jdrenken Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 A +PDO doesn't always translate into a strong -EPO pattern here in December. December 86-87 featured a strong +PDO but the EPO remained positive. One way or another, we'll need a retrogression of the Aleutian Low later this month for a more favorable pattern to begin to develop. 500.png Winter of '86-'87 is one of my favorite analogs this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Winter of '86-'87 is one of my favorite analogs this year. December was awful but we did pretty well from late January onward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 1, 2014 Author Share Posted December 1, 2014 GREAT POSTS BLUE WAVE a couple of points. FIRST... IF/ when the MJO swings around to PHASE 7 then 8 that does happen until DEC 11-12. From there it will take a few days before we see the impact on the pattern in the CONUS so we are talking DEC 15 or so. SECOND... I think the euro mean day 10 is close to being right . To me its been clear for a while that 1st half of DEC 2014 was always going to be mild or at least not cold. This has been reflected in my winter forecast. THIRD.... IF you re- consider the favorable -EPO/ +PNA/-NAO map posted above the STRONGEST anomalies is NOT a classic negative NAO at all.. it almost UK Scandinavian ridge. That is NOT that great for eastern US FOURTH... NOV 2014 was kind of freak or Black swan event triggered by the 924 mb Low in the Bering sea which was a EXTREME end of the bell curve event. Four arctic outbreaks... in NOV? Sorry I didn't see this earlier..took some time this weekend to get away from the weather models and data. What I've come back to see today is slightly disappointing but not quite a total train wreck (yet) of my ideas to start the thread. The stratospheric evolution trended away from what would benefit us the most. Obviously the heat flux is having some kind of impact but it seems like the vortex is really stubborn at multiple levels so we aren't seeing one specific disruption. Instead it looks like a step-down process with multiple warming events. The MJO, meanwhile, looks like a wild card here and the models are still very split on how things will play out. The GEFS now take it through Phase 8 with some amplitude and then into Phase 1 -- rather quickly, too. The Euro Ens have trended away from that idea and the MJO goes into the CDO from Phases 5/6. From a fundamental standpoint the pattern over the next few weeks is not ideal and we will probably be stalemated at least until the second week of December or 14 days from now. This is not surprising news, and was included in my original forecast, but there are some takeaways from the overall pattern that are important. The Aleutian low actually becomes such a behemoth -- very broad and anomalous in the mid levels -- that its effects on the mid level pattern down toward the West Coast of the US are not good. This is a classic loading pattern for Pac air moving into the US for a few days at least. Second, the models look like the want to hold on to the ridge just North of the EPO region and keep any NAO ridging very, very east based for the time being. I suspect we aren't going to see any real high latitude blocking develop until we have another step-down event with some pressure on the strat vortex. So while I'm not willing to say that the initial highlighted period isn't going to be favorable...I think there is a heightening chance that the second half of the period (from Dec 20 onward) will be the period to watch where the changes to the pattern will become noticeable and produce chances for snow on the East Coast. This is all changing very rapidly day to day, though, so the progression over the next week or so will be very important to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 John who knows maybe the pattern may turn favorable in time for a pattern that may promote a white christmas? Regardless almost certain the first 10-14 days are wash with snow chances outside of perfectly timed event in conjuction with a passing canadian HP. this isnt worrisome currently as El Nino patterns tend to "load up" throughout december and not really deliver the goods until later in winter (january, february and into march). Gotta say though the 50's this morning feels pretty damn good if its not gonna snow to he honest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 A SD OF 4- will save you from all an out 2 week wire to wire torch . We are going through 4 and 5 here on the MJO during this time and no one is roasting . As a matter of fact every 2 or 3 days will advertise a cool down and keeps people in the interior on their toes . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 1, 2014 Author Share Posted December 1, 2014 I'll give it to the 20th. If the bad news remains post 12/20 with no signs of improvement then I'm not crazy. What scientific reasoning do you have for this? Do you have any meteorological context to back up what you're saying about this "being like last winter" or things "going negative again after a lot of hype?" I'm not trying to be sarcastic, just asking seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 1, 2014 Author Share Posted December 1, 2014 A SD OF 4- will save you from all an out 2 week wire to wire torch . We are going through 4 and 5 here on the MJO during this time and no one is roasting . As a matter of fact every 2 or 3 days will advertise a cool down and keeps people in the interior on their toes . In this situation it's less about the numbers and more about the breadth of the negative anomalies in the Gulf of Alaska. When you take the overall pattern progression including that behemoth of a trough. I don't think this will be a wire to wire torch at all, either. Some above normal days definitely and not a good pattern for snow/cold by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 In this situation it's less about the numbers and more about the breadth of the negative anomalies in the Gulf of Alaska. When you take the overall pattern progression including that behemoth of a trough. I don't think this will be a wire to wire torch at all, either. Some above normal days definitely and not a good pattern for snow/cold by any means. When I see those Height rises on the WC I just look for a shortening of the wave lengths and that could spell trouble . Clearly the Interior and NE would benefit . I like the UKMET and the Euro ensemble MJO they don`t kill it after 5 they agree with the GFS and take it around. You are taking on the heart of the crud pattern ( as far as the MJO goes ) and you may be poking some holes in it . I think the GOA low retrogrades and pulls the ridge back and the Euro keeps hinting at the trough sneaking back underneath . I am not looking for a NEG NAO before Jan that`s typical in El Nino years . Too many think 77- 78 02 -03 09 -10 did not pull back . Not sure how right Cohen is with his Dec 20 - Feb 20 call , I sure hope he is , as he struggled last year . But I like his perspective and am willing to let the winter unfold . ( which really starts in 3 weeks ) . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 El Nino's very rarely deliver the goods in december and historically make they're reputation post new years. It has been well advertised over the past couple weeks that the first 10-14 days of december atleast will feature a crap pattern with +EPO and +AO and lack of any real blocking. the pattern will evolve better as we head deeper into december as im expecting some form of seperation of the PV to kick start the blocking. Dont panic, hearing this december 1st is severely premature, thats the nicest i can put it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 This isn't the picture you want to see right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 This isn't the picture you want to see right now. Thats exactly it, RIGHT NOW. Not the first time we've had december crap the bed and JFM make up for it in leaps and bounds. wayyyy to early for winter cancel calls IMO. If the pattern still looks like poop as we reach the last day of december only then may it be time to look into whats going wrong in the cold/ snowy forecasts. Even so punting should still not be happening. They're is currently almost no panic in this forum by well respected posters in all forums, that should give some peace to those who are already bringing the punting team on the field on 1st & 10 in the first quarter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 This isn't the picture you want to see right now. Patience . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Patience . Hopefully the MJO for the Euro is wrong Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 1, 2014 Author Share Posted December 1, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Hopefully the MJO for the Euro is wrong Euro It sure looks like it will be at least partially wrong, I've seen disagreements before between the models on the MJO but its not usually this extreme still as we get closer and closer in...I expect the GFS will be wrong too but its likely going to be between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 1, 2014 Author Share Posted December 1, 2014 The other potential kink the forecast for the medium range, and I'm surprised to not see this discussed more at length, is the potential recurving Typhoon which is still an invest but has been given a real boost by equatorial convection and is expected to develop over the next few days. So long as it does so, it looks likely to follow a mid level height pattern that could again recurve the system and help develop a favorable jet orientation for upstream effects by the second week of December. This includes the Aleutian low becoming more amplified, but tighter, and a high latitude block developing to its east over the West Coast of the USA into British Columbia and northward. We will have to see if this comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 The other potential kink the forecast for the medium range, and I'm surprised to not see this discussed more at length, is the potential recurving Typhoon which is still an invest but has been given a real boost by equatorial convection and is expected to develop over the next few days. So long as it does so, it looks likely to follow a mid level height pattern that could again recurve the system and help develop a favorable jet orientation for upstream effects by the second week of December. This includes the Aleutian low becoming more amplified, but tighter, and a high latitude block developing to its east over the West Coast of the USA into British Columbia and northward. We will have to see if this comes to fruition. Larry Cosgrove mentioned about this last night on facebook. He thinks that the typhoon is going to recurve and help change our weather pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 While there's a nice warming event now, the ECMWF show this day 10: Current: Day 10: its been showing that for a few runs. The PV does look to tighten up a good bit as we lose some favorable warming mechanisms ( wave breaking, mjo etc). We'll have to suck it up. Looks likes it's going to reload a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 The other potential kink the forecast for the medium range, and I'm surprised to not see this discussed more at length, is the potential recurving Typhoon which is still an invest but has been given a real boost by equatorial convection and is expected to develop over the next few days. So long as it does so, it looks likely to follow a mid level height pattern that could again recurve the system and help develop a favorable jet orientation for upstream effects by the second week of December. This includes the Aleutian low becoming more amplified, but tighter, and a high latitude block developing to its east over the West Coast of the USA into British Columbia and northward. We will have to see if this comes to fruition.Euro doesn't recurve it though. And it maybe affecting GEFS MJO forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 I'm not sure where some were getting the idea that December was going to be this amazingly snowy month overall. The idea of variance is well-noted in +ENSO onset years, and seasons that feature virtual wire-to-wire cold like 1976 are the exception rather than the rule. The majority of our "good" El Nino years don't feature a favorable pattern for SECS+ events until late December. With that being said, this month should not be a torch on the East Coast, and I continue to like 2003's general distribution in terms of temp departures, with near normal values for our area and a warm Plains/Mid-west. This signature looks reasonable going forward. The NW Asian low continues to be shunted southeastward in the medium range, and thus its effects in terms of lessening the wave activity flux should wear off over the next week. The tropospheric pattern has been and continues to be night and day from 2011, if anyone was wondering. November 2011 foreshadowed our ultimate doom via the persistent one-eyed Cyclops near Alaska. This was not the case this year. A favorable November / less favorable December is quite common in El Nino years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 I'm not sure where some were getting the idea that December was going to be this amazingly snowy month overall. The idea of variance is well-noted in +ENSO onset years, and seasons that feature virtual wire-to-wire cold like 1976 are the exception rather than the rule. The majority of our "good" El Nino years don't feature a favorable pattern for SECS+ events until late December. With that being said, this month should not be a torch on the East Coast, and I continue to like 2003's general distribution in terms of temp departures, with near normal values for our area and a warm Plains/Mid-west. This signature looks reasonable going forward. The NW Asian low continues to be shunted southeastward in the medium range, and thus its effects in terms of lessening the wave activity flux should wear off over the next week. The tropospheric pattern has been and continues to be night and day from 2011, if anyone was wondering. November 2011 foreshadowed our ultimate doom via the persistent one-eyed Cyclops near Alaska. This was not the case this year. A favorable November / less favorable December is quite common in El Nino years. At the same time though people need to be a bit wary we could end up being SOL for all of December there are some people just as overly optimistic as there are pessimistic. There is a chance the euro MJO forecast could be right and if it is, bye bye December most likely. The other is that stratospheric warming while it does often have positive effects eventually for cold and snow does not always do so on this side of the pole, it could end up showing it's impacts over Europe. We saw that in the 11-12 winter when an SSW developed and everyone finally thought we were going to get a pattern change and it occurred over Europe instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 12z euro op is just ugly for snow...no cold air at all in conus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 12z euro op is just ugly for snow...no cold air at all in conus Euro and ensembles have been terrible in the long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 At the same time though people need to be a bit wary we could end up being SOL for all of December there are some people just as overly optimistic as there are pessimistic. There is a chance the euro MJO forecast could be right and if it is, bye bye December most likely. The other is that stratospheric warming while it does often have positive effects eventually for cold and snow does not always do so on this side of the pole, it could end up showing it's impacts over Europe. We saw that in the 11-12 winter when an SSW developed and everyone finally thought we were going to get a pattern change and it occurred over Europe instead. I would say punting until at least mid month is a given at this point. Obviously there is always a rare chance an event could sneak in, but the chances are low. People dont want to hear it, but it just doesn't look good right now. Its tough to spin the outlook,especially for the first half at this point. A bit to early to punt the second half, but we need some help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Didn't it take a while for the AO/NAO to party like it's 1929 and crash last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 one of the analogs I like was 1951...December 1-10 1951 had 60 degree temps eight of the ten days I think...A storm and cold wave hit mid month...it took until March 52 to get above average monthly snowfall...20" fell that year and it had the lowest snowfall total for the set of analogs I like... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 My analogs for this winter are 76-77, 79-80, 03-04 and 12-13. One good winter, two OK winters, one bad winter if you like snowfall. So, suffice to say, no clue how snow will end up. However, general theme was colder but drier than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Another night of guidance looking absolutely awful. The conus is being overrun by pacific air and Canada is being torched. We have tons of work to do to turn this around. I think december is loss for pretty much everyone now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Another night of guidance looking absolutely awful. The conus is being overrun by pacific air and Canada is being torched. We have tons of work to do to turn this around. I think december is loss for pretty much everyone now This week is not a TORCH by any measure .( Prob end up normal ) . It was however painted on the ensembles 10 days ago AS A TORCH . So that`s going down in flames . The day 10 -15 looks warm on the ensembles , but again be careful . Trough into Europe POS PNA . I am not sold .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Another night of guidance looking absolutely awful. The conus is being overrun by pacific air and Canada is being torched. We have tons of work to do to turn this around. I think december is loss for pretty much everyone now Yea for the next two weeks,but making assumptions about patterns 3-4 weeks away is foolish.LR outlooks can change on a dime..look at November..even the first week in December a few weeks ago was supposed to be a torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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