WinterWxLuvr Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 The long range takes us into December now. Be the perfect place for Bob to come after this afternoons Euro. Let's hope we get to 60 pages this month....or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 although not DEC, GFS gives DCA/BWI some light snow Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Last nights euro ens run was pretty bad. Won't discuss it. 12z gefs looks variable but boring. I think we're probably going to have to wait a while unless something sneaky happens behind a fropa. Overall, first 10 days or so of Dec look average to maybe above temp wise on the means and unfavorable for organized snow. 0z euro ens had extended above average temps so I tossed it already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 26, 2014 Author Share Posted November 26, 2014 Last nights euro ens run was pretty bad. Won't discuss it. 12z gefs looks variable but boring. I think we're probably going to have to wait a while unless something sneaky happens behind a fropa. Overall, first 10 days or so of Dec look average to maybe above temp wise on the means and unfavorable for organized snow. 0z euro ens had extended above average temps so I tossed it already. Correct me if I'm wrong Bob, but didn't the look for November flip pretty quickly? I remember it looked pretty warm at one point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Correct me if I'm wrong Bob, but didn't the look for November flip pretty quickly? I remember it looked pretty warm at one point. It became clear the last couple days of Oct and the lead was in the d10+ range. However, heights over the pole and n of ak looked good before that. Just not for the conus. Both the gefs and euro don't look so good in the Pac or Canada or ak for a favorable snow pattern right now and they have been holding the boring pattern for next week for days now. I don't like that both ensembles warm canada up so much either. I agree that things can turn quick but right now there are no clear signs of anything with anomalous cold or favorable h5 for snow. Looks like some progressive troughs move through at least. Pattern favors a west track and then cold fronts. If anyone sees things more favorable than I do, please jump in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 It became clear the last couple days of Oct and the lead was in the d10+ range. However, heights over the pole and n of ak looked good before that. Just not for the conus. Both the gefs and euro don't look so good in the Pac or Canada or ak for a favorable snow pattern right now and they have been holding the boring pattern for next week for days now. I don't like that both ensembles warm canada up so much either. I agree that things can turn quick but right now there are no clear signs of anything with anomalous cold or favorable h5 for snow. Looks like some progressive troughs move through at least. Pattern favors a west track and then cold fronts. If anyone sees things more favorable than I do, please jump in. Everyone is counting on you to be the optimist ... Your thoughts are much appreciated regardless of the message. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Everyone is counting on you to be the optimist ... Your thoughts are much appreciated regardless of the message. Ha! I'm optimistic that we'll see a decent pattern sometime in Dec. Just speaking specifically of the next couple weeks. When it looks tasty again, you know I'm on it. lol Maybe we're just a snow town now and some flawed pattern will deliver again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Ha! I'm optimistic that we'll see a decent pattern sometime in Dec. Just speaking specifically of the next couple weeks. When it looks tasty again, you know I'm on it. lol Maybe we're just a snow town now and some flawed pattern will deliver again. I guess I'll get off the ledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Ha! I'm optimistic that we'll see a decent pattern sometime in Dec. Just speaking specifically of the next couple weeks. When it looks tasty again, you know I'm on it. lol Maybe we're just a snow town now and some flawed pattern will deliver again. I know ... it is always evident in your posts. (I mean that in a good way) I look forward to reading some "tasty" analysis. I am in know way bummed about an early Dec. average/warm week or two. It can only get warmer or colder, and each possibility has it's upside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 December 2002 had a pronounced mid-month warm up for 10-12 days, and was sandwiched by solid winter conditions either side. I much prefer this early winter pattern I think to the prospect of a December 1989 / 2005 where the pattern starts unsustainably cold and wears itself out in such a way we're pretty much forced to flip mild during what should be our peak winter climatology. Basically, let the pattern relax and reload now and be ready for prime time around Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Ha! I'm optimistic that we'll see a decent pattern sometime in Dec. Just speaking specifically of the next couple weeks. When it looks tasty again, you know I'm on it. lol Maybe we're just a snow town now and some flawed pattern will deliver again. This seems to be headed in the right direction in the long range: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 This seems to be headed in the right direction in the long range: image.jpg That explains and supports the idea of an Aleutian low reload. Phases 7,8,1 are cold for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 This kind of look has been on the means for about 4-5 days now. It's not terrible because it wouldn't take much to switch things around but it's quite different that where we've been lately and looks to have legs. I don't think it's a sign of a permanent switch for the month of Dec or anything. Just that we'll probably start getting a little restless until it does switch around. Euro ens 5 day mean for d11-15 for 500 heights and 850 temp anoms: GEFS is showing some tendency for troughing in the east during the same period but it's not a cold pattern and it's similar with warm pac air flooding canada The pattern starts before d10 and guidance has been steadfast in transitioning to a more pac air pattern early next week with limited cold outbreaks anywhere in the country. We'll probably see saw but putting up the kind of departures like we have recently seem pretty unlikely. Maybe a day after a front or something. Like winwxluvr said, the risk of changing on a dime is always there but I personally don't expect much to happen for the balance of the next 2 weeks. OTOH, this could all be part of a perfect relaxation before the hammer drops before Christmas with a HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Just need that Aleutian low to retrograde back westward (eastward? Russia-ward) and that would pop the -EPO and force the vortex southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Just need that Aleutian low to retrograde back westward (eastward? Russia-ward) and that would pop the -EPO and force the vortex southward. Yea, and also get the scand ridge (or any ridge) pushing back towards Greenland. The combo of not so great atl and not so great PAC doesn't look all that appealing. We need at least one to be very cooperative or both to be decent in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 This kind of look has been on the means for about 4-5 days now. It's not terrible because it wouldn't take much to switch things around but it's quite different that where we've been lately and looks to have legs. I don't think it's a sign of a permanent switch for the month of Dec or anything. Just that we'll probably start getting a little restless until it does switch around. Euro ens 5 day mean for d11-15 for 500 heights and 850 temp anoms: eps5day.GIF eps5day850.GIF GEFS is showing some tendency for troughing in the east during the same period but it's not a cold pattern and it's similar with warm pac air flooding canada gefs500.GIF gefs850.GIF The pattern starts before d10 and guidance has been steadfast in transitioning to a more pac air pattern early next week with limited cold outbreaks anywhere in the country. We'll probably see saw but putting up the kind of departures like we have recently seem pretty unlikely. Maybe a day after a front or something. Like winwxluvr said, the risk of changing on a dime is always there but I personally don't expect much to happen for the balance of the next 2 weeks. OTOH, this could all be part of a perfect relaxation before the hammer drops before Christmas with a HECS. Shoot, I'm not doing a 2 week outlook this week or I'd steal everything you just wrote except for the xmas bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Shoot, I'm not doing a 2 week outlook this week or I'd steal everything you just wrote except for the xmas bit. I'm glad you're not then. Coming from me it's just weenie talk. Coming from you would be very sad... I can easily deal with the next two weeks being ho hum. If it extends beyond it would push me to become more like Ji. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Just looking at the teleconnections and it looks solid for a developing +PNA. Some spread on where the AO goes but seems somewhat favorable towards negative. Quite a bit of spread on the NAO, so flip a coin...been so long since we have had any meaningful, sustained winter time blocking in the N Atlantic, I dont know if I would recognize it. So at least some signs of hope beyond the first week or so of Dec which is a lock for being uneventful. The CFS is a complete roasting for the month. Good thing... its likely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 New definition of ugly. Oh well. November snow was nice to see. Happy Thanksgiving. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 I bet the reload will be short and we will be cold again before long. That's been the pattern for quite a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 It became clear the last couple days of Oct and the lead was in the d10+ range. However, heights over the pole and n of ak looked good before that. Just not for the conus. Both the gefs and euro don't look so good in the Pac or Canada or ak for a favorable snow pattern right now and they have been holding the boring pattern for next week for days now. I don't like that both ensembles warm canada up so much either. I agree that things can turn quick but right now there are no clear signs of anything with anomalous cold or favorable h5 for snow. Looks like some progressive troughs move through at least. Pattern favors a west track and then cold fronts. If anyone sees things more favorable than I do, please jump in. i like the powder (or semi-powder) we're capable of getting in january/early feb. the problem with getting snow on the fringes like yesterday is you end up with marginal temps and snow that really doesn't stick well except for trees and grass. i'm willing to punt december (or at least the first half) for a colder pattern in january that allows for greater snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Finally a good pattern showing up on the 384hr GFS....semi-srs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Finally a good pattern showing up on the 384hr GFS....semi-srs I think we go 2-4 weeks of relatively uneventful winter weather before the large scale pattern becomes favorable, at which time the Eurasian snow cover/-AO/+PDO/+1-1.2 NINO all conspire for a decent pattern for the bulk of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Lots of ensemble members have a cutoff day 15. With the strong packet it will probably be able rain.I don't see an end to the pactorch pattern in sight but I have faith midwinter will be good. Also with the - AO the pattern shouldn't be that hard to break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 First half of Dec still looks pretty bad for organized snow chances. It could potentially be an example of a deceptive +pna/-ao numerical index. I'm less than enthused for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 First half of Dec still looks pretty bad for organized snow chances. It could potentially be an example of a deceptive +pna/-ao numerical index. I'm less than enthused for now. The only good thing is we enter the beginning of climo period for legit snow chances. The pattern looks blah overall, but not awful. Wouldn't be too surprised to see a sneaky chance pop up during the first 2 weeks of Dec, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 CFS mega torches Canada. Woo torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 EURO weeklies(week 4) shows an eastpac ridge and downstream buckling with BL temps over a large part of the CONUS. It was a very el nino look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 interestring statement from jb twitter acct:: Major typhoon to develop next week east of Philippines . Likely recurve would be sign of winter locking back in mid December on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 looking like a boring next week or so. pattern should change around the 10-12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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