Rising confidence in favorable period for snow Dec 15 - Jan 1

[REDMK6GLI]

Yea for the next two weeks,but making assumptions about patterns 3-4 weeks away is foolish.LR outlooks can change on a dime..look at November..even the first week in December a few weeks ago was supposed to be a torch

Agree here 100%. Blowtorches forecasted 7-10 days+ have been alot less or muted when that time period actually arrived.

Also a pretty big spike of PNA coming next week and some cold HP's coming from canada could sneak another pretty big storm on EC like thanksgiving. Atleast thats my opinion but who knows. Seems that some here have already punted december

[Allsnow]

Im not saying it will be warm, prob just a bit above normal. The overall pattern sucks...and will take more then a couple pf days to reverse. December is in trouble

[Allsnow]

All the cold is being dumped into the PAC...it's not good...then Canada starts to warm...

[REDMK6GLI]

Im not saying it will be warm, prob just a bit above normal. The overall pattern sucks...and will take more then a couple pf days to reverse. December is in trouble

If this pattern persists to the 15th i would be starting to be concerned. right now it is the 2nd of december and any talks of december being a wash based on highly questionable LR runs at best from the GFS/EURO are grossly premature.

I still doubt NYC doesnt get atleast a 6" snowfall this month especially later in the month when indices including the MJO are expected to be favorable again. We've seen this is Nino years before where it was putrid start only to finish alot better in the end

[earthlight]

I'm not sure where some were getting the idea that December was going to be this amazingly snowy month overall. The idea of variance is well-noted in +ENSO onset years, and seasons that feature virtual wire-to-wire cold like 1976 are the exception rather than the rule. The majority of our "good" El Nino years don't feature a favorable pattern for SECS+ events until late December. With that being said, this month should not be a torch on the East Coast, and I continue to like 2003's general distribution in terms of temp departures, with near normal values for our area and a warm Plains/Mid-west. This signature looks reasonable going forward.

 

The NW Asian low continues to be shunted southeastward in the medium range, and thus its effects in terms of lessening the wave activity flux should wear off over the next week. The tropospheric pattern has been and continues to be night and day from 2011, if anyone was wondering. November 2011 foreshadowed our ultimate doom via the persistent one-eyed Cyclops near Alaska. This was not the case this year. A favorable November / less favorable December is quite common in El Nino years.

 

Strongly agree. I think we're at a point right now where people are looking at the forecast models, seeing red (literally), and starting to lose their proverbial sh*t. The posts of "December is a lost cause" and "this winter is going down the tubes" are uncalled for, but the truth of the matter is that nobody forecasted this period of time to be cold or snowy from the get-go. 

 

We're actually following a fairly typical progression for the ENSO state and we continue to have a favorable PDO look to the Pacific and a well positioned cold pool in the Northern Atlantic. Would it be nice to have either A) A sudden stratospheric warming event to totally disrupt the vortex, or A recurving typhoon to kick start some more blocking or a pattern change in the meantime? Sure. But I'm perfectly comfortable with the more typical step-down process toward a cold and snowier pattern by late December as well.

 

Some, apparently, are not. PS -- Tom, it's December 2nd and we're already seeing these posts. Aren't you excited for the rest of this winter? 

[IsentropicLift]

The PV is too far northeast. It's keeping lower heights over Greenland. Patience is key. No Winter has ever featured wall to wall cold bad snow in this area.

[MJO812]

Last winter was a A but the cold/dry end of feb and march was annoying

March was a disaster. At least 3 storms missed the area to the south.

[CIK62]

While this forum says improving conditions for cold/storms in second half of month this shows us barely getting to normal 2mT's by XMAS, with a detour at midmonth.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2014120200/cfs-avg_T2ma5d_us.html

[Isotherm]

Some, apparently, are not. PS -- Tom, it's December 2nd and we're already seeing these posts. Aren't you excited for the rest of this winter? 

 

 

Yeah I mean it'd be different if the fall progression up until now was horrendous and if we were in a non-Nino year, but we checked virtually all of the items off the proverbial bucket list. What we're seeing right now is pretty classic early season +ENSO forcing. If it continues throughout the entire winter, well then, we're going to need to go back to square one with a number of different longer term techniques.

[famartin]

Yeah I mean it'd be different if the fall progression up until now was horrendous and if we were in a non-Nino year, but we checked virtually all of the items off the proverbial bucket list. What we're seeing right now is pretty classic early season +ENSO forcing. If it continues throughout the entire winter, well then, we're going to need to go back to square one with a number of different longer term techniques.

A couple possible reasons...

 

The last 4-5 winters have made people think too positively than is realistic, or encouraged a "boom or bust" mentality.

 

A belief that since last winter was so good, this winter has better odds of being crap.

 

Simple ignorance regarding how historic winters progress.

 

(Note:  I'm not calling for a historic winter, just pointing out that there's still a wide open window for one)

[earthlight]

A couple possible reasons...

 

The last 4-5 winters have made people think too positively than is realistic, or encouraged a "boom or bust" mentality.

 

A belief that since last winter was so good, this winter has better odds of being crap.

 

Simple ignorance regarding how historic winters progress.

 

(Note:  I'm not calling for a historic winter, just pointing out that there's still a wide open window for one)

 

I think this is an entirely different issue, but one that will certainly continue to garner attention over the next few years. The stretch of winters we have had the pleasure of experience have certainly brought the expectations up for many. 

 

But overall, the problem lies in a lack of understanding and patience as to how the pattern will progress. Part of this has to do with winter forecasts/outlooks and the comprehension of them. I get the feeling that most people didn't really read into the details of many winter outlooks which actually forecasted a mild or changeable start to the winter. 

 

But, as we know, there's nothing we can do about it. Most of us anticipated this period of time being moderated and not featuring much snow at all -- with a change toward the mid/end of the month and a very favorable winter thereafter. 

[MJO812]

I think this is an entirely different issue, but one that will certainly continue to garner attention over the next few years. The stretch of winters we have had the pleasure of experience have certainly brought the expectations up for many. 

 

But overall, the problem lies in a lack of understanding and patience as to how the pattern will progress. Part of this has to do with winter forecasts/outlooks and the comprehension of them. I get the feeling that most people didn't really read into the details of many winter outlooks which actually forecasted a mild or changeable start to the winter. 

 

But, as we know, there's nothing we can do about it. Most of us anticipated this period of time being moderated and not featuring much snow at all -- with a change toward the mid/end of the month and a very favorable winter thereafter. 

I think a lot of people thought that winter was going to come in with force after the coastal storm last week. Many outlooks I have seen stated that December should start out warm with a gradual change to colder weather as the month went on.

[earthlight]

I think a lot of people thought that winter was going to come in with force after the coastal storm last week. Many outlooks I have seen stated that December should start out warm with a gradual change to colder weather as the month went on.

 

Here's a post of mine from three weeks ago which laid out exactly what was expected to happen, including the weenie freakout:

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44757-november-2014/page-17#entry3120028

[REDMK6GLI]

Here's a post of mine from three weeks ago which laid out exactly what was expected to happen, including the weenie freakout:

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44757-november-2014/page-17#entry3120028

Right on cue john! its amazing how people tend to forget about pattern reloads and atmospheric developments that tell you what should happen in a forecast. Relying solely on what a model forecasts especially post D 7 is setting yourself up for some level of dissapointment. You outlined it perfectly that beginning and middle of december will be anything but awesome.

[SnowGoose69]

Here's a post of mine from three weeks ago which laid out exactly what was expected to happen, including the weenie freakout:

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44757-november-2014/page-17#entry3120028

 

Yeah I didn't expect it to be this bad though...its not even that bad yet, ironically it may get worse but for a diffrerent reason...the 12Z GFS and some ensembles from 00Z show that the GOA low may finally retrograde Day 10-14, the problem is the PNA may decrease slightly and the PV lifts completely out of Canada...the end result may be we end up even warmer beyond Day 10 than we do before that...I did not quite expect that.  I think we may need to wait til this stratospheric warming we have been seeing the last week ultimately takes affect down in our world.

[Allsnow]

I remember seeing the 04-05 analog thrown around for this winter. That December I believe was mild with a ton of rain events. The week of Xmass had a few rain events. I believe we missed a costal storm right after New Year's Eve.

[Isotherm]

In my outlook I explicitly stated that the first half of December should be warmer than normal, the theme for December in the analogs was one of variance, and to anticipate a slow start to winter w/ this month being the warmest of the three months relative to normal. Not much to do but wait and watch to see if the pattern progresses now.

[MJO812]

I remember seeing the 04-05 analog thrown around for this winter. That December I believe was mild with a ton of rain events. The week of Xmass had a few rain events. I believe we missed a costal storm right after New Year's Eve.

Just looked back at December 04. It didn't look mild at all. A lot of cold shots with deep troughs in the east and wintry precip. There was no coastal right after NYE.

 

 

[uncle W]

I remember seeing the 04-05 analog thrown around for this winter. That December I believe was mild with a ton of rain events. The week of Xmass had a few rain events. I believe we missed a costal storm right after New Year's Eve.

it was 60 degrees New Years day 2005...The first half of January and February 2005 were quite warm...The second halves were very snowy and cold...March was good also...there was a whole months worth of nothingness in January and February...But when it got good it was really good...

[MJO812]

it was 60 degrees New Years day 2005...The first half of January and February 2005 were quite warm...The second halves were very snowy and cold...March was good also...there was a whole months worth of nothingness in January and February...But when it got good it was really good...

I remember going to L and B  with my dad on New Years Eve and then playing stickball after we ate. It was really warm. NYC still saw a lot of snow that winter. That January turned really cold as the month went on with a blizzard near the end of the month.

[Allsnow]

it was 60 degrees New Years day 2005...The first half of January and February 2005 were quite warm...The second halves were very snowy and cold...March was good also...there was a whole months worth of nothingness in January and February...But when it got good it was really good...

How was December 04? I guess the costal was before New Year's Eve. It crushed the cape and we ended up with 3 inches of unexpected snow in holmdel. It got real mild after the storm

[Weathergun]

I think this is an entirely different issue, but one that will certainly continue to garner attention over the next few years. The stretch of winters we have had the pleasure of experience have certainly brought the expectations up for many. 

 

But overall, the problem lies in a lack of understanding and patience as to how the pattern will progress. Part of this has to do with winter forecasts/outlooks and the comprehension of them. I get the feeling that most people didn't really read into the details of many winter outlooks which actually forecasted a mild or changeable start to the winter. 

 

But, as we know, there's nothing we can do about it. Most of us anticipated this period of time being moderated and not featuring much snow at all -- with a change toward the mid/end of the month and a very favorable winter thereafter. 

This is somewhat correct. However, I don't think the amount of recovery of stratospheric PV some of model forecasts are now showing, were anticipated for mid-December. There was assumption that this disruption will resume in mid to late December, once this NW Asian low leaves. But so far I see no renewed significant warming event through 10-15 days on models. If this trend continues through this Friday, I think this will push the favorable cold and snow period back further, until we see another major disruption of stratospheric PV.  This process often to several weeks to occur again and then impact us. The PDO and ENSO are doing as what we hoped so far. Some more uncertainty now with the MJO progression. But if a strong stratospheric PV persists on top of all that, it will continue be a problem for us.

[REDMK6GLI]

At the same time though people need to be a bit wary we could end up being SOL for all of December there are some people just as overly optimistic as there are pessimistic. There is a chance the euro MJO forecast could be right and if it is, bye bye December most likely. The other is that stratospheric warming while it does often have positive effects eventually for cold and snow does not always do so on this side of the pole, it could end up showing it's impacts over Europe. We saw that in the 11-12 winter when an SSW developed and everyone finally thought we were going to get a pattern change and it occurred over Europe instead.

If that happened this place would be loaded with bust calls inside and outside serious discussion threads. That is also a viable outcome as well, the SSW progression lets hope delivers the goods to our side of the globe.

[RedSky]

A couple possible reasons...

 

The last 4-5 winters have made people think too positively than is realistic, or encouraged a "boom or bust" mentality.

 

A belief that since last winter was so good, this winter has better odds of being crap.

 

Simple ignorance regarding how historic winters progress.

 

(Note:  I'm not calling for a historic winter, just pointing out that there's still a wide open window for one)

The arctic outbreak cold November with an I95 diving line event has really amped expectations for many to go along with the many good looking winter outlooks. Now it's December and the extended range says mild and tranquil, let's hope the wait won't be until January.

[MJO812]

How was December 04?

 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2004.html

[USCG RS]

Right on cue john! its amazing how people tend to forget about pattern reloads and atmospheric developments that tell you what should happen in a forecast. Relying solely on what a model forecasts especially post D 7 is setting yourself up for some level of dissapointment. You outlined it perfectly that beginning and middle of december will be anything but awesome.

With all due respect to everyone in this forum, it's called forecasting, not computer model regurgitation. In other words, if computer models were perfect, we would have just one, or one for each aspect of the weather and we wouldn't have these discussions. What too many people here fail to realize is that computer models are strictly aids to guide the forecaster in a way they should look. Forecasting is a puzzle, you take what the computer models show, you add in your knowledge, a pinch of your gut and then you stir the pot to produce a forecast, doing the same several hours later (rinse, wash, repeat). To simply spit out that the Euro says this at D7/8, etc, is not forecasting and will set you up for failure every single time. Remember, global patterns take time to change and as such you have to be patient with the progression (two edged sword - when it's a good pattern that we like, it prolongs it, and obviously visa versa when we don't like it). It is taking a while for the pattern to unlock cold, but all the teleconnections are there. I'll repeat that, teleconnections still look very favorable. Global weather patterns are just that; a pattern, which a skilled and experienced forecaster (such as some are in here - John I use for this example-) can interpret them. Is it flawless and always on cue? Of course not, but the teleconnections and patterns are there. The Aleution low is in an ok spot, but forecast to become more favorable. The ENSO this year historically argues for a better back end to winter than front loading or wire to wire (which is exceedingly rare). The AO and NAO are not quite cooperating yet, but they are showing signs of improvement and the stratosphere is primed for another warming event in the medium range. Furthermore, the GOM and the Pacific are both open for business this year (admittedly a blessing and a curse) and this is the set up that sets the stage for historic (not saying it will be historic) winters. Do not forget we also need warm latent air for the plethora of moisture we want to see dumped upon us as snow; and for that the coast needs to thred a proverbial needle. Lastly, though the MJO is a wild card, it appears to be lining up rather favorably in the medium range as well. My takeaway from right now would be this : 1) All the signs are there for a great winter 2) Those who are very knowledgeable are not worried and until they get worried, I would stop punting the winter which hasn't started yet and 3) The older I get, the more I truly realize that patience is a virtue.

[Allsnow]

This is somewhat correct. However, I don't think the amount of recovery of stratospheric PV some of model forecasts are now showing, were anticipated for mid-December. There was assumption that this disruption will resume in mid to late December, once this NW Asian low leaves. But so far I see no renewed significant warming event through 10-15 days on models. If this trend continues through this Friday, I think this will push the favorable cold and snow period back further, until we see another major disruption of stratospheric PV. This process often to several weeks to occur again and then impact us. The PDO and ENSO are doing as what we hoped so far. Some more uncertainty now with the MJO progression. But if a strong stratospheric PV persists on top of all that, it will continue be a problem for us.

This is a really good post. Yes most outlooks called for a mild first two weeks of December. But the overall pattern I feel now is worst then some anticipated. The cold is not exactly up in canada anymore...we need a few weeks to reshuffle

[DaculaWeather]

With all due respect to everyone in this forum, it's called forecasting, not computer model regurgitation. In other words, if computer models were perfect, we would have just one, or one for each aspect of the weather and we wouldn't have these discussions. What too many people here fail to realize is that computer models are strictly aids to guide the forecaster in a way they should look. Forecasting is a puzzle, you take what the computer models show, you add in your knowledge, a pinch of your gut and then you stir the pot to produce a forecast, doing the same several hours later (rinse, wash, repeat). To simply spit out that the Euro says this at D7/8, etc, is not forecasting and will set you up for failure every single time. Remember, global patterns take time to change and as such you have to be patient with the progression (two edged sword - when it's a good pattern that we like, it prolongs it, and obviously visa versa when we don't like it). It is taking a while for the pattern to unlock cold, but all the teleconnections are there. I'll repeat that, teleconnections still look very favorable. Global weather patterns are just that; a pattern, which a skilled and experienced forecaster (such as some are in here - John I use for this example-) can interpret them. Is it flawless and always on cue? Of course not, but the teleconnections and patterns are there. The Aleution low is in an ok spot, but forecast to become more favorable. The ENSO this year historically argues for a better back end to winter than front loading or wire to wire (which is exceedingly rare). The AO and NAO are not quite cooperating yet, but they are showing signs of improvement and the stratosphere is primed for another warming event in the medium range. Furthermore, the GOM and the Pacific are both open for business this year (admittedly a blessing and a curse) and this is the set up that sets the stage for historic (not saying it will be historic) winters. Do not forget we also need warm latent air for the plethora of moisture we want to see dumped upon us as snow; and for that the coast needs to thred a proverbial needle. Lastly, though the MJO is a wild card, it appears to be lining up rather favorably in the medium range as well. My takeaway from right now would be this : 1) All the signs are there for a great winter 2) Those who are very knowledgeable are not worried and until they get worried, I would stop punting the winter which hasn't started yet and 3) The older I get, the more I truly realize that patience is a virtue.

Bingo...

[Dsnowx53]

This is somewhat correct. However, I don't think the amount of recovery of stratospheric PV some of model forecasts are now showing, were anticipated for mid-December. There was assumption that this disruption will resume in mid to late December, once this NW Asian low leaves. But so far I see no renewed significant warming event through 10-15 days on models. If this trend continues through this Friday, I think this will push the favorable cold and snow period back further, until we see another major disruption of stratospheric PV.  This process often to several weeks to occur again and then impact us. The PDO and ENSO are doing as what we hoped so far. Some more uncertainty now with the MJO progression. But if a strong stratospheric PV persists on top of all that, it will continue be a problem for us.

 

 

Yeah, the way the US is torching is the problem, rather than the torch itself. 

[KEITH L.I]

This is a really good post. Yes most outlooks called for a mild first two weeks of December. But the overall pattern I feel now is worst then some anticipated. The cold is not exactly up in canada anymore...we need a few weeks to reshuffle

Worst?..not really..it was supposed to be a mild period from the 1st-15th..this was talked about in the middle of last month from forecasters everywhere..Well we are in it now and it's sleeting outside..again stop looking at 15 day computer forecasts that are usually not correct and take a peak at sensible weather