PM, Ian said: euro ens has members everywhere for the christmas eve event .. from north of MN to offshore.. but mean is over michigan into canada. It's a pretty crappy snow setup no matter which way you shake it. The trough is sharp and narrow on all guidance and a sub 1000mb low over the lakes makes it even worse. I'm sure there will be multiple lows moving on the boundary but even if a low moves up from underneath us, our temps would be toast until after the gl low an associated cold front has moved through. I suppose if the front stalls nearby to our east after things progress it would open the door but right now I'm setting expectations pretty low until after xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 8:32 PM, Bob Chill said: It's a pretty crappy snow setup no matter which way you shake it. The trough is sharp and narrow on all guidance and a sub 1000mb low over the lakes makes it even worse. I'm sure there will be multiple lows moving on the boundary but even if a low moves up from underneath us, our temps would be toast until after the gl low an associated cold front has moved through. I suppose if the front stalls nearby to our east after things progress it would open the door but right now I'm setting expectations pretty low until after xmas. Yeah. I think our best (only?) shot at a white Christmas is to get some snow squalls out of a s/w that rotates around this monster 500mb low late Xmas eve/Xmas morning. It's a long shot, but probably our only shot. I have seen it modeled once or twice in the last couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 9:16 PM, WxUSAF said: Yeah. I think our best (only?) shot at a white Christmas is to get some snow squalls out of a s/w that rotates around this monster 500mb low late Xmas eve/Xmas morning. It's a long shot, but probably our only shot. I have seen it modeled once or twice in the last couple days. GEFS ensembles say..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 On 12/16/2014 at 10:09 PM, mitchnick said: GEFS ensembles say..... Pattern changer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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