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Mountain West Discussion


Chinook

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The persistence of the western ridge/eastern trough pattern we see now is pretty incredible, as is the magnitude of the weather anomalies it's producing on both coasts. I can't recall having such a stuck pattern (really for a year and a half, maybe more) ever. Other than the middle of last year, when we got into the moisture action for a couple months, it's been more or less the same. Any analogs to this that anyone can remember?

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Fort Collins had a short rain shower in the early morning hours- the grass was wet, not snowy. The models show decent trough energy Sunday-Monday, with increasing QPF in WY/CO on Monday, 00z.  Sunday-Wednesday will be quite a cooldown from recent temperatures. There have been some hints of a storm on the 16th of 17th on the GFS/ GGEM for a few days.

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00z ECMWF (with QPF) shows a pretty big hit for Denver on the 16th-17th

 

Euro is definitely wetter than the GFS for this storm early next week, but I do agree that the potential for a nice, quick hit is there.  Looking at the longer range, both the Euro and GFS have been hinting at another system moving through the weekend of the 21st.  We desperately need this pattern change.

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The GFS barely shows 0.3-0.4" of QPF for the mountains with these two short-lived snow systems. That is not a lot. As is mentioned below, 3-5" for the foothills in a relatively localized area is pretty weak.

 

 

SETTING THE STAGE FOR WHAT LOOKS LIKE SEVERAL HOURS OF FALLING TEMPS...GUSTY
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND FROZEN PCPN. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE FRONT RANGE WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEM WITH THE COMBINATION OF MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT PROVIDED BY THE PASSING JET. THIS SETUP WOULD FAVOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO THE WEST...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF DENVER WHERE UPWARDS OF
3-5 INCHES OF SNOW MAY PILE UP BY MONDAY EVENING

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Ugh this winter is depressing... We were planning to head to Crested Butte next weekend, but are now toying with the idea of just going to the Utah desert instead. The models are suggesting MAYBE something will move in toward the end of next week, so we'll hold off on changing our plans until we find out for sure. 

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We got about 5" here, maybe more due to melting from the ground up- was at work and not able to do a decent measurement. Ground is warm! Feels like March. Yesterday before it clouded over, went for a run around Cherry Creek lake: iceout was a week ago, and bald eagles, meadowlarks and redwing blackbirds are back. We shall see where we go from here...

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The 6z GFS shows about 12" for all cities the Front Range over a fairly long period, since the upper trough sits west of us for so long. I expect plenty to change over the next few days.

 

Last night's Euro run

 

Just to prevent confusion, the GFS map Chinook showed was just storm #1 (Sat-Mon), while the ECMWF snow map from huronicane includes storms 1 and 2 (mid to late next week).  Interestingly, there is pretty good agreement for storm #2 as well for this far out. 

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Just to prevent confusion, the GFS map Chinook showed was just storm #1 (Sat-Mon), while the ECMWF snow map from huronicane includes storms 1 and 2 (mid to late next week).  Interestingly, there is pretty good agreement for storm #2 as well for this far out. 

 

Correct. Map for just storm 1:

 

post-384-0-10597500-1424196736_thumb.jpg

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We definitely got over 12" in Ned from this most recent storm... Finally had a great day at Eldora yesterday. My wife and I have a dilemma trying to figure out what to do this coming weekend. Our original plan was to go ski Crested Butte on Friday-Saturday, but they haven't gotten snow in a while and it is looking like this storm won't really start hitting them until Saturday, so we'd miss most of the fresh snow. We were also toying with the idea of going to the Utah desert instead, but now it is looking like the drive back on Sunday would be terrible. First world problems, I guess. 

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