burgertime Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Really good run for you guys. DC is very close to getting crushed @162. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Even the surface temps look good N+W of I-95. Pretty much a lock at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 I checked 925 and 700 temps. It's all snow from just east of 95 and westward. Solid hit on this run. Not much room in the cities/close burbs with the low tucked in like that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 at day 7, 850 and 700mb RH is 95-100% over BWI with 850's -5 or -6 I would guess verbatim it would definitely trend over to snow even if it mixes/changes for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 1" qpf up the 95 corridor. 1.5" west towards winchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 SLOW DOWN AND LOOK AT THE 850 TTEMPS OVER i-95 On 12/14/2014 at 6:35 PM, EasternUSWX said: 990 of NJ coast. Absolutely hammered. HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 50 miles east with the low and the cities would get destroyed. We won't discuss 50 miles west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 0 LINE JUST INLAND FROM s NJ to NYC to BOS ... Low is VERY close to the coast this means that once the GFS gets within 84 hrs and it shifts east.. as the gfs always does we can anticipate the usual... "its come east " banter ... and the oldie but goodie " the euro hadnt been right all season" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 On 12/14/2014 at 6:41 PM, Bob Chill said: 50 miles east with the low and the cities would get destroyed. We won't discuss 50 miles west. let's settle it for 25 miles and take our chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Trend for a while has been colder as the event nears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 50/ 50 Lows CANNOT .. cannot get the BIG ones without em Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 On 12/14/2014 at 6:41 PM, DTWXRISK said: SLOW DOWN AND LOOK AT THE 850 TTEMPS OVER i-95 Looks like we walk the line here. Further northeast is precarious. With virtually no wiggle room in the dc-balt 95 corridor I know how sketchy it would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 On 12/14/2014 at 6:45 PM, Bob Chill said: Looks like we walk the line here. Further northeast is precarious. With virtually no wiggle room in the dc-balt 95 corridor I know how sketchy it would be. they are the funnest of them all.....provided we stay all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Oh, now yall wake up for the 21st storm. I (and mapgirl!) had faith all along. I'd like my imaginary credit for my imaginary skills, thanks. In all seriousness, still think the best chances are obviously N and W, but with the way this has been going, cities are way in the game. Remember, just a few days ago, the models had no good cold air to be found. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 On 12/14/2014 at 6:45 PM, Bob Chill said: Looks like we walk the line here. Further northeast is precarious. With virtually no wiggle room in the dc-balt 95 corridor I know how sketchy it would be. Went from being above freezing at 850's to close to below. It's getting better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Surface, 925, 850, and 700 look fine for 95 and west. Probably a sneaky warm layer somewhere in there considering how close the lp center is. Definitely improvement in the mid levels this run though from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Is that a "banana high" that the Euro is depicting on day 7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Right around where euro usually peaks for us. Enjoy your day 7 snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 On 12/14/2014 at 6:45 PM, Bob Chill said: Looks like we walk the line here. Further northeast is precarious. With virtually no wiggle room in the dc-balt 95 corridor I know how sketchy it would be. Unfortunately for Wes, his 850s go above as the low passes to our east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 On 12/14/2014 at 6:49 PM, Ian said: Right around where euro usually peaks for us. Enjoy your day 7 snow. It's 6.5 days now so. lol These are the dicey panels. Probably a pretty ripe storm for hurt feelings either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 some pretty 850 pics from day 6 and 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 On 12/14/2014 at 6:52 PM, Bob Chill said: It's 6.5 days now so. lol These are the dicey panels. Probably a pretty ripe storm for hurt feelings either way. 18z 850.JPG 0z 850.JPG I'll take -1C at all levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 shenandoah valley gets wipPed out as does eastern WVA western md and Much of PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 On 12/14/2014 at 6:49 PM, Ian said: Right around where euro usually peaks for us. Enjoy your day 7 snow. I think our mid 2000s/early 2010s snow drought is over... this is gonna crush at least some of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 ITS PREMATURE to say its all snow at DCA sure... but its also premature to say its all rain or no significant snow On 12/14/2014 at 6:54 PM, Ian said: Same to you then. I'm not going to post here if being sane is considered terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 On 12/14/2014 at 6:57 PM, DTWXRISK said: ITS PREMATURE to say its all snow at DCA sure... but its also premature to say its all rain or no significant snowI haven't said much except that a 2009 comparo is pretty dumb. Just because what 2009 was and how far off we are if nothing else.I usually wait till day 5ish to share much.. Everyone has it all figured out by then anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 On 12/14/2014 at 6:52 PM, Bob Chill said: It's 6.5 days now so. lol These are the dicey panels. Probably a pretty ripe storm for hurt feelings either way. 18z 850.JPG 0z 850.JPG Bob, what I like on that 150hr map is that it even has Annapolis at freezing at 850 of course, as you said, plenty more to go wrong above and below verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 i agree about 2009 ... its NOTHING like dec 19-20 2009... but the dates are close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 On 12/14/2014 at 6:59 PM, mitchnick said: Bob, what I like on that 150hr map is that it even has Annapolis at freezing at 850 of course, as you said, plenty more to go wrong above and below verbatim IMO- the track of the lp alone is a simple flag for the metros. Yea, we can still score like that but IF the track went down like that I have a really hard time believing it would be all snow. We're going to get a ton looks for the next week anyways. Not worth overthinking this run. Hopefully the ensembles gain support for a similar or east track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Euro has our Christmas rain storm too I see :-/ http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121412/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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