Rising confidence in favorable period for snow Dec 15 - Jan 1

[Allsnow]

The 2nd storm was really odd, it was about as Niña like a storm you could have in a very non La Niña like pattern. And we sort of overachieved in that event too much like the first.

 

yes, the nyc metro had the hot hand that winter. Phl got a ugly shaft(they have since made up for it) by missing most of the december storms…then being to dry in the high ratio clipper and missing a big snowstorm to its south in the middle of January.

 

 

then turned to sleet for the end of january storm 

[Radders]

At the time, i thought that 12/5/2003 snowstorm was pretty epic.. I was visiting NYC from the UK (I lived in the UK back then and hadn't moved here permanently) and it was my first experience as a Brit with seeing heavy snow fall in a big city. We just don't get these types of events back in the UK.  I wasn't really into weather as much then, but it was kind of what got me hooked on tracking snow.. Funny to hear that it wasn't really that epic (in comparison to what has happened since) - The media in the UK were even hyping it before I left for my trip LOL.

 

(sorry this probably should be in the banter thread)

[Stormlover74]

At the time, i thought that 12/5/2003 snowstorm was pretty epic.. I was visiting NYC from the UK (I lived in the UK back then and hadn't moved here permanently) and it was my first experience as a Brit with seeing heavy snow fall in a big city. We just don't get these types of events back in the UK. I wasn't really into weather as much then, but it was kind of what got me hooked on tracking snow.. Funny to hear that it wasn't really that epic (in comparison to what has happened since) - The media in the UK were even hyping it before I left for my trip LOL.

(sorry this probably should be in the banter thread)

Was still pretty epic. At 12"+ its the largest pre December 10th storm in at least the last 30+ years

[mulen]

Katy bar the door storm dec.5 2003 wind field was impressive had to cancel a bowling party for my younger son.see ya

[Doorman]

Today's 18Z GFS   500mb animation

last frame is at 300hrs   DEC18th

 

Forget your indexes and typhoon curve enhancements -imho-

 

That flat line EKG looks steady and true, until it breaks down (when?)

 Pac flow should keep us Zonal and away from MECS  snowstorm parameters

 

basic guidance that is hard to ignore 

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=gfs&area=npac&cycle=20141203%2018%20UTC&param=500_temp_ht&fourpan=no&imageSize=M&ps=area

 

 

 

  Extrap  the Tap

[Allsnow]

Today's 18Z GFS 500mb animation

last frame is at 300hrs DEC18th

Forget your indexes and typhoon curve enhancements -imho-

That flat line EKG looks steady and true, until it breaks down (when?)

Pac flow should keep us Zonal and away from MECS snowstorm parameters

basic guidance that is hard to ignore

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=gfs&area=npac&cycle=20141203%2018%20UTC&param=500_temp_ht&fourpan=no&imageSize=M&ps=area

Extrap the Tap

Cue Dave Schwartz from the weather channel when on air giving the 5 day forecast back in 1999, while stuck in a zonal pattern he started singing "suspicious minds" by Elvis aka " caught in a trap, and we can't walk out"

[Doorman]

Cue Dave Schwartz from the weather channel when on air giving the 5 day forecast back in 1999, while stuck in a zonal pattern he started singing "suspicious minds" by Elvis aka " caught in a trap, and we can't walk out"

A.S.  nice ref

 

Some may be singing Blue Christmas ....come the 25th  

 

http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/semaine2_combinee_e.html#Global

 

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/ensemble/naefs/semaine2/images/2014120312_054@007_E1_global_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_186.png

[Ralph Wiggum]

Cue Dave Schwartz from the weather channel when on air giving the 5 day forecast back in 1999, while stuck in a zonal pattern he started singing "suspicious minds" by Elvis aka " caught in a trap, and we can't walk out"

They dont make them like they used to.

[bluewave]

All in all it sums up why trying to make winter forecasts is crazy hard. We have seen many end up correct but many end up wrong too. El Ninos and La Ninas I find are the toughest because you never quite know how they will behave, not all strong versions or weak versions ever behave the same each time. 2010-2011 didn't act at all like a La Nina to make matters even harder. One concern I had going into this winter was the atmospheric memory, El Ninos following a long period dominated by La Ninas or a strong La Niña can act La Niña like and vice versa, that may have been what caused the 2010-2011 winter to behave Niño like and partly why 95-96 may have also acted somewhat like an El Niño. The concern I had was we could end up mostly positive on the AO and NAO if that memory took hold.

 

The other thing is that the two more recent El Ninos of 2002 and 2009 were outliers for the amount of blocking

which produced well above normal snowfall in NYC and cold. So far this year is behaving like a more typical

El Nino. We are not seeing a  strong blocking signal so the Aleutian Low was able to create a +EPO pattern

with mild Pacific air moving into North America. This year was tricky in that October was giving blocking

and snowcover signals similar to 2002 and 2009.

 

 

El Nino Decembers in NYC since 1980:

 

Departures calculated  current 30 year average of 37.5:

 

December 2009.......-1.6.....12.4"

December 2006.......+6.1.... 0"

December 2004.......+0.9.....3.0"

December 2002.......-1.5.....11.0" 

December 1997.......+0.8....T

December 1994.......+4.7....T

december 1991.......+2.1....0.7"

December 1987......+2.0....2.6"

December 1986......+1.5....0.6"

December 1982......+5.3....3.0"

[Allsnow]

Guidance overnight continues to suggest this ugly pattern lasts into Xmass....there are hints of change at the far end of the runs. Going to be some epic meltdowns Xmass week.

[Absolute Humidity]

The other thing is that the two more recent El Ninos of 2002 and 2009 were outliers for the amount of blocking

which produced well above normal snowfall in NYC and cold. So far this year is behaving like a more typical

El Nino. We are not seeing a  strong blocking signal so the Aleutian Low was able to create a +EPO pattern

with mild Pacific air moving into North America. This year was tricky in that October was giving blocking

and snowcover signals similar to 2002 and 2009.

 

 

El Nino Decembers in NYC since 1980:

 

Departures calculated  current 30 year average of 37.5:

 

December 2009.......-1.6.....12.4"

December 2006.......+6.1.... 0"

December 2004.......+0.9.....3.0"

December 2002.......-1.5.....11.0" 

December 1997.......+0.8....T

December 1994.......+4.7....T

december 1991.......+2.1....0.7"

December 1987......+2.0....2.6"

December 1986......+1.5....0.6"

December 1982......+5.3....3.0"

Remove 2002 and 2009 and wow, what an amazing list of garbage winters overall (excluding 2004-5).

[Brian5671]

Guidance overnight continues to suggest this ugly pattern lasts into Xmass....there are hints of change at the far end of the runs. Going to be some epic meltdowns Xmass week.

until the change gets past the 10 day mark, it's going to be ugly-both pattern wise and post wise!

[famartin]

Remove 2002 and 2009 and wow, what an amazing list of garbage winters overall (excluding 2004-5).

86-87 wasn't bad either...

[Absolute Humidity]

86-87 wasn't bad either...

for us it was great. For New York City it's stunk.

[bluewave]

Remove 2002 and 2009 and wow, what an amazing list of garbage winters overall (excluding 2004-5).

 

While I would rate winters like 09-10 and  02-03 as outstanding, 1982-1983 and 1986-1987 were bright spots

in general snow drought period. The 2-11-83 snowstorm along with the surprise on 1-22-87 made those

winters memorable for me.

[Absolute Humidity]

While I would rate winters like 09-10 and  02-03 as outstanding, 1982-1983 and 1986-1987 were bright spots

in general snow drought period. The 2-11-83 snowstorm along with the surprise on 1-22-87 made those

winters memorable for me.

True that, I shouldn't be so negative but that diffused pig in the GOA has me real concerned.

[uncle W]

El Nino Decembers in NYC...mei/oni years...

year...ave temp...max min snow bigsnow precipitation

1951.......38.6.......64.....8.....3.3".....3.3".....4.28"

1952.......38.4.......59...12.....7.4".....4.4".....4.12"

1953.......41.3.......63...15.......T..........T......4.42"

1957.......40.2.......59...18.....8.7".....8.0".....5.26"

1958.......29.4.......55...12.....3.8".....3.3".....1.25"

1963.......31.2.......55...11...11.3".....6.6".....2.31"

1965.......40.5.......63...18.......T..........T......1.72"

1968.......34.3.......60.....9.....7.0".....5.2".....4.15"

1969.......33.4.......60...14.....6.8".....6.8".....7.07"

1972.......38.5.......61...19........T.........T......6.09"

1976.......29.9.......55.....9.....5.1".....3.1".....2.29"

1977.......35.7.......56...13.....0.4".....0.4".....5.06"

1979.......41.1.......65...20.....3.5".....3.5".....2.69"

1982.......42.8.......72...17.....3.0".....3.0".....1.47"

1986.......39.0.......59...19.....0.6".....0.6".....6.16"

1987.......39.5.......60.....8.....2.6".....2.6".....2.17"

1991.......39.6.......66...13.....0.7".....0.7".....4.26"

1994.......42.2.......65...19........T.........T......2.90"

1997.......38.3.......54...17........T.........T......4.27"

2002.......36.0.......60...19...11.0".....6.0".....4.06"

2003.......37.6.......58...21...19.8"...14.0".....5.42"

2004.......38.4.......59...11.....3.0".....1.8".....3.71"

2006.......43.6.......70...18........T.........T......2.15"

2009.......35.9.......66...16...12.4"...10.9".....7.27"

 

average..37.7.......61...15.....4.6".....3.5"..............

1870-

2009.......35.6.......60...13.....5.4"................3.58"............

1950-

2013.......37.2..............................................................

16 out of 24 were mild...5 were cold...3 were near the long term average...8 were snowy...10 were not...6 were near normal...6 had a 6" or greater snowstorm...14 were wet...9 were dry...one near average...

it looks like we will see an above average temperature December...It doesn't mean the month will end up a dud...El Nino winters usually have a good February...TWT...

[bluewave]

True that, I shouldn't be so negative but that diffused pig in the GOA has me real concerned.

 

Yeah, unfortunately that's usually a big player in El Nino Decembers. 

[SnoSki14]

Yeah, unfortunately that's usually a big player in El Nino Decembers.

What usually then causes the big changes that occur in an El Niño December to say a February where the months can be total opposites with one being warm and the other cold.

[Stormlover74]

While I would rate winters like 09-10 and  02-03 as outstanding, 1982-1983 and 1986-1987 were bright spots

in general snow drought period. The 2-11-83 snowstorm along with the surprise on 1-22-87 made those

winters memorable for me.

It's weird that I always remember 1/22/87 so differently. I clearly remember 8-12" of snow being forecast 2-3 days out and only mixing with a little sleet late in the day. Otherwise it was always supposed to be and was a heavy snow event. Seems like just east of the city things were drastically different....at least based on forecast vs what actually happened. We also had at least 3 more decent snows that winter. Similiar to 04-05 in that everything occurred from the 3rd week of January onward. 86-87 just didn't have that much cold air around

[bluewave]

It's weird that I always remember 1/22/87 so differently. I clearly remember 8-12" of snow being forecast 2-3 days out and only mixing with a little sleet late in the day. Otherwise it was always supposed to be and was a heavy snow event. Seems like just east of the city things were drastically different....at least based on forecast vs what actually happened. We also had at least 3 more decent snows that winter. Similiar to 04-05 in that everything occurred from the 3rd week of January onward. 86-87 just didn't have that much cold air around

 

Here on Long Island I can remember the forecast of snow quickly changing to rain. I was in Garden City that day

and snow broke out late in the morning and became very heavy by 12-1pm. Once thundersnow broke out and

the visibility dropped to under a 1/4 mile, I knew that the storm wasn't going to change to rain. That was one

of the longest drives from Garden City to Long Beach that I have ever experienced. It took me close to 4 hours

to make the trip which normally took about 30 minutes . It was the best positive forecast bust since the 1-20-78 event

that was supposed to be a rainstorm also.

[bluewave]

What usually then causes the big changes that occur in an El Niño December to say a February where the months can be total opposites with one being warm and the other cold.

 

It generally takes until January and February for a more favorable blocking pattern for snow to emerge.

 

 

 

[Stormlover74]

Here on Long Island I can remember the forecast of snow quickly changing to rain. I was in Garden City that day

and snow broke out late in the morning and became very heavy by 12-1pm. Once thundersnow broke out and

the visibility dropped to under a 1/4 mile, I knew that the storm wasn't going to change to rain. That was one

of the longest drives from Garden City to Long Beach that I have ever experienced. It took me close to 4 hours

to make the trip which normally took about 30 minutes . It was the best positive forecast bust since the 1-20-78 event

that was supposed to be a rainstorm also.

It was definitely a nice storm. Hard to believe it was the only 10"+ storm between 83 and 93 when they are so common now. I ended up with just under a foot and it all fell during the day in about 7 hours. Would have to wait 6 years for anything close

[PB GFI]

It generally takes until January and February for a more favorable blocking pattern for snow to emerge.

 

DEC.gif

 

JAN.gif

 

FEB.gif

JMA monthlies for JFM at 500 went right to this look yesterday . 

[MJO812]

JMA monthlies for JFM at 500 went right to this look yesterday .

Can we finally get a good March snowstorm?

[bluewave]

JMA monthlies for JFM at 500 went right to this look yesterday . 

 

Yeah, AER is following a similar progression.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/12/02/why-prosperous-autumn-snows-in-eurasia-may-portend-a-brutal-east-coast-winter/

[Absolute Humidity]

It was definitely a nice storm. Hard to believe it was the only 10"+ storm between 83 and 93 when they are so common now. I ended up with just under a foot and it all fell during the day in about 7 hours. Would have to wait 6 years for anything close

Similar here, was initially suppose to be one of those typical snow to rain forecasts until 24 hours in but then 6-8"'forecast ended up becoming 16" MECS HECS event in like 12 hours of snowfall.

[bluewave]

It was definitely a nice storm. Hard to believe it was the only 10"+ storm between 83 and 93 when they are so common now. I ended up with just under a foot and it all fell during the day in about 7 hours. Would have to wait 6 years for anything close

 

That was a tough period for snow lovers. Central Long Island did very well with the 12-13-88 surprise norlun

but most of Nassau and west saw very little or nothing.

[Weathergun]

It generally takes until January and February for a more favorable blocking pattern for snow to emerge.

 

DEC.gif

 

JAN.gif

 

FEB.gif

 

WSI tweet this image couple days ago. Very similar look for January and February:

[Stormlover74]

Can we finally get a good March snowstorm?

Eh they're overrated. Melts quickly and most people are ready for spring by that point