mayjawintastawm Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Guaranteed it will snow a lot here this weekend... because I head to Ohio tomorrow on business, trying to get back home through Chicago Sat evening. So, guaranteed. Probably 4 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 GFS continues the story, with about 48 hours of snow, adding up to around 0.8" to 1.1" of liquid equivalent for our area. The QPF of 0.5" to 1.0" to the Colorado/Kansas border is generally a strong signal that the urban corridor will overperform. 700mb looks pretty good with fresh cold air and northeast wind at 10kts+ for some periods. 700mb won't be downsloping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Euro 24 hour QPF maps... 12z Friday - 12z Saturday 12z Saturday - 12z Sunday 12z Sunday - 12z Monday Some of the Friday into Saturday precip may be a mix of rain/sleet/snow, but still, big QPF signals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bheberto Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 +1 @huronicane, EURO looks solid. Personally not all that concerned with mixing along the Front Range anyway. Should be fine for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bheberto Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I think we have to watch speed issues, though NAO looking good. I suspect NAM is too fast, but would like to see it and Canadian come around a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Drool... We still haven't nailed down our plans yet, but are now thinking of staying in Leadville Thursday night through Saturday and skiing Copper Friday and then Saturday morning before trying to beat the traffic through the tunnel to get back to Ned before all hell breaks loose on the roads. I'm still concerned that we'll have issues getting back early on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bheberto Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 12z GFS QPF through 00z 25th, 18z coming in now: http://www.weather5280.com/models/gfs/18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Afternoon AFD from BOU: BIG CHANGES ON THE WAY FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS WEEKEND AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TAKES AIM ONCOLORADO. ON FRIDAY...A SHORT WAVE OVER THE GREAT BASINSTRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OVER UTAH...AND CARVES OUT A LARGE UPPERLEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES BY SATURDAYMORNING. MODELS ALL SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERNCOLORADO BY LATE SATURDAY...WITH SNOW DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT. THEGFS...ECMWF AND NAM ALL SHOW PLENTY OF QG LIFT OVER ALL OF THE CWAFROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS LIFT COMBINED WITH DEEPUPSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP ENHANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA.THIS LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THEREGION...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER THE FRONTRANGE FOOTHILLS...URBAN CORRIDOR AND PALMER DIVIDE FROM AROUNDMIDNIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH NOON ON SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...UPSLOPE FLOWAND QG LIFT DECREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHIFTS INTO SOUTHERNCOLORADO AND FRONTOGENIC LIFT WEAKENS. THIS MAY RESULT IN THEFOCUS OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH...WITH THESOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FORACCUMULATING SNOW ON SUNDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TOTALSNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER ONE FOOT ACROSS MUCH OF FRONT RANGEFOOTHILLS...ADJACENT PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ITIS STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO GET CAUGHT UP IN THE DETAILS...HOWEVERTHIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THEREGION AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Looks like 18Z GFS may have pushed back the heaviest snowfall time a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Looks like 18Z GFS may have pushed back the heaviest snowfall time a bit. According to InstantWeatherMaps, it's a prolonged 1/2"/hour snowfall throughout the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Looks like both the GFS and NAM are now calling for the really heavy snow to mainly fall Saturday into Saturday night. Eldora is gonna be fun Sunday morning, though quite cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 19, 2015 Author Share Posted February 19, 2015 This will be a situation where we won't have a closed low in the southwest, but still get a fairly generous amount of snow on the Front Range. We'll have a long-duration moist flow from the west, a non-closed 500 mb low to our west, and cold air locked in, and more cold air in the northern Plains. Our max snow rates should come when the 500mb vort max is in northwest Nevada. (06z Sunday) when the 700mb temps of -15C to -20C will be advancing toward us from Wyoming. Note: the GFS/ECMWF show snow for us on the 26th-27th (hour 168-192) with a shortwave over the northern Rockies. If you look at the 240-hr total QPF from the GFS, it has 0.6" to 2.2" over Colorado (2.2 for high elevations, 1.2+ for the cities). This combination of events should be very helpful for the southern mountains, which are falling below 80% of snow water equivalent. Generically, you might think the cities could get 12-20" for the week. NRCS West-Wide Snow Water Equivalent: http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/gis/images/west_swepctnormal_update.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 NWS Boulder snow forecast. This is from this morning. This seems to be at the high end of the forecast. ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM MSTSUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM SATURDAYTO 5 PM MST SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* TIMING...PERIODS OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...7 TO 15 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...HEAVIEST CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frontranger8 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Have already met the warning amounts here. Got 8-9" last night as a band stalled over the area for a few hours. If the rest of the storm goes as predicted, could easily end up with over 15". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Oh sheet. We've got sleet and snow pellets. (In Boulder) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 I saw the Denver area, particularly Westminster, got a lot of snow overnight. The bands of snow looked small, looking back to about 2:00AM or 3:00AM, but covered the Denver area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 The people in the Lakes/OV forum (as well as others) are using sl**t for sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frontranger8 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I saw the Denver area, particularly Westminster, got a lot of snow overnight. The bands of snow looked small, looking back to about 2:00AM or 3:00AM, but covered the Denver area Yeah, I live right on the edge of Westminster in north Arvada. Driving a couple miles south of my house, they only got about 3-4". But there's reports of a foot or more already in parts of Westminster/Broomfield. The roads are in great shape right now. But I'm sure that will change later this afternoon/evening. Moderate to strong radar echoes are slowly enveloping the whole metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
castlerockwx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Dumping snow in Castle Rock. Roads have gotten pretty bad in a hurry. Up to 4.5". Most of which has fallen in the last two hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 Snow picked up here. We went from wet roads and 1.5-2" on the grass to 1" of snow on pavement and 3" on the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frontranger8 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Heavy snow starting up again here. Those bands sagging down from the north mean business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The people in the Lakes/OV forum (as well as others) are using sl**t for sleet. I never liked that. Enjoy the weather that's happening, don't cry because there's sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 Radar image from just after the heavy band shifted south out of Denver. Perhaps there was some erroneous hurricane-force wind observation from DEN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 It's been gusty, but not 75 knots gusty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
castlerockwx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 13" and countng, 3.5 miles West of Castle Rock. Light snow continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 I got 7.2" around here. We have very little snow falling right now. I measured 6.1" in the evening hours, and 1.1" since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Perhaps an inch more here... 7" or so before 10 PM last night and an inch after. I wasn't around when it started so couldn't get a clean estimate. Centennial, about 200 feet higher, had 9.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I was at 8" this morning, will have to check again shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 pic of heavy snow yesterday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 The ECMWF has a trough in the West in the 8-10 day averages. I expect some snow on Wednesday night, and I think there's a chance of a decent storm for Saturday/Sunday (again.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.