Stormlover74 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Similar here, was initially suppose to be one of those typical snow to rain forecasts until 24 hours in but then 6-8"'forecast ended up becoming 16" MECS HECS event in like 12 hours of snowfall. Plus another storm hit 3 days later in the mid atlantic but I don't think affected NYC as much but some places got back to back hits (both on the NESIS list) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Eh they're overrated. Melts quickly and most people are ready for spring by that point Yeah, it would suck to have to deal with something like March 1888, March 1958, or March 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Also in February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Yeah, it would suck to have to deal with something like March 1888, March 1958, or March 1993. Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 1987 in Brooklyn...the video ends on Feb. 12th in the Poconos...Wild Acres... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_RBul-tH3gk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Not sure what happens after this but once to day 10 the shortening of the wave lengths do not look like what the ensembles were showing in its 10 -15 . Looks much more transient than a long torch to me . 12z OP keeps Thrs Fri @ KNYC in the teens . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Day 6 - 10 are - 8C Below Normal from NYC and points N . By day 13 on the Euro ensembles push another trough through the lakes . Day 14- 15 look like this again at 850 here . There does not seem to be an extended warm up . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Day 6 - 10 are - 8C Below Normal from NYC and points N . By day 13 on the Euro ensembles push another trough through the lakes . Day 14- 15 look like this again at 850 here . There does not seem to be an extended warm up . Do you trade energy? You are pretty focused on HDD/A/B normal, etc... don't you know the only thing people care about here is snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Do you trade energy? You are pretty focused on HDD/A/B normal, etc... don't you know the only thing people care about here is snow? Transparent huh ? Trade and Broker Equity Derivatives . Focus on UNG in my universe so I am always looking to beat the draw . Pattern comes 1st for me . Then long tracking events I guess . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Euro weeklies in. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Not sure what happens after this but once to day 10 the shortening of the wave lengths do not look like what the ensembles were showing in its 10 -15 . Looks much more transient than a long torch to me . 12z OP keeps Thrs Fri @ KNYC in the teens . The Interesting thing from last week is that the Euro ensembles D 10 trough and ridge pattern looks generally good. It always kept the warmest temps and strongest ridging to our west with the +EPO pattern. It's just that the hint of a trough over the Northeast at D10 became deeper over time. I guess that it's just too far out in time to correctly get the shortwave details correct .These +EPO patterns can be notorious for pieces of energy getting stuck underneath near the Northeast. Old D10 New D10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Euro weeklies in. Enjoy. week 3 and 4 much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 The Interesting thing from last week is that the Euro ensembles D 10 trough and ridge pattern looks generally good. It always kept the warmest temps and strongest ridging to our west with the +EPO pattern. It's just that the hint of a trough over the Northeast at D10 became deeper over time. I guess that it's just too far out in time to correctly get the shortwave details correct .These +EPO patterns can be notorious for pieces of energy getting stuck underneath near the Northeast. Old D10 ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png New D10 ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_6.png And sitting back on Nov 29th there was no shot In hell that ensemble gave us any idea that the from NYC north you were going to see 8C Below normal in the 4 days following the end of that run.I think there are a few posts alluding to not to buy the 500 looks on the EC In its LR . It Just washes out for some reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 week 3 and 4 much better Great to see there's a light at the end of the tunnel. That should calm some nerves, mine included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Great improvement on the weeklies. Winter uncancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 week 3 and 4 much better The CFS weeklies also start the ball rolling in a better direction after December 20th. Looks like the a move to a more neutral/negative EPO which could set the table for those heights to build toward Greenland and the Pole by the time January rolls around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Great improvement on the weeklies. Winter uncancel I can't understand why some would even consider canceling winter at this point. Also, posts made show the present and future pattern matching December El Nino climo fairly well. We'll just have to be a little patient for a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The CFS weeklies also start the ball rolling in a better direction after December 20th. Looks like the a move to a more neutral/negative EPO which could set the table for those heights to build toward Greenland and the Pole by the time January rolls around. cfs-avg_z500a5d_nhem_4.png cfs-avg_z500a5d_nhem_5.png I like the look of the CFS, as you can see by week 4 the Aleutian low has pulled back west building an -EPO/+PNA pattern. You also see some above normal heights near the North Pole...that could be the start of an -AO developing. Remember last year our pattern set in just after christmas. Why anyone would cancel winter on the 4th of December is just ridiculous, this is typical El Niño climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Plus another storm hit 3 days later in the mid atlantic but I don't think affected NYC as much but some places got back to back hits (both on the NESIS list) ISP reported only 2" for the 1/22/87 storm and Setauket reported nothing for either of those two....and the averages from these locations make up an important component of these maps: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/SnowClimo/SnowClimoMain1.html And while I am ranting about that, ISP's "least snowiest" December is in the books as 2003 (scroll to bottom): http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/Winter2011-2012/ISP.html Anyone believe that? At least since about 2005, the contract observers at ISP have been doing a reasonable job. The components of the ISP 30 year climo averages from the years preceding 2005 are wrong. The only long term reliable snowfall record on LI is from the BNL at Upton (and maybe Bridgehampton), hence Upton gets it's own pink blob on the map in the first link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I like the look of the CFS, as you can see by week 4 the Aleutian low has pulled back west building an -EPO/+PNA pattern. You also see some above normal heights near the North Pole...that could be the start of an -AO developing. Remember last year our pattern set in just after christmas. Why anyone would cancel winter on the 4th of December is just ridiculous, this is typical El Niño climo. It seems to have the same idea as the JMA winter forecast issued back on November 14th. The JMA is doing very well so far for December with the dominant +EPO pattern that is developing. It drops the EPO to more neutral or negative in January. The critical part of the forecast is how long until heights build over to the Pole and Greenland. The JMA takes its time and has the lowest AO of the winter in February. But its still too early to tell how long that process will take once we can get rid of the December +EPO that is typical for El Ninos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 It seems to have the same idea as the JMA winter forecast issued back on November 14th. The JMA is doing very well so far for December with the dominant +EPO pattern that is developing. It drops the EPO to more neutral or negative in January. The critical part of the forecast is how long until heights build over to the Pole and Greenland. The JMA takes its time and has the lowest AO of the winter in February. But its still too early to tell how long that process will take once we can get rid of the December +EPO that is typical for El Ninos. DEC.png JAN.png FEB.png I think the euro ensembles day 12 - 15 onward are already pushing the higher heights north towards hudson bay and by week 3 the weeklies are north of there while it builds the trough underneath. We totally miss the torch. A few days above but that's it . This has been my argument since page 1. Mute torch has been my opinion and now and now I don't buy it at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I think the euro ensembles day 12 - 15 onward are already pushing the higher heights north towards hudson bay and by week 3 the weeklies are north of there while it builds the trough underneath. We totally miss the torch. A few days above but that's it . This has been my argument since page 1. Mute torch has been my opinion and now and now I don't buy it at all. The past couple days the EURO ens. Have been more encouraging for cold and blocking towards the end of the month for sure. This all goes to plan in an El Nino Winter paul. I personally am excited for the post 20th period as we may actually be in the process in stepping down to the pattern we all want, +PNA, -NAO, -EPO, -AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Last night's GFS ensembles after Day 13 have been the best yet...only 3 of these showing a horrendous pattern for us, just a few days ago it was about 10 of 12 being horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 The model forecasts are now weaker with the MJO progression in phase 7. Which maybe one reason the guidance might be muting the warm-up the next couple of weeks. Phase 7 with El Nino background is a warm phase, most so for the Midwest in December: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 12z GFS much colder in the LR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Nice to see the country cold and a active STJ on the long range op gfs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Nice to see the country cold and a active STJ on the long range op gfs... Indeed, promising changes on the OP/Ens. Of the GFS/EURO the past couple days. Fits the mold of an El Nino winter gradually stepping down into a colder And snowier pattern on the EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I think I'm going to be wrong on our torch. We might get mild but not crazy torch. All models have been muting it for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I think I'm going to be wrong on our torch. We might get mild but not crazy torch. All models have been muting it for us.Yes paul has been nailing that home for weeks now about the models overdoing the warmth during this period of relaxationFurthermore, its nice to see the pattern change actually showing on some of the long range models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 I think I'm going to be wrong on our torch. We might get mild but not crazy torch. All models have been muting it for us. The Euro had 850s over the Plains of +10 to +12C 2-3 days ago, now its more like 0C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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