Rising confidence in favorable period for snow Dec 15 - Jan 1

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

Hopefully the gfs op is wrong or we'd be seeing a rainy cutter on Xmas eve. Unfortunately I think a white Christmas is only a pipe dream this year.

every post from you is doom and gloom calm down and relax you're focusing on something 300 plus hours away that won't verify. Just relax and take one storm at a time. We have a hell of a storm coming in tomorrow granted it won't be snow but I just enjoy the fact that there is something to track, that's just me.

[SnoSki14]

every post from you is doom and gloom calm down and relax you're focusing on something 300 plus hours away that won't verify. Just relax and take one storm at a time. We have a hell of a storm coming in tomorrow granted it won't be snow but I just enjoy the fact that there is something to track, that's just me.

Actually my outlook is very positive right now but my thinking is it occurs a bit later than some believe. I'm very hopeful for Jan and Feb and I've been saying how all this storminess can only be a good thing. I love any good storm rain or snow. Ok that's enough of that no need to derail things further.

[REDMK6GLI]

The GFS has a bias to sometimes want to dump troughs or cold pushes too far west into the US beyond day 8-10....I think its doing that here to an extent...the Nino and PNA argues for no SE ridge and the trof to tend to be mostly on the East Coast.

Agreed. IMO you could bench the GFS during an El Nino winter. The ECMWF is stellar during El Nino winters being that has exceptional performance in southern stream derived systems. Sandy 2012, february's blizzard to name a couple. The GFS has been downright terrible and the PGFS may just be slightly better but nothing noteworthy, just get to see the systemic errors in High Res graphics

[Stormlover74]

Actually my outlook is very positive right now but my thinking is it occurs a bit later than some believe. I'm very hopeful for Jan and Feb and I've been saying how all this storminess can only be a good thing. I love any good storm rain or snow. Ok that's enough of that no need to derail things further.

Then why did you say ....'Hopefully the gfs op is wrong or we'd be seeing a rainy cutter on Xmas eve'

[SnoSki14]

Then why did you say ....'Hopefully the gfs op is wrong or we'd be seeing a rainy cutter on Xmas eve'

Because no one wants a rainstorm during Xmas, it could rain any other time but then.

[REDMK6GLI]

Because no one wants a rainstorm during Xmas, it could rain any other time but then.

Do yourself one BIG favor. Dont reference the GFS this winter past 96 hours, its gonna blow chunks. The ECMWF will school the GFS this year as well as the GGEM,UKMET that do well as well. The GFS had one of the worst verification scores for the turkey day storm and this one as well it looks like.

[SnoSki14]

The gfs OP can certainly be awful at times. The ensembles are better to look at but the ECWMF is not perfect either. However I'll pick it over the gfs any day if I have to even past day 5.

[KEITH L.I]

Hopefully the gfs op is wrong or we'd be seeing a rainy cutter on Xmas eve. Unfortunately I think a white Christmas is only a pipe dream this year.

Ok..lets get this straight about the GFS OP..last week at this time they had temps this week in the 50's..is that happening?..NO..4 days it had today's forecast as sunny with a high in the 40's..look outside..and your looking a 300 hour GFS?

[REDMK6GLI]

Have to watch that bowling ball rolling across the south around the 17-18th time frame and see if that rounds the bend up the EC. The ECMWF has thar feature again but punts it right OTS. Feel confident that wont be the last we see of that threat rolling into the christmas home stretch

[PB GFI]

A few things of note on today Euro ensembles .

1. The OP today as well as the ensembles around day 10 take this system off the east coast however the Control seems to think this one turns up .

 

2. The ensembles seem to the like something around the 21 st off OBX then NE .

 

3. Finally we get out to day 15 . Look at the trough in the GOA another  into Europe ( you should see a deeper trough  on the EC )  and the blocking getting up towards Greenland with a POS PNA and the jet cutting underneath .

 

I don`t know if this upcoming pattern produces once past day 10 but I will shocked if it did not.  I posted what HM said this morning .

 

You are going to see an active storm track cutting underneath and the result is going to be one of these get us .( hopefully in time for Christmas )  The models may have a tough time as to which one to key on .  But I like where the Euro is taking the pattern .

[REDMK6GLI]

I agree paul and although we wont have the coldest air to deal with should one of these systems decide to make a run up the EC we should be able to have more frozen towards our part of the woods. Exciting times ahead both before and after christmas as the El Nino is now starting to throw some bowling balls across the south, will it STRIKE or will it go into the GUTTER?

[SnoSki14]

Ok..lets get this straight about the GFS OP..last week at this time they had temps this week in the 50's..is that happening?..NO..4 days it had today's forecast as sunny with a high in the 40's..look outside..and your looking a 300 hour GFS?

They didn't have this storm in the modeling, which threw a curve ball on the warm up. It'll still warm up though once the low moves away late this week but not to the extent it showed last week. 

[NEG NAO]

every post from you is doom and gloom calm down and relax you're focusing on something 300 plus hours away that won't verify. Just relax and take one storm at a time. We have a hell of a storm coming in tomorrow granted it won't be snow but I just enjoy the fact that there is something to track, that's just me.

he predicted a historic 70 inches in the snowfall contest - no doom and gloom IMO

[SnoSki14]

I think a lot of folks on here are gonna start to get pissed off when we get deeper into this month and we are still getting rainstorms. The pattern is going to stay active but it's still going to take a few weeks for a snow pattern to develop. Until then expect a few more rain events but it'll be worth it in the end.

[REDMK6GLI]

I think a lot of folks on here are gonna start to get pissed off when we get deeper into this month and we are still getting rainstorms. The pattern is going to stay active but it's still going to take a few weeks for a snow pattern to develop. Until then expect a few more rain events but it'll be worth it in the end.

Stop just stop posting. Starting the 17th we will have bowling balls rolling across the south and one of them will round the bend. The cold air would be there for the taking with these storms. A few weeks and i assume you mean three would take us almost to new years. I would be downright shocked that NYC even me doesnt see atleast a 4" event until then with the potential heading into christmas.

We have the +PNA, we'll have the -AO developing and the -EPO as well. The -NAO forecasted to take hold end of this month and especially january. We will also have some 50/50 LP's around as well and we've all seen the magic a well placed 50/50 LP can do for snow on the EC the past few years....

[NaoPos]

I think a lot of folks on here are gonna start to get pissed off when we get deeper into this month and we are still getting rainstorms. The pattern is going to stay active but it's still going to take a few weeks for a snow pattern to develop. Until then expect a few more rain events but it'll be worth it in the end.

every single one of your posts has your personal opinion (which is fine), without any facts to back it up (not fine).

[Neblizzard]

I think a lot of folks on here are gonna start to get pissed off when we get deeper into this month and we are still getting rainstorms. The pattern is going to stay active but it's still going to take a few weeks for a snow pattern to develop. Until then expect a few more rain events but it'll be worth it in the end.

Where is your meteorological reasoning for this? It's still early December and the ensembles are showing a +PNA -EPO just in time for the holidays. It's a gradual transition, you need to be patient.

[Doorman]

 

Where is the COLD???

 

Not even a subtle cold anomaly pattern thru the 23rd???

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850std1_ussm_animation.html

 

[PB GFI]

 

Where is the COLD???

 

Not even a subtle cold anomaly pattern thru the 23rd???

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850std1_ussm_animation.html

 

ens-850.gif

Where is the WARMTH ???

 

2 days of Normal and then the trough is back in the east on the 18th . You will not find the cold on the GFS , at least thast`s the last place I would  look  past 3 days for weather anyways .

I don`t want to insult the model I will just say

It has not caught this pattern of Below  normal since Dec 1 . It has missed 3 troughs through the lakes in the last 10 days and I think is just struggling in the pattern in it`s LR

[NEXtreme]

every single one of your posts has your personal opinion (which is fine), without any facts to back it up (not fine).

I'm surprised he didnt use the word "torch"...

[NEXtreme]

Where is the WARMTH ???

2 days of Normal and then the trough is back in the east on the 18th . You will not find the cold on the GFS , at least thast`s the last place I would look past 3 days for weather anyways .

I don't understand why anybody would be looking at the GFS past 3 days too. It's horrendous!!!

[Doorman]

Where is the WARMTH ???

 

2 days of Normal and then the trough is back in the east on the 18th . You will not find the cold on the GFS , at least thast`s the last place I would  look  past 3 days for weather anyways .

PG

I think you should e-mail your sentiments to the NCEP!!!!  

Cause that guidance be golden in my book

and yes it will update.....till then I am not convinced

 

The smartest cats in here have a snow agenda -imho-

be it hidden or in your face 

dm

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

 

 

 

[PB GFI]

PG

I think you should e-mail your sentiments to the NCEP then !!!!  

Cause that guidance be golden in my book

and yes it will update.....till then I am not convinced

 

 

dm

They don`t need me to they are working hard with there own upgrade . I think NCEPs products are deep and well done ( and as inserted I am never one to insult the model .)  However it`s been too warm in this pattern it has missed  the cold shots in it . ( KNYC will not finish above N from Dec 1- 15 ) . So why would I look for it`s pattern recognition going forward .

 

Hard not to go Euro- UKMET . No shame in being 1- 2 in the skill scores . That said I am sure NCEPs new GFS  will give the globals a run for their money . Would love nothing more than to have the American model beat everyone elses .

[PB GFI]

PG

I think you should e-mail your sentiments to the NCEP!!!!  

Cause that guidance be golden in my book

and yes it will update.....till then I am not convinced

 

The smartest cats in here have a snow agenda -imho-

be it hidden or in your face 

dm

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

 

814temp.new.gif

All due respect mate I have seen this movie before .

 

Pamela

Posted 26 November 2014 - 09:24 PM

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The CPC's composite 6 to 10 & 8 to 14 day outlooks look warm & wet in the eastern U.S.  That would cover the period from about December 2nd to December 10th. 

 

 

My apologizes Pam , just to make a point

No agenda ,The CPC guys are smarter than I but the cold has won out , there has been no torch and there is not going to be.

 

[Doorman]

They don`t need me to they are working hard with there own upgrade . I think NCEPs products are deep and well done ( and as inserted I am never one to insult the model .)  However it`s been too warm in this pattern it has missed  the cold shots in it . ( KNYC will not finish above N from Dec 1- 15 ) . So why would I look for it`s pattern recognition going forward .

 

Hard not to go Euro- UKMET . No shame in being 1- 2 in the skill scores . That said I am sure NCEPs new GFS  will give the globals a run for their money . Would love nothing more than to have the American model beat everyone elses .

PB

Your a real gentleman

I was just poking some fun, and I see you understood this  +

 

you are well respected by many here

that includes myself

tommy e

 

The CPC map is a coast to coast 3,000 mile red zone

We will rain in all the Major hubs on the east coast thru Friday

what has won out????

[bluewave]

PB

Your a real gentleman

I was just poking some fun, and I see you understood this  +

 

you are well respected here

and that includes myself

tommy e

 

You are correct in that all the Arctic cold has shifted over to Siberia with the +EPO pattern.

The below normal days we are seeing in this pattern are a result of all the troughing over

the Northeast. But it's stale cold which generally favors interior sections for

the best snows like we are seeing this week. Sometimes it can be frustratingly 

slow to cool Canada off again once it gets flooded with Pacific air. So a first step

would be getting a more -EPO late in the month and then wait for the Arctic

air over over Siberia to make the cross polar trip.

 

[PB GFI]

You are correct in that all the Arctic cold has shifted over to Siberia with the +EPO pattern.

The below normal days we are seeing in this pattern are a result of all the troughing over

the Northeast. But it's stale cold which generally favors interior sections for

the best snows like we are seeing this week. Sometimes it can be frustratingly 

slow to cool Canada off again once it gets flooded with Pacific air. So a first step

would be getting a more -EPO late in the month and then wait for the Arctic

air over over Siberia to make the cross polar trip after.

 

gfs-ens_T2ma5d_nhem_2.png

Can you pull the CONUS Dec 02 map up ? I would like to see how close this month is .

[bluewave]

Can you pull the CONUS Dec 02 map up ? I would like to see how close this month is .

 

Temperature wise it was running a little colder than this month so far. December 2002 finished

with a -1.5 temperature departure and 11.0" snow at NYC. The key was the strong -AO-NAO

pattern which kept a 50/50 low in place for our two big snow events that month. What little cold air

there was was held in place for the early month snowstorm and the strong -AO forced the low

underneath without riding too far north. Even though the Christmas storm started warm with

heavy rains, the 50/50 kept enough cold air nearby so closing off low could tap it. We can

do great with just slightly below normal normal temps on -AO/-NAO pattern. But a similar

temperature pattern without the -AO/-NAO will not be able to produce two 6" December

snow events around NYC and Long Island. The more amplified storms will ride too close

to NYC and the weaker ones get suppressed. So we get stuck trying to catch a small

or maybe moderate event in between. The -AO-NAO pattern can produce for us even

with stale cold.

[SnoSki14]

every single one of your posts has your personal opinion (which is fine), without any facts to back it up (not fine).

Bluewave and Doorman essentially prove why it's going to take a long time for things to become favorable again. Canada will be torched next week and it'll take time for it to cool down again. It'll also take time to gradually shut off the pacific influence to where it'll aid instead of hurt us.

 

This is why I know it's a gradual transition and why I said it'll take a few weeks before things get going and I can already see some getting irritable because they don't want to hear that. No one wants to wait maybe another 3 weeks for a favorable pattern for snow to develop but that's probably what's going to happen.

 

We have the NCEP showing widespread above normal anomalies for the CONUS the week prior to the holidays and that takes time to change as well. By January I believe we'll be rocking and since we're probably going to be on the outskirts of the major warm anomalies this month we could finish just slightly above normal this month.

[SnoSki14]

I also know I'm gonna get flack for this but the 18z gfs op LR is a good example actually of what I believe will happen in theory not as depicted. It shows 2 storms taking a decent track to our south and east but there's no cold around at all so they're rainstorms. They look like classic Nino storms with a good track/no cold that's very typical without a -NAO. Eventually though if that pattern continues and blocking develops as well as the -EPO that should bring the cold back which all Mets believe will especially in January then we'll get our snowstorms. 

 

And yes I know they are long range storms and I shouldn't point them out but I'm just using them as an example.