uncle W Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 indices for major snowstorms during el nino winters...11 of the 13 had a negative ao...8 of the 13 had a negative nao...11 of 13 had a positive pna...7 of 13 had all three where we want them... date......amount....... ao......nao......pna 02/16/58.....8.0"....-3.960...-0.355...+1.188..... 03/21/58...11.8"....-2.432...-1.065...+0.349... 01/13/64...12.5"....-2.063...-1.787...+0.289... 02/10/69...15.3"....-3.148..+0.044....-0.080... 01/20/78...13.6"....-0.250..+0.253...+0.374... 02/06/78...17.7"....-5.026...-0.093...+1.188... 02/11/83...17.6"....-1.973...-0.567...+0.845... 02/04/95...10.8"...+2.238..+0.437...+1.604... 02/16/03...19.8"...+0.438..+0.836...+0.639... 01/23/05...13.8"....-2.947..+0.204...+1.380... 12/19/09...10.9"....-4.651...-1.833...+0.549... 02/10/10...10.0"....-4.459...-1.027...+0.622... 02/26/10...20.9"....-3.230...-0.262....-0.221 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 There seems to be a growing trend of getting snow events here the last 5 years without a -NAO, it may just be dumb luck but some of the events have been decent sized as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 There seems to be a growing trend of getting snow events here the last 5 years without a -NAO, it may just be dumb luck but some of the events have been decent sized as well. Agreed, some of our bigger storms have actually been produced by a transient blocking regime that is brief. However we all know for the big kahuna's 03', 96' and 93' we need that -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Agreed, some of our bigger storms have actually been produced by a transient blocking regime that is brief. However we all know for the big kahuna's 03', 96' and 93' we need that -NAO. The AO may be more important, uncle's post sort of shows that and DT has posted some stats before showing it's a near impossibility for a wall to wall MA to NNE major snow without a negative AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The GFS and GGEM ensemble means. -EPO/+PNA/-AO patterns developing Christmas week. First steps down El Nino will be more central-pacific based, with the polar vortex at least more disturbed again in late December and January, This supports more planetary wave perturbations over the Atlantic side, causing more -NAO patterns to emerge by January: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I added the MJO for the storms available indices for major snowstorms during el nino winters...11 of the 13 had a negative ao...8 of the 13 had a negative nao...11 of 13 had a positive pna...7 of 13 had all three where we want them... date......amount....... ao......nao......pna MJO 02/16/58.....8.0"....-3.960...-0.355...+1.188..... 03/21/58...11.8"....-2.432...-1.065...+0.349... 01/13/64...12.5"....-2.063...-1.787...+0.289... 02/10/69...15.3"....-3.148..+0.044....-0.080... 01/20/78...13.6"....-0.250..+0.253...+0.374... 4 02/06/78...17.7"....-5.026...-0.093...+1.188... 7 02/11/83...17.6"....-1.973...-0.567...+0.845... COD 02/04/95...10.8"...+2.238..+0.437...+1.604... COD 02/16/03...19.8"...+0.438..+0.836...+0.639... COD 01/23/05...13.8"....-2.947..+0.204...+1.380... COD 12/19/09...10.9"....-4.651...-1.833...+0.549... 7 02/10/10...10.0"....-4.459...-1.027...+0.622... 8 02/26/10...20.9"....-3.230...-0.262....-0.221 COD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I added the MJO for the storms available the circle of death really isn't... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I added the MJO for the storms available 2/4/95 sticks out like a sore thumb in those stats with that robust positive AO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 the circle of death really isn't... what is it then ? oh I get it now - it is the circle of life for snowstorms - FWIW today we are in phase 6 and I would wager that by the time the pattern changes we will be in either 7,8 or COD http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 2/4/95 sticks out like a sore thumb in those stats with that robust positive AO... one of the few that changed to rain at least near the coast...March 1993 super storm had a plus ao/nao and a negative pna...it cahnged to rain also...92-93 was a mei el nino... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 one of the few that changed to rain at least near the coast...March 1993 super storm had a plus ao/nao and a negative pna...it cahnged to rain also...92-93 was a mei el nino... 92-93 is classified on many sources as a La Nada, it was a very weak Niño at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 92-93 is classified on many sources as a La Nada, it was a very weak Niño at best for those who use the mei for enso strength 1992-93 was almost moderate... 1993 .7 .998 .979 1.39 1.992 1.499 1.096 1.006 .987 1.06 .826 .559 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 GFS says hey why not, christmas snowstorm. LR pattern looks great around that time, all the models are beginning to flip to the winter pattern near the 20th or so. But 00z GFS looks like its going to bring the low straight from the GOM up the EC. Lol, sucks it won't verify as that. Awesome though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 GFS says hey why not, christmas snowstorm. LR pattern looks great around that time, all the models are beginning to flip to the winter pattern near the 20th or so. But 00z GFS looks like its going to bring the low straight from the GOM up the EC. Lol, sucks it won't verify as that. Awesome though. It's a real ugly pattern still but there are plenty of brief transient 50/50 low features popping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 It's a real ugly pattern still but there are plenty of brief transient 50/50 low features popping up. There's a lot of work needed to fix this pattern which is why I think it'll take longer than most believe. I'm taking the gfs op for what it is and it'll probably trend more favorably as we get closer to Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The AO may be more important, uncle's post sort of shows that and DT has posted some stats before showing it's a near impossibility for a wall to wall MA to NNE major snow without a negative AO.Correct me if I'm wrong but hasn't there been quote a bit of research being done lately about how the AO and NAO may not actually be two separate entities or anomalies at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 There's a lot of work needed to fix this pattern which is why I think it'll take longer than most believe. I'm taking the gfs op for what it is and it'll probably trend more favorably as we get closer to Xmas. GFS is always the last to the party - I like the way these patterns have unfolded so far over the last month and the future potential pattern towards the end of the month - we got a taste of winter precip for Thanksgiving and now it looks like there is potential for Christmas - not to often you have a white Thanksgiving and a white Christmas in the same year in the immediate NYC metro.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Correct me if I'm wrong but hasn't there been quote a bit of research being done lately about how the AO and NAO may not actually be two separate entities or anomalies at all? Of course they aren't. This is a good example of why blackboxing indices without an underlying understanding of atmospheric science is a fools errand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 There's a lot of work needed to fix this pattern which is why I think it'll take longer than most believe. I'm taking the gfs op for what it is and it'll probably trend more favorably as we get closer to Xmas. Another torch this week! 5 days ago forecast was for highs in the low 50's today with lows in the 40's...ouch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Euro monthlies are out. Go right to the better winter ideas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 The Euro is now showing a 70mb split (and other levels as well) by Day 5 and another split occurring by Day 9-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 The Euro is now showing a 70mb split (and other levels as well) by Day 5 and another split occurring by Day 9-10 Telling you john. Little hints keep on popping up for a pretty big trough on the EC down to the GOM christmas week. Im very intrigued by this and although canada may not be fully chilled again, a 50/50 block may just do the trick with a decent arctic airmass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Nice splitting of polar vortex at 50mb, 70mb, 100mb, in 10-12 days on 12z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Hopefully the gfs op is wrong or we'd be seeing a rainy cutter on Xmas eve. Unfortunately I think a white Christmas is only a pipe dream this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Hopefully the gfs op is wrong or we'd be seeing a rainy cutter on Xmas eve. Unfortunately I think a white Christmas is only a pipe dream this year. Why you looking at operational models 300 hours out? It's a gradual shift and that's what the ensembles are for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Hopefully the gfs op is wrong or we'd be seeing a rainy cutter on Xmas eve. Unfortunately I think a white Christmas is only a pipe dream this year. Based on A day 16 op run. I can't even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Hopefully the gfs op is wrong or we'd be seeing a rainy cutter on Xmas eve. Unfortunately I think a white Christmas is only a pipe dream this year. HM this morning as per MA With the arrival of the insane Pacific Jet this week, it will kick off a parade of southern stream lows--one after another. Models, especially ensemble means, will average this out in the day 10-15 period and make it look like some "3-wave configuration" etc. But in reality, a classic PNA, split flow will develop and models will screw-up this separation (especially the GFS). So, expect continued correcting from a smoother, longer wavelength to a shorter wavelength/split stream from the day 10-15 means to day 6-10 means. There is NO torch coming and eventually these monster southern lows will pay off... Relax man . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Hopefully the gfs op is wrong or we'd be seeing a rainy cutter on Xmas eve. Unfortunately I think a white Christmas is only a pipe dream this year. There hints of rex block over Canada at that time, with the polar vortex splitting. I wouldn't worry about it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Why you looking at operational models 300 hours out? It's a gradual shift and that's what the ensembles are for. I know I wasn't implying it to be remotely correct just an observation. Also good to hear what HM has to say because I agree that things do look promising the end of this month into January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Hopefully the gfs op is wrong or we'd be seeing a rainy cutter on Xmas eve. Unfortunately I think a white Christmas is only a pipe dream this year. The GFS has a bias to sometimes want to dump troughs or cold pushes too far west into the US beyond day 8-10....I think its doing that here to an extent...the Nino and PNA argues for no SE ridge and the trof to tend to be mostly on the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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