Rising confidence in favorable period for snow Dec 15 - Jan 1

[Doorman]

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbT850SeaNormInd1.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2seasonal.shtml

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20141210.201501.gif

 

 

 

http://youtu.be/G_Sy6oiJbEk?t=3m27s

 

 

[bluewave]

Looking ahead to our snow potential for January and February, we want to see the

AO start making good drops for NYC 6"+ snowstorm potential. All the major snowstorms

during January and February in El Nino years since 1980 featured a strong drop from

days to a month before the eventual storm. Steep AO drops even a month before

can set a 50/50 pattern in motion that keeps the cold air locked in over the Northeast.

 

NYC JF 6"+ snowstorms at NYC during El Ninos since 1980 and the lowest AO in previous days

to month before event:

 

2-11-83.......-3.105

1-22-87.......-2.682

2-4-95.........-1.443

2-16-03.......-3.575

1-22-05.......-2.621

2-24-05........-3.221

2-10+26-10..-5.205

[REDMK6GLI]

Looking ahead to our snow potential for January and February, we want to see the

AO start making good drops for NYC 6"+ snowstorm potential. All the major snowstorms

during January and February in El Nino years since 1980 featured a strong drop from

days to a month before the eventual storm. Steep AO drops even a month before

can set a 50/50 pattern in motion that keeps the cold air locked in over the Northeast.

NYC JF 6"+ snowstorms at NYC during El Ninos since 1980 and the lowest AO in previous days

to month before event:

2-11-83.......-3.105

1-22-87.......-2.682

2-4-95.........-1.443

2-16-03.......-3.575

1-22-05.......-2.621

2-24-05........-3.221

2-10+26-10..-5.205

-AO and also -NAO is something we will need to see more help from entering the JFM time period to make this winter produce like some have said it wil, i still feel we'll see atleast one high end KU this winter. Not saying an 03' or 96' but something that will be quite large once a strong -AO/NAO becomes established

However, i am taking december first. Starting next week with the parade of storms in the south the +PNA can still make many on the EC happy if the timing works out even with a marginal air mass.

[bluewave]

-AO and also -NAO is something we will need to see more help from entering the JFM time period to make this winter produce like some have said it wil, i still feel we'll see atleast one high end KU this winter. Not saying an 03' or 96' but something that will be quite large once a strong -AO/NAO becomes established

However, i am taking december first. Starting next week with the parade of storms in the south the +PNA can still make many on the EC happy if the timing works out even with a marginal air mass.

 

Since we didn't start this December with the strong blocking patterns of 2002 and 2009, maybe we can get something

more modest later this month. We'll see if we can beat the 3 best snow events of the other El Nino Decembers 

since 80 coming in at 3.0", 2.4", and 2.6" for NYC.

[REDMK6GLI]

Since we didn't start this December with the strong blocking patterns of 2002 and 2009, maybe we can get something

more modest later this month. We'll see if we can beat the 2 best snow events of the other El Nino Decembers

since 80 coming in at 3.0" and 2.4" for NYC.

With all the potential from next week on, threading the needle and going into january with a nice measurable snow event over 0" YTD is not unreasonable.

Timed right we can pull off a 3-6" event even to the coast

[Yanksfan]

Since we didn't start this December with the strong blocking patterns of 2002 and 2009, maybe we can get something

more modest later this month. We'll see if we can beat the 3 best snow events of the other El Nino Decembers 

since 80 coming in at 3.0", 2.4", and 2.6" for NYC.

I'll take these nickel and dime events for now. It all ultimately adds up just the same. Once we have an established +PNA/-AO/-NAO, we can start looking for our big kahuna! 

[REDMK6GLI]

I'll take these nickel and dime events for now. It all ultimately adds up just the same. Once we have an established +PNA/-AO/-NAO, we can start looking for our big kahuna!

IMO it will only be a matter of time post new years that we can get that and the -EPO established. Weak El Nino and those teleconnectors timed right IMO we can get that big ticket KU, until the nickel and dime events will all we will have to settle for. Still adds to the seasonal tally either way though like you said

[NorthShoreWx]

That said, lets not pretend that there haven't been plenty of winters where hardly anyone had a clue what was going to happen, when you look back at their forecasts.  That's happened several times in the last few years, I think.

 This is the norm.

[Yanksfan]

IMO it will only be a matter of time post new years that we can get that and the -EPO established. Weak El Nino and those teleconnectors timed right IMO we can get that big ticket KU, until the nickel and dime events will all we will have to settle for. Still adds to the seasonal tally either way though like you said

Once the pattern takes hold, with the sub tropical jet already on steroids, I'd be surprised we don't see an 18+ event later this season. Weather is fickle though, so we'll see.

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

Once the pattern takes hold, with the sub tropical jet already on steroids, I'd be surprised we don't see an 18+ event later this season. Weather is fickle though, so we'll see.

Obviously the 18+ is a gutsy call in any pattern, though, if it's going to happen any winter, it would happy with a -NAO later this winter.

[REDMK6GLI]

Obviously the 18+ is a gutsy call in any pattern, though, if it's going to happen any winter, it would happy with a -NAO later this winter.

Yes when we get a strong, better yet well placed -NAO and -AO in tandem with the +PNA, the Weak El Nino pineapple express. This winter would be one that could deliver an upper KU type storm. The PNA/NAO both cooperating would also help the storm on the EC not just be a quick mover like we have been relegated to many times the past several years.

Thats one thing we have lacked is storm that lasts a solid 24-36 hours like 96' & 03' (using them purely duration comparison)

[NEG NAO]

Yes when we get a strong, better yet well placed -NAO and -AO in tandem with the +PNA, the Weak El Nino pineapple express. This winter would be one that could deliver an upper KU type storm. The PNA/NAO both cooperating would also help the storm on the EC not just be a quick mover like we have been relegated to many times the past several years.

Thats one thing we have lacked is storm that lasts a solid 24-36 hours like 96' & 03' (using them purely duration comparison)

I am seeing the first signal of a DEFINITE pattern change the MJO is either in phase 7,8 or the COD as of today waiting for the update since the 9th

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

 

What is interesting is if you go back in the archives at this site to December 1995 the MJO on December 12 was in phase 7 - lets see how close todays update will place it........

[alwaysready126]

I am seeing the first signal of a DEFINITE pattern change the MJO is either in phase 7,8 or the COD as of today waiting for the update since the 9th

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

 

What is interesting is if you go back in the archives at this site to December 1995 the MJO on December 12 was in phase 7 - lets see how close todays update will place it........

Interesting that these forecasts are so different.  

[REDMK6GLI]

I am seeing the first signal of a DEFINITE pattern change the MJO is either in phase 7,8 or the COD as of today waiting for the update since the 9th

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

What is interesting is if you go back in the archives at this site to December 1995 the MJO on December 12 was in phase 7 - lets see how close todays update will place it........

Im excited to see when new years starts and we start or do have all established teleconnectors working together. When the true STJ (pineapple express) gets going im confident we can see a true high end KU post new years.

[NEG NAO]

Im excited to see when new years starts and we start or do have all established teleconnectors working together. When the true STJ (pineapple express) gets going im confident we can see a true high end KU post new years.

Without all due respect I think you are throwing the KU theory for winter 2014/2015  around irresponsibly - lets first get a true snowfall here of over an inch or 2  then IF a favorable pattern develops to support your thesis then we MIGHT be able to mention that golden phrase KU which there have only been 36 of in recorded history of over 140 years at NYC

[PB GFI]

I still look to the 20th as the start of what should be a pattern change towards a more wintry one.

A nice Pos PNA a trough in the GOA and one into Europe should result in a deep trough Christmas week on the EC .

I am sure we will see a few bridge jumpers this week as this current pattern has not yielded any snow In their backyard to date .

[NEG NAO]

I still look to the 20th as the start of what should be a pattern change towards a more wintry one.

A nice Pos PNA a trough in the GOA and one into Europe should result in a deep trough Christmas week on the EC .

I am sure we will see a few bridge jumpers this week as this current pattern has not yielded any snow In their backyard to date .

if you look at the big picture this can be considered a very normal December around the metro in regards to temperature and snowfall SO FAR BUT total  precip has been well above normal so far - which is a good thing if it continues - people around here need to curb their enthusiasm for KU events and 50 - 60 inch plus winters and get real ! or move to Buffalo or Syracuse Also I do think snowfall  will end up well above normal this season because of the El Nino and -EPO developing along with a high amount of early  snow cover to the north  I predicted 47 inches in the contest - BUT to try and predict a KU is impossible long range IMO - last winter  NYC had close to 60 inches without a KU event.

 

http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.cdus41.NYC.KOKX.html

[PB GFI]

if you look at the big picture this can be considered a very normal December around the metro in regards to temperature and snowfall SO FAR BUT total precip has been well above normal so far - which is a good thing if it continues - people around here need to curb their enthusiasm for KU events and 50 - 60 inch plus winters and get real ! or move to Buffalo or Syracuse

http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.cdus41.NYC.KOKX.html

30 is normal at knyc . Growing up in the 80 s I would have killed for that . Guys don't know what bad stretches are.

Many think you should be a foot deep in powder on Dec 1 and it should just roll through.

[KEITH L.I]

30 is normal at knyc . Growing up in the 80 s I would have killed for that . Guys don't know what bad stretches are.

Many think you should be a foot deep in powder on Dec 1 and it should just roll through.

It hardly ever snowed in December in the 70's 80's and most of the 90's..A big reminder...the last 10 years or so is not climo for this area..I guess many on this board didn't go through the lean years

[easternsnowman]

Maybe the 2004-05 analog is in play. it was also a weak el nino and a good snowfall year.

[coastalplainsnowman]

It hardly ever snowed in December in the 70's 80's and most of the 90's..A big reminder...the last 10 years or so is not climo for this area..I guess many on this board didn't go through the lean years

 

Amen.  I forget what station on LI that the numbers I looked at were from, but between 1973 and 1999 there were something like a total of 6 storms that yielded more than 10 inches (I know, I'm sure north shore central Suffolk had more.)   I still remember watching TWC and if it showed LI in 3-6 that was grounds for total excitement, nevermind 6-12 and forget about 12+.

[USCG RS]

Amen. I forget what station on LI that the numbers I looked at were from, but between 1973 and 1999 there were something like a total of 6 storms that yielded more than 10 inches (I know, I'm sure north shore central Suffolk had more.) I still remember watching TWC and if it showed LI in 3-6 that was grounds for total excitement, nevermind 6-12 and forget about 12+.

This is actually something I have been pondering for quite some time; the last ten years, have they been so anomalous or is this just a cycle that the area goes through? Furthermore, if this is a ten year run of anomalies, has there been any research as to why?

[White Gorilla]

Of course there's no guarantee about anything especially snows even if the pattern turns favorable. Last March and even late February were good examples of that.

However a better pattern makes it more likely we get something with blocking greatly increasing the odds. With blocking probably coming in January moreso than December it's not out of the question our first solid storm comes in January rather than December.

You were right!

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

You were right!

Please don't encourage him.

[White Gorilla]

Please don't encourage him.

lol....

[SleetStormNJ]

It hardly ever snowed in December in the 70's 80's and most of the 90's..A big reminder...the last 10 years or so is not climo for this area..I guess many on this board didn't go through the lean years

This keeps getting restated ad nauseum but does one not consider that the climo might change over time due to a variety of factors?

[famartin]

Might. Or could just be cycles or randomness.

[Guest Pamela]

There is a Law of Averages...any anomalously wet or cold or hot or snowy period is eventually going to be followed up by numbers more in line with the average or less than average; the latter being Nature's way of compensating for its previous excesses. 

 

The only exception to this would be if there were some genuine shift in the global or mesoscale climate paradigm underway; an occurrence which is not common but can never be utterly discounted...particularly because most of our current climate record must be charitably characterized as brief and not comprehensive

 

The 70's, 80's and 90's....with a few noteworthy exceptions...were terribly snowless in these parts...and Nature...the splendid accountant that She is...then sent forth the last 14 years or so to balance the books, so to speak. 

 

A baseball manager once made a good analogy:  "You can be hitting .300 at the All Star Break...but if you are a .240 hitter...that's what you will be batting come October."

[danstorm]

There is a Law of Averages...any anomalously wet or cold or hot or snowy period is eventually going to be followed up by numbers more in line with the average or less than average; the latter being Nature's way of compensating for its previous excesses.

The only exception to this would be if there were some genuine shift in the global or mesoscale climate paradigm underway; an occurrence which is not common but can never be utterly discounted...particularly because most of our current climate record must be charitably characterized as brief and not comprehensive

The 70's, 80's and 90's....with a few noteworthy exceptions...were terribly snowless in these parts...and Nature...the splendid accountant that She is...then sent forth the last 14 years or so to balance the books, so to speak.

A baseball manager once made a good analogy: "You can be hitting .300 at the All Star Break...but if you are a .240 hitter...that's what you will be batting come October."

You just plagiarized yourself!

I'd argue the aforementioned batter would be hitting .270 come October...

[Guest Pamela]

You just plagiarized yourself!

 

 

Its a compilation of long forgotten (over 72 hours) commentary that nobody (save 4 u) paid any attention to; much to their detriment...

 

<semi-demure look...with a wistful resignation>

 

At least I made no meaningful references to Norfolk, CT.