nzucker Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 I think the ECM is washing out the lower heights in the East you should see as a result of the developing +PNA. Euro creates too much of a flat ridge across the entire CONUS. 12z GFS OP at Day 10 is more of the look I'd expect to see with a +PNA/-EPO, split flow, Hudson Bay vortex, and lower heights to the East...the split flow in the southern stream could allow for a snowfall as well: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 The snow total is not always relevant, December 2003 and 48 were both bad patterns but both months were snowy, meanwhile December 89 was great and hardly any snow fell. True but we are debating just numbers - not what type pattern they occured in http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 The snow total is not always relevant, December 2003 and 48 were both bad patterns but both months were snowy, meanwhile December 89 was great and hardly any snow fell. Dec 89 had many threats but none delivered not to mention several painful busts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Dec 89 had many threats but none delivered not to mention several painful bust I remember the Dec 8th 1989 Potential - I was living in Northern Ocean County at the time and we got 4 inches out of that one which brought us up to our normal Decemeber snowfall- I believe the NYC metro got less ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 I remember the Dec 8th 1989 Potential - I was living in Northern Ocean County at the time and we got 4 inches out of that one which brought us up to our normal Decemeber snowfall- I believe the NYC metro got less ? One was like yesterday..I think around the 5-6th..3-6" forecast but got a slushy inch. The 15th was the worst. 4-8" was forecast and the storm came too close causing winds to shift to the east and gave us a driving rainstorm. Then we got the arctic outbreak but had no snow on the ground other than the occasional snow shower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Prognostic Discussions Valid: Dec 02 - 06, 2014 (6-10 Day Outlook) Valid: Dec 04 - 10, 2014 (8-14 Day Outlook) Issued: Nov 26, 2014 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html GEFS spag http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=gefs-spag&area=npac&cycle=20141127%2012%20UTC¶m=200_1176_ht&fourpan=no&imageSize=&ps=area OPC Unified Analysis http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/ Blocking ATM..... on the weak side Zonal PAC Flow thru day 14 Understanding current conditions is the starting point, and the most critical part, of any weather forecast - CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frosty Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Looking at the synoptic models and also the stratosphere forecast charts I think It is fair to say that the recent wave action peaks in about 4 to 5 days before weakening and a regrouping of the vortices. Hopefully the MJO wave will kick start some longer lasting and stronger wave action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 If you punt December very good chance you are punting a good part of January and or February - take a look at the snowfall history in NYC most of the above to much above snowfall winters included above to much above snowfall in December and many of the below normal snowfall winters had below normal or just normal snowfall in December http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html Then the Park is off to a great 77-78 repeat. It too had .02" in Nov with a .04" crappy Dec. But yes vast majorities of crappy Dec lead to at or below normal winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 One was like yesterday..I think around the 5-6th..3-6" forecast but got a slushy inch. The 15th was the worst. 4-8" was forecast and the storm came too close causing winds to shift to the east and gave us a driving rainstorm. Then we got the arctic outbreak but had no snow on the ground other than the occasional snow shower That was one of the most painful busts top five for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 We have to watch for a sneaky SWFE to develop as one of these arctic highs slides out of here the next 10 days, a well timed disturbance out of the southern branch we may get an overrunning snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Then the Park is off to a great 77-78 repeat. It too had .02" in Nov with a .04" crappy Dec. But yes vast majorities of crappy Dec lead to at or below normal winters. December 1977 had a noreaster around mid month with a sloppy mix...The Giants were playing home and there was much more snow and ice accumulations than where I lived in Brooklyn...NYC recorded 0.4"...There were many trace days reported that month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Look at this link and look at all the below normal Decembers in NYC - below normal is less then 4.8 inches - then get back to me after you do your analysis - punting December in NYC in my book is anything less then 4.8 inches -I think some of the problem is some folks around here think 12 inches is the norm - they need to get back down to earth....... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html Perhaps the long-term median (3.0) is a more appropriate value for whether its "punted" or not. Or the 1981-2010 median of 2.35". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 The weather does not have a memory...all evidence to the contrary nonwithstanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 - EPO + PNA with a trough into Europe "should" look more like the Canadian . The Euro looks good from the Rockies west and I think its just washing the potential EC trough out in the LR . The Euro takes the MJO into 7 8 1 by mid month .That spells a trough on the EC in the LR . Hopefully this jives with the mid month ideas of getting back in business . The Euro looks very close to hooking those heights over the top as well . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 The weather does not have a memory...all evidence to the contrary nonwithstanding. A somewhat false statement considering that soil moisture is an effective medium range forecast tool- as per CPC. What is soil moisture and its self reinforcing tendency than a sort of 'storm track memory'? Personally, the recurring Low track over the Great Lakes towards James Bay/Ungava has me considering the potential of a continuing +NAO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxLover Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 December 1977 had a noreaster around mid month with a sloppy mix...The Giants were playing home and there was much more snow and ice accumulations than where I lived in Brooklyn...NYC recorded 0.4"...There were many trace days reported that month... 77-78 My analog year I'm comparing with for this Winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 The 00Z Euro was one of the colder runs yet...it contintually is trying beyond Day 6-7 to modify the pattern and ultimately ends up backing off time after time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 The 00Z Euro was one of the colder runs yet...it contintually is trying beyond Day 6-7 to modify the pattern and ultimately ends up backing off time after time. The warm up is def shunted. It now looks to b only a week long . I do think with the MJO ripping thru 4 5 6 should pop a ridge in the east for week 2. But Yeh week 1 which starting Monday overall is prob normal . And by the weekend of week 2 the trough prob works it's way back. The 2 week torch that some thought my end up being closer to 1 week I like when I see the pattern shrink warn ups . Hope it holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 December 1977 had a noreaster around mid month with a sloppy mix...The Giants were playing home and there was much more snow and ice accumulations than where I lived in Brooklyn...NYC recorded 0.4"...There were many trace days reported that month... Was that the December 4th 1977 home game against St. Louis or the December 18th, 1977 home game against Chicago ? http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nyg/1977.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 NCEP Ensemble 850 mb Temperature Anomaly Probability ( > 1 Std. Dev. ) http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850std1_ussm_animation.html ENS MEAN MSLP/500-1000 THK http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/mslpnhanim.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Euro weeklies for Week 4 show Aleutian low and -EPO with positive height anomalies over North Pole and Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 GFS keeps advertising a change to colder and stormier weather by mid month. Hope it holds up. The PNA isn't the problem moving forward. It's the NAO. PNA is forecasted to rise while the NAO is forecasted to stay positive. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Hang in there for the mid month return . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 NCEP- Posted the Euro 2x . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Those mjo plots look tasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Was that the December 4th 1977 home game against St. Louis or the December 18th, 1977 home game against Chicago ? http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nyg/1977.htm December 18th...it was a disappointing storm...the first snowfall was on January 1st I think...January 10th, 1978 to February 7th NYC got six major storms...First one around the 10th gave us heavy rain with an inch of snow with winds at the end of it...January 13th saw a storm that gave us 3" of snow that changed to sleet and freezing rain...January 17th had a storm that put down 1-2" before changing to rain...January 19-20th had a snowstorm that ended as sleet and rain...13-15" fell...around January 26th we got a major rain storm washing away most of the snow on the ground...February 6-7th saw the blizzard of 78...All six storms had at least 1" of precipitation...That was the stormiest winter period on record... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Euro weeklies for Week 4 show Aleutian low and -EPO with positive height anomalies over North Pole and Greenland. Yeah that's a nice pattern. The highest anamolies in that chart are in the Scandinavia region so it's a good east-based -NAO, but with all of the other features of the pattern, that's still a good look. I do think we get to a nice wintry pattern mid month, though we may have to wait a little longer for a mega west based NAO block. But it's always nice to see these big torches muted in the 11-15 day. Gives more confidence of a mid-month return to winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 GREAT POSTS BLUE WAVE a couple of points. FIRST... IF/ when the MJO swings around to PHASE 7 then 8 that does happen until DEC 11-12. From there it will take a few days before we see the impact on the pattern in the CONUS so we are talking DEC 15 or so. SECOND... I think the euro mean day 10 is close to being right . To me its been clear for a while that 1st half of DEC 2014 was always going to be mild or at least not cold. This has been reflected in my winter forecast. THIRD.... IF you re- consider the favorable -EPO/ +PNA/-NAO map posted above the STRONGEST anomalies is NOT a classic negative NAO at all.. it almost UK Scandinavian ridge. That is NOT that great for eastern US xxxxxx.jpg FOURTH... NOV 2014 was kind of freak or Black swan event triggered by the 924 mb Low in the Bering sea which was a EXTREME end of the bell curve event. Four arctic outbreaks... in NOV? While I agree somewhat on Nuri.....however, the pattern was the genesis of Nuri...Nuri was not the genesis of the pattern. Nuri just put the pattern on steriods but it was the pattern that led to recurve which already would've produced trough & cold. Nuri just amplified it. My point is you cannot just dismiss NOV because of Nuri. Mistake if you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 A warm up is inevitable as MJO moves through phases 4-6. And like DT said, even if MJO enters phase 7 around DEC11 give it a few days for changes in CONUS...so DEC 15-18 looks to be good. With that said....12z GFS 500 mb anomalies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 FWIW, 0z & 12z GFS are slowly moving toward agreement with the GGEM & NAEFS ensembles on a brief cold shot around DEC 8-11 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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