icebreaker5221 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The 13-km GFS ought to be more accurate for mountain precipitation, just basically due to grid size and the grid size of the modeled mountains. Yeah definitely! Should really help with elevation-dependent snowfall. Should also help a lot with temps in inversion or CAD scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 Here's a look at the big picture in terms of snow liquid equivalent. Seems that CO and UT have done ok. The Sierras, Pac NW and high desert SW (think Flagstaff) have all performed terribly so far. Overall a good year for WY and MT, with not too many big storms but many steady light snows associated with frontal passages if I recall correctly. The Cascades and Olympics have been too warm for some of their large events, leading to low snowpack. Perhaps more rainfall flowed into the reservoirs and perhaps river flooding was a bigger issue. On the other hand, some basins of Montana has been up to 130% of normal SWE in recent days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Dear GFS, Please be on to something. Your friend, Kevin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 There seems to be some uncertainty in snowfall for the Colorado Springs-Pueblo area for the next storm (Tomorrow/Wednesday.) It's not too much of a concern for the Denver area, I don't think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 If you want to listen to Ginger Zee, there's going to be 4-8 feet of snow in New Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 1 ft snowstorms for the New Mexico plains aren't too likely, in the grand scheme of things. These areas might be shocked by the 6-12" of snow and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Heavy snow in SE Colorado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
castlerockwx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Ended up with a storm total of 5.5". Had some melt off in the early afternoon, followed by some very heavy bands right around 5PM that made the roads a mess again. I'll be in Seattle for two week, so I'm sure you guys will get at least one good storm while I'm gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 there were some decent snow totals around the Denver foothills and Colorado Springs. It looks like Colorado Springs got hit with 4-9", and they had snow all day yesterday. I think the Pikes Peak area and the Wet Mountains got a lot. It looks like we could see 60-65 degrees Monday with relatively light downslope winds. This a drier-than-normal winter so far. Fort Collins snow total is about 15". We should have up to 28" by the end of January, but we won't, with this heat wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 All I can say is- I am just so jealous. I think they get more shovelable snow in Georgia than here recently. 000FXUS61 KBOX 261756AFDBOXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA1256 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015.SYNOPSIS...A HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTOTUESDAY NIGHT...TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING.DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BUTLOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT ANDFRIDAY. VERY COLD AIR LIKELY FOLLOWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 And it's funny to see the NWS forecasters get all amped up... From the evening BOX AFD, written (I think) by Dick Vitale: LOTS OF OFFSHORE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY INDICATIVE THAT THIS STORM IS GETTINGBEEFY/INTENSIFYING. ITS BOMBOGENESIS BABY! And further on in the same AFD:CONSIDER ANY AND ALL POSSIBILITIES NO MATTER WHAT YOU THINK THE OUTCOMES MAY BE. Hmmm... any and all possibilities? Maybe a tornado? Plane crash? Asteroid? Zombie apocalypse? Yeah. that's it... consider a zombie apocalypse. Do they have watches and warnings for those? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 The models are beginning to pick up a messy storm for our area on Saturday. 1000-500 thicknesses are pretty high. No further comment until I see something that I want to talk about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 Fort Collins-CSU most likely broke record highs yesterday and today. I believe that we broke the monthly record. Looking at NOWDATA on the NWS web site, the January highest temperature for Fort Collins is listed as 73. It was in the month of January 1996. We got to 75 yesterday. I think 75 is the highest temperature in any city that I have lived in, in the entire climatology, for January. Edit: The GFS analyzed 850mb temperature at the Front Range was 3 standard deviations above normal. We have pretty high standard deviations, too http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I think 75 is the highest temperature in any city that I have lived in, in the entire climatology, for January. Actually, me too. I've been to Florida a couple times in January for a few days, and I don't think it got to 75 then either where I was. Meanwhile back where my family lives they got 31 inches of snow in about 20 hours. Cold enough that it was actually not hard to shovel/snowblow, comparatively- though 31 inches of anything is hard to get rid of. They have off from school/work tomorrow, time to play! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 This southwestern storm system should produce 4"+ for New Mexico, Colorado, and Utah mountains. It is a weak setup for snow at Denver, with temps around 32 if it even snows on Saturday. Darn. I will go more than a month without 1" of snow at my backyard, if it doesn't snow 1" before Feb 3rd. The last 1" in Fort Collins city limits was Jan. 11th-12th. The last 1" in my backyard was Jan. 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Wow, it is really dry up there. At least we got 3" last week with the wave as it moved south. If it wasn't for Christmas week and the week after, we'd be doing really poorly with snow. I looked at the SFO climate data last night and they've had a whopping 0.00" since Christmas Eve. Good thing they had 10+ inches of rain the 23 days before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 There are some decent 2" - 5" snow amounts in western Nebraska right now. It could have been ours if the southwestern upper low had worked out differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Saw an article today in the Denver Post that mentioned January was the least snowy statewide since at least 1986. I looked all over for any sign that this might change and all I found was indications of the western ridge strengthening, if anything, maybe moving east a little (good for bits of northern CA, not for us). Wow. And my relatives back in MA need to find extensions for their snowblower chutes with another foot of snow coming on Monday. We need a superhero to break this persistent pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Snow reported in Denver/Boulder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 We've probably had at least 3 inches here in Stapleton - no signs of letting up. This will be the least-hyped 3+ inch snow event in my 3 years here in Denver. As late as midnight last night, forecasts and models seemed to be pretty bearish on any real snow accumulations over an inch or two. Chinook, you might be able to explain better what's changed so quickly in the atmosphere to amplify this system - any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Holy crapola. Well there's 6-9" in Boulder and Denver, and a dusting here. Ug. Maybe we'll get some snow in spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Yeah, we got a good 6". Maybe a tad more. Surprise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 2, 2015 Author Share Posted February 2, 2015 We should be able to get some snow with the shortwave on Wednesday. The GFS is a little agressive with QPFs around 0.50 to 0.75" around Cheyenne, which is close to me. 4km NAM model seems to be indicating 20-40" around Steamboat Springs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 3, 2015 Author Share Posted February 3, 2015 Perhaps I never should have sub-titled this thread "winter." It is 60 degrees again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 I got 4.2" today. It was slop on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bheberto Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 For those of you in the greater Denver area, we're hosting a weather meet up on February 26, if you're interesting, follow this link to RSVP and come hang out for a few hours! http://www.weather5280.com/blog/2015/01/27/mark-your-calendars-weather5280-meet-up-february-26-2015/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 It is 70 F with a dewpoint of 7 F here, now. 37 years ago today, the formative weather event of my life started... the great northeast Blizzard of '78. Nothing to compare since, even though the recent blizzard was similar in terms of snow totals. People say there may never be another one in terms of impact either, as the ability to cope with such a storm has grown significantly. Anyone out here remember that one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 7, 2015 Author Share Posted February 7, 2015 80 in La Junta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Pretty windy on the Front Range today, Jeffco reporting winds of 39 gusting to 54. It's a skirt alert sort of day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 official records broken in January at Fort Collins-CSU. I'll have more records to list when I get the climate update for February! 26 January 2015: The maximum temperature of 75F broke the previous record of 71F set in 1982. 27 January 2015: The maximum temperature of 72F broke the previous record of 65F set in 1987 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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