Rising confidence in favorable period for snow Dec 15 - Jan 1

[SnoSki14]

Agreed, no true arctic air source....yet. However some of the largest snows come with marginal temps.

It does like stormy that holiday week though so there's always the slight chance things are favorable enough for some snow.

[NEG NAO]

It does like stormy that holiday week though so there's always the slight chance things are favorable enough for some snow.

there are no signs of a significant pattern change - the 10 day Euro  still shows a mild pattern

- once the Euro starts showing something then we can start talking about cold and snow again

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014120912/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.png

[dbc]

there are no signs of a significant pattern change - the 10 day Euro  still shows a mild pattern

- once the Euro starts showing something then we can start talking about cold and snow again

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014120912/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.png

This is nonsensical. Just because the Euro doesn't show it on it's latest run means there'll be no chance of a pattern change in the next 10 days or no snow threats to follow? There are larger scale features that will determine when the pattern change will occur and if the Euro happens to not show it on it's latest run that doesn't mean squat. Maybe on it's next run it'll show a pattern change in just 5 days. It's silliness to base complex long range forecasting on the most recent 10 day prog on a single model run of the Euro. There are plenty folks here in just this thread and on the main board explaining why the pattern change is likely in short order even if it is contrary to the current day 10 prog on the Euro. Perhaps take into account other models and long term monthly models and correlating ensembles where applicable (including the Euro's),  ENSO state, PDO state, EPO state, MJO state, QBO state and maybe the current state of the Stratosphere and the sun.

 

SMH.

[NEG NAO]

This is nonsensical. Just because the Euro doesn't show it on it's latest run means there'll be no chance of a pattern change in the next 10 days or no snow threats to follow? There are larger scale features that will determine when the pattern change will occur and if the Euro happens to not show it on it's latest run that doesn't mean squat. Maybe on it's next run it'll show a pattern change in just 5 days. It's silliness to base complex long range forecasting on the most recent 10 day prog on a single model run of the Euro. There are plenty folks here in just this thread and on the main board explaining why the pattern change is likey in short order even if it is contrary to the current day 10 prog on the Euro. Perhaps take into account other models and long term monthly models and correlating ensembles where applicable (including the Euro's),  ENSO state, PDO state, EPO state, MJO state, QBO state and maybe the current state of the Stratosphere and the sun.

 

SMH.

Euro is the best model in the longer range - GFS always puts too much emphasis on the northern stream - like I said once already when  the Euro shows something then we can talk cold and snow ! We have seen this before where pattern changes keep getting delayed ........

[IsentropicLift]

Euro is the best model in the longer range - GFS always puts too much emphasis on the northern stream - like I said once the Euro shows something then we can talk cold and snow ! We have seen this before where pattern changes keep getting delayed ........

The Euro just busted horribly 12 hours out, I wouldn't be putting all of my eggs in one basket.

[NEG NAO]

The Euro just busted horribly 12 hours out, I wouldn't be putting all of my eggs in one basket.

I wasn't talking 12 hours out - plus the Euro has a much better verification score then the GFS- you are saying the GFS is better in the longer range  ????

[dbc]

Euro is the best model in the longer range - GFS always puts too much emphasis on the northern stream - like I said once already when  the Euro shows something then we can talk cold and snow ! We have seen this before where pattern changes keep getting delayed ........

 

 

The Euro just busted horribly 12 hours out, I wouldn't be putting all of my eggs in one basket.

 

Got to agree with IL on this. NEG NAO, closing your mind to the point that you are just hugging one model all the time is going to get you into trouble when trying to determine what to expect in the long range. My initial reply stands. You need to factor in many things, not just model output, as far as trying to determine what to expect in the longer range. Just hugging models isn't going to get you very far and will limit what you can learn meteorologically. There's a wealth of information on this board that explores the many indices we need to consider. Those who are providing analysis on the different indices gives you a bit better reference than just looking at model output.

[PB GFI]

KNYC splits 45 - 34

 

Next 9 days on the 12z Euro OP . Day 10 the low is 28 - but Friday`s highs do not come thru until 0z

 

Wed   39- 37

Thrs   36- 31

Frid    39 - 26

Sat     41- 27

Sun    40 - 26

Mon   42- 26

Tues  43- 27

Wed  34 -23

Thrs  40 - 26

 

No Snow , and I guess that`s what people care about but it`s not warm  .

[EasternLI]

Euro is the best model in the longer range - GFS always puts too much emphasis on the northern stream - like I said once already when  the Euro shows something then we can talk cold and snow ! We have seen this before where pattern changes keep getting delayed ........

 

But it's not being delayed though, folks have been saying around the 20th, for the beginning of it. Here's 12Z EURO ENS. First, hour 00, second Day 10(19th). Notice the GOA low in a more favorable position, and ridging starting to build into the arctic.

 

 

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

Euro is the best model in the longer range - GFS always puts too much emphasis on the northern stream - like I said once already when the Euro shows something then we can talk cold and snow ! We have seen this before where pattern changes keep getting delayed ........

so until the euro shows something as of a pattern change than we can talk about it??? I thought this was a weather forum where we can discuss weather and not be told what can and can not be discussed your very condicenting when you speak learn some people skills

[SnoSki14]

Heights may look above normal but surface cold could still equal near normal or even below normal in temperature department.

Temps should stay below 50 even during the mildest stretch but if you're hoping for snow then things become a lot more dicey. The pattern change will likely become delayed for a few days though the most important changes are always upstream.

It's those changes that will ultimately start the process of surface changes. The 20th could be the start but the end result may take another week or so.

[alwaysready126]

I can understand why he is saying what he is saying.  It's not like it was just one run.  I understand there is more to the big picture so let me try to take a gander at it:

 

-Possibly second lowest snow cover since 2003

-NAO is forecasted to be neutral (at best)

-AO is forecasted to be neutral (at best)

-Marginally cool air to the North (Canada)

 

Not to mention that the GFS has a knack for showing fantasy storms/ patterns that never come to fruition.

 

I'm not saying there will be no pattern change because there just may be.  However, I do not think it will be on the 20th or in December at all.  Late January, I'm thinking that the pattern will have slowly flipped to favorable conditions.  I think this is more reasonable.

 

Edit:  If the Euro was showing a pattern flip but the GFS wasn't, everyone would be jumping on the "GFS is out to lunch" bandwagon.

[REDMK6GLI]

I can understand why he is saying what he is saying.  It's not like it was just one run.  I understand there is more to the big picture so let me try to take a gander at it:

 

-Possibly second lowest snow cover since 2003

-NAO is forecasted to be neutral (at best)

-AO is forecasted to be neutral (at best)

-Marginally cool air to the North (Canada)

 

Not to mention that the GFS has a knack for showing fantasy storms/ patterns that never come to fruition.

 

I'm not saying there will be no pattern change because there just may be.  However, I do not think it will be on the 20th or in December at all.  Late January, I'm thinking that the pattern will have slowly flipped to favorable conditions.  I think this is more reasonable.

 

Edit:  If the Euro was showing a pattern flip but the GFS wasn't, everyone would be jumping on the "GFS is out to lunch" bandwagon.

ummm not late January. this page is awful now. around the 17th-20th we will be seeing the step down pattern into more favorable conditions, almost on cue as john said. late January is just a premature call, in order for that to happen we'd have to look at it changing around the jan. 10-15th time frame? doesn't make sense. Stratospheric warming is also forecasted to start disturbing the PV and also splitting it later this month post 17th-20th and that will aid in kick starting the blocking in the North Atlantic

 

EURO is starting to show more troughs along the EC come the 17th and on and we well have some 50/50 LP's around as well to aid in transient blocking. Furthermore its not like Canada is a furnace, the cold air with a deep storm to the BM can still produce snow to the coast. I would be beyond shocked if NYC-east had to wait till January for there first measurable snowfall. Historically speaking if that happens the winter is in the clunker and that is a VERY big long shot at the moment in my opinion

[Absolute Humidity]

December is right on schedule. The idea for December was for it to be slightly below normal; a snow event or two during the 2nd half of the month. Not the first half, the second half. Despite being slightly above avg temp wise, The much anticipated brief 3 - 5 day torch has NOT arrived and likely will not. The STJ is on steroids right now; wavelengths are amplifying now suggesting that the current pattern is only transient and is in fact beginning to change. I'm surprised folks aren't all that excited given once things become a little more favorable, with that STJ and GOA low beginning to retrograde, we'll really only need a 50/50 low or a little blocking to get one of these systems snowing. Once we get true blocking combine with the STJ, the atmosphere is a powder keg waiting to explode. 

[bluewave]

Even the quality of Arctic air over Asia has weakened just like North America

since November. We are really going to have just wait and see what happens

to the Northern Hemispheric cold situation in January. The big EPO shift

really changed up the pattern.

 

Please shut the refrigerator door next time

 

 

 

 

[alwaysready126]

ummm not late January. this page is awful now. around the 17th-20th we will be seeing the step down pattern into more favorable conditions, almost on cue as john said. late January is just a bonehead response, in order for that to happen we'd have to look at it changing around the jan. 10-15th time frame? doesn't make sense. Stratospheric warming is also forecasted to start disturbing the PV and also splitting it later this month post 17th-20th and that will aid in kick starting the blocking in the North Atlantic

 

EURO is starting to show more troughs along the EC come the 17th and on and we well have some 50/50 LP's around as well to aid in transient blocking. Furthermore its not like Canada is a furnace, the cold air with a deep storm to the BM can still produce snow to the coast. I would be beyond shocked if NYC-east had to wait till January for there first measurable snowfall. Historically speaking if that happens the winter is in the clunker and that is a VERY big long shot at the moment in my opinion

You are a class act.  Thanks for calling me a bonehead.

[Absolute Humidity]

Even the quality of Arctic air over Asia has weakened just like North America

since November. We are really going to have just wait and see what happens

to the Northern Hemispheric cold situation in January. The big EPO shift

really changed up the pattern.

 

Please shut the refrigerator door next time

 

NAA.gif

 

NAB.gif

 

AA.gif

 

AB.gif

Agreed, the raging + EPO has toasted Santa Claus to a degree, no pun intended, but it can recover relatively quickly. The eastern half of Canada is still quite cold, even colder than before, This is where a nice 50/50 low can do its dirty work to get us cold enough to snow. GIve us a -NAO and we're in business. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Some awful commentary on this page.

Models consistently try to rush in the pattern change. Just because it is delayed a few days doesn't mean changes aren't occurring.

The changes on are models are favorable. Of course its not perfect, how often does a pattern flip on a dime? The step down is beginning, and it may take until maybe new years to really get favorable.

Late Jan? What supports that? I think thats unrealistic. Unless we saw an all out torch modeled, that is way to late IMO

I totally agree with those that say it may take time, it still isn't great. Late Jan is pretty out there though

[REDMK6GLI]

You are a class act.  Thanks for calling me a bonehead.

my apologies I edited it. did not mean to personally insult you just wanted to make some points regarding some of your statements

[bluewave]

Agreed, the raging + EPO has toasted Santa Claus to a degree, no pun intended, but it can recover relatively quickly. The eastern half of Canada is still quite cold, even colder than before, This is where a nice 50/50 low can do its dirty work to get us cold enough to snow. GIve us a -NAO and we're in business. 

 

The blocking centered on the the Northern part of Alaska surpassed the previous record Novembers of 1985 and 1996. 

So once we lost that the +EPO took over due to the December El Nino signal. We'll probably have a better idea how long

it will take to get back to a more favorable pattern later this month.

 

The king of all November Northern Alaska blocks with help from Nuri ET 924 MB record turbo boost

 

[forkyfork]

Even the quality of Arctic air over Asia has weakened just like North America

since November. We are really going to have just wait and see what happens

to the Northern Hemispheric cold situation in January. The big EPO shift

really changed up the pattern.

Please shut the refrigerator door next time

NAA.gif

NAB.gif

AA.gif

AB.gif

not good for extreme cold when the strongest PV lobe is over ocean

[WeatherFox]

Here are the remaining forecasts for once inch of snow accumulation at Central Park, NY. If it were to occur tomorrow we would have three winners

[SnoSki14]

It's doubtful NYC gets any accumulation tomorrow but maybe a couple tenths are possible though still below the inch.

Those last 3 candidates are looking good right now and I still have a feeling Jbg is taking this one or close to it.

We'd be in trouble if it took until late January for a pattern change unless first 3 weeks of February are crushing, which is unlikely. I do fear a 06/07 change though is possible as a worst case but I see no reason as of now not to believe the pattern should be good Jan and Feb.

[REDMK6GLI]

It's doubtful NYC gets any accumulation tomorrow but maybe a couple tenths are possible though still below the inch.

Those last 3 candidates are looking good right now and I still have a feeling Jbg is taking this one or close to it.

IF and its a big IF Jbg wins with Jan. 15th I would be downright shocked and would write off rest of the winter at that point. Historically if NYC waits that long for their first inch of snowfall it ends up being below average snows for the winter season. with a Weak El Nino west based starting to show itself starting next week with some parade of storms from the southern stream I doubt we get much past Christmas for the snowfall for NYC-east

[Guest Pamela]

It's doubtful NYC gets any accumulation tomorrow but maybe a couple tenths are possible though still below the inch.

Those last 3 candidates are looking good right now and I still have a feeling Jbg is taking this one or close to it.

We'd be in trouble if it took until late January for a pattern change unless first 3 weeks of February are crushing, which is unlikely. I do fear a 06/07 change though is possible as a worst case but I see no reason as of now not to believe the pattern should be good Jan and Feb.

 

What change in 2006-07?  Do you mean the one on MLK day when it turned cold for the balance of the winter...but with little snowfall?

[MJO812]

Gfs shows a wintry pattern moving forward

[CIK62]

Gfs shows a wintry pattern moving forward

Explain please.    Basically what I have seen this month is that the northeast at least has escaped (and continues to) the above normal  temps.   the official 6-10 & 8-14 day outlook had for the whole country (and still does).   Two more close calls 12/20-21 and XMAS itself might break up pattern, but officially it is suppose to be dry around here then.   We need to know which of the following will be the most important controllers for us    1.  weak west based El Nino   2.   favorable MJO phase but amplitude unknown    3.  A favorable SSW to bust up the PV but does it migrate down vertically far enough to really do anything.

[PB GFI]

Explain please.    Basically what I have seen this month is that the northeast at least has escaped (and continues to) the above normal  temps.   the official 6-10 & 8-14 day outlook had for the whole country (and still does).   Two more close calls 12/20-21 and XMAS itself might break up pattern, but officially it is suppose to be dry around here then.   We need to know which of the following will be the most important controllers for us    1.  weak west based El Nino   2.   favorable MJO phase but amplitude unknown    3.  A favorable SSW to bust up the PV but does it migrate down far enough to really do anything.

KNYC

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 40.7   ( Actual number is 40.65 and will be adjusted at months end )

DPTR FM NORMAL:  -0.3  That`s normal and never the torch that was advertised .    And that includes Dec 1 splits  of  65  42 otherwise the last 8 days are no where AN.  I posted the next 9 days surface temps yesterday off the 12z run back a few  .

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=okx

 

 

Don`t worry about the whole country , you live in the NE and the EUROPEAN continues to push troughs through the lakes . It`s only Dec 10 and the pattern looks to progress over the next 10 days with 2 storms showing up on the European ensembles . Do they turn the corner ? To early to tell but the European is just cold enough going into Christmas week .

[Dsnowx53]

there are no signs of a significant pattern change - the 10 day Euro  still shows a mild pattern

- once the Euro starts showing something then we can start talking about cold and snow again

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014120912/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.png

 

 

And now last night's 10-day Euro is showing a setup for a major snowstorm.

 

You can't make any definitive statements based on one OP run of a model, since OP runs are always going to go back and forth in the long range. This is why we have ensemble guidance. It's best to look at ensemble guidance and the background state of the atmosphere, as well as to put the guidance into the context of analogs to see if the changes that are occurring make sense. It's also important to pick up on the general signals that have more certainty (like a GOA low becoming an Aleutian low in a strong PAC jet pattern) rather than to nit-pick the verbatim details for the east coast, since those verbatim details are always going to bounce around; the general idea that the pattern will be changing is not bouncing around. 

 

Cold air will still be stale, but if we can time a transient rex/omega block with a disturbance together, we can pull something off. And with how many disturbances we'll have with the active PAC Jet, there is an okay chance we could go 1/3 or 1/4 and get a snow event before the end of the month. 

[Great Snow 1717]

KNYC

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 40.7   ( Actual number is 40.65 and will be adjusted at months end )

DPTR FM NORMAL:  -0.3  That`s normal and never the torch that was advertised .    And that includes Dec 1 splits  of  65  42 otherwise the last 8 days are no where AN.  I posted the next 9 days surface temps yesterday off the 12z run back a few  .

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=okx

 

 

Don`t worry about the whole country , you live in the NE and the EUROPEAN continues to push troughs through the lakes . It`s only Dec 10 and the pattern looks to progress over the next 10 days with 2 storms showing up on the European ensembles . Do they turn the corner ? To early to tell but the European is just cold enough going into Christmas week .

I think the entire country has to be factored into the equation. At this point in time we need a major pattern shift for any of the forecasts for a cold and snowy winter to verify. I have disliked the overall pattern since late Aug.