mayjawintastawm Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Yeah, March through early August is when almost all the precip tends to fall. But it does seem like east of the Divide, NM and WY have often had more precip than CO much of the time during the cold seasons the past few years. Warm seasons have been different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 12, 2014 Author Share Posted December 12, 2014 If only this event (Sunday) had a little bit better cold air and dynamics, it could be a nice snow event for Denver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 13, 2014 Author Share Posted December 13, 2014 Minor snowstorm incoming. The models have no love for Fort Collins. There seems to be good agreement on 4-8" for the Colorado mountains, as well as central Wyoming. The NWS expects 8-12" for the high mountains. I think 1-3" of snow in the Denver area. (1-2" shown here on the 4km NAM snow plot.) I expect several areas of flurries to 2" in eastern Colorado. Rain, changing to 4-6" of snow looks possible from North Platte Nebraska, to central South Dakota. There seems to be some uncertainty for Kansas/Nebraska as to exact snow amounts and rain/snow transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 It's been nice and snowy here in Boulder today, but not really accumulating much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
castlerockwx Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Hi all, Just joined up to add a little variety to the Western WX forum. Used to post alot on EasternWX when I lived in the Appalachians of NC. Anyways, have had snow since about 730 am today. Added up to about 2.5 inches so far, still falling steadily. Pattern is looking decent through Christmas, with the GFS and EURO hinting at a Christmas storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 14, 2014 Author Share Posted December 14, 2014 We have had a little drizzle, with even some light rain reported at Erie CO. We haven't had the strong winds, just some gusts around 20mph. It has been 35-41F around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 northeast corner of Colorado had a nice snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 Denver has been +9.5F for this month ---- AVERAGE MONTHLY: 40.0 DPTR FM NORMAL: 9.5 ---- Cheyenne has been +11.0F for this month. heavy snow report from Scottsbluff County --- PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY 925 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0800 AM HEAVY SNOW MCGREW 41.75N 103.42W 12/15/2014 M13.0 INCH SCOTTS BLUFF NE BROADCAST MEDIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted December 16, 2014 Share Posted December 16, 2014 Hi all, Just joined up to add a little variety to the Western WX forum. Used to post alot on EasternWX when I lived in the Appalachians of NC. Anyways, have had snow since about 730 am today. Added up to about 2.5 inches so far, still falling steadily. Pattern is looking decent through Christmas, with the GFS and EURO hinting at a Christmas storm. Welcome! We could use a few on the board in the South Metro area. We had about 2.5 to 3" total, depending on whether you believe the front or the back yard. Started at 7 and ended right on schedule about 4 PM. Would be nice to get some more- finally felt like winter this AM! Where were you in NC? I spent time in the Appalachians there way back in the late 80s-early 90s when I was in school- hiking a lot and lived a month in Blowing Rock. Skied the slush of Beech Mountain and thereabouts several times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 The ECMWF and GFS are showing a big storm for Christmas around the Wyoming/Colorado border. (Shortwave moving out of Idaho and Utah.) The 12z GFS has about 0.5" in 48 hours for my area. Since this storm barely existed on the models yesterday or the day before, I will wait to post more about this. It could be quite wrong. It seems reasonable to think that the 850mb temps in this region will drop to -5C around this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The ECMWF and GFS are showing a big storm for Christmas around the Wyoming/Colorado border. (Shortwave moving out of Idaho and Utah.) The 12z GFS has about 0.5" in 48 hours for my area. Since this storm barely existed on the models yesterday or the day before, I will wait to post more about this. It could be quite wrong. It seems reasonable to think that the 850mb temps in this region will drop to -5C around this time. From BOU: FOR SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY THE MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINEDWITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND DECENT LAPSE RATES FROM 7-8 C/KM WILL PROVIDE FOR A DECENT SNOW MAKER FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE ONLY ISSUE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ARE THE TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO START WILL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE JET WITH TEMPS IN THE 20S AT MOUNTAIN TOP. THIS HAS STILL PROVEN TO PRODUCE DECENT AMOUNTS OF SNOW IN THE PAST BUT COULD ALSO MEAN A MORE SLUSHY WET SNOW THAT WOULD NOT ACCUMULATE AS MUCH OVERNIGHT. FOR MONDAY HOWEVER TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB COOL CONSIDERABLY INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED SNOW FALL. CURRENT MODELS ARE INDICATING 2 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE STORM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...WHICH COULD EQUATE TO POSSIBLE WATCH CRITERIA STARTING SUNDAY SO WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON MODEL DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING COMPONENT ALONG OF 60 TO 70 MPH AT MOUNTAIN TOP MONDAY MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE SNOWFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD CREATE BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR HOLIDAY AND WEEKEND TRAVELERS. THE BIG STORY HOWEVER IS WILL IT SNOW ON CHRISTMAS... CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BRINGING LOTS OF MOISTURE AND COLD AIR. CURRENT QG FORECASTS ARE VERY PROMISING WITH THE EC INDICATING -35 MB/HR OVER NERN COLORADO. DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS WITH DECENT LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING SOME SNOW BUT WILL WAIT ON MENTIONING SNOW AMOUNTS UNTIL LATER MODEL RUNS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
castlerockwx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The ECMWF and GFS are showing a big storm for Christmas around the Wyoming/Colorado border. (Shortwave moving out of Idaho and Utah.) The 12z GFS has about 0.5" in 48 hours for my area. Since this storm barely existed on the models yesterday or the day before, I will wait to post more about this. It could be quite wrong. It seems reasonable to think that the 850mb temps in this region will drop to -5C around this time. GFS and Euro have actually been hinting at this from 10+ days out already. There has been a good amount of an agreement that unsettled weather potentially would be present before,on, or after Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 There are still some pretty good indicators that it will snow on Christmas or the 26th, despite the 18z GFS run, which was way north into Wyoming. Interesting and very informative web page on the Front Range storm of October 1997 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pub/blizzard97/blizzard97.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 Of course all this exciting weather finally shows up just in time for us to head to the East Coast to visit family for the holidays... Oh well, as long as it sticks around on the ground until we get back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 19, 2014 Author Share Posted December 19, 2014 Before we even get to Christmas, there should be 1 to 3" of QPF for the mountains in the northwest. Hmm. 6" for Oregon. Is that right? Perhaps 20" of snow in Colorado, 30" in Idaho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
castlerockwx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Bahumbug for the Front Range. Looks like another dry week ahead with downslope and windy conditions on tap. This winter is making me insane. Maybe Mondays event can over produce for locations that get lucky under convective snow bands. Models have done a 180 for Christmas though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 20, 2014 Author Share Posted December 20, 2014 Tonight's 00z ECMWF is highly encouraging with a temperatures quickly dropping to -8C or -10C with the front and a broad brush 4-8" of snow (just guessing based on the QPF.) The 00z GFS has done something different. It has a fairly dry low pressure that drops from Wyoming to Kansas. (850mb temps drop to -3C or -6C). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
castlerockwx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Tonight's 00z ECMWF is highly encouraging with a temperatures quickly dropping to -8C or -10C with the front and a broad brush 4-8" of snow (just guessing based on the QPF.) The 00z GFS has done something different. It has a fairly dry low pressure that drops from Wyoming to Kansas. (850mb temps drop to -3C or -6C). Very to little model support for the Euro, sadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 20, 2014 Author Share Posted December 20, 2014 I haven't seen snow since Nov. 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Northwest flow forever! Seems like real moisture combined with real widespread upslope lasting longer than a few minutes is a myth for the past few years. Oh yeah, in the winter I mean... forgot about Sept 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Northwest flow forever! Seems like real moisture combined with real widespread upslope lasting longer than a few minutes is a myth for the past few years. Oh yeah, in the winter I mean... forgot about Sept 2013. My first winter living in Central OR has certainly been wetter than I expected. I am happy for all the moisture just wish it was colder for the snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Wind is picking up nicely here in Boulder this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 21, 2014 Author Share Posted December 21, 2014 Now, the Christmas storm has the 500mb shortwave in Montana! Wow. Maybe it will snow next year. Fort Collins is up to 55 degrees, now with some 25-45mph wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 OK, so it's RAINING. In December. Pretty hard too. Here. And it's 42. Sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 We have wet streets. I have never seen the streets fully wet from rain in December through February here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
castlerockwx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 We had a change over to snow at some point last night and ended up with wet 1.5 inches. Long range still looks depressing for snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
castlerockwx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Models trying to increase moisture tonight over the Palmer Divide. May see an advisory hoisted from Castle Rock, south. Also, 12z GFS shows some life in the snow department for Christmas Day and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 We wound up with about 0.2" rain (the ground was happy) followed by about 1" snow, then things froze and got all crunchy. Reminded me of back East. Perfect for animal tracks this AM- saw bunny, raccoon, fox, mouse- deer and coyotes weren't up yet I guess. Lots of relatives coming in on 12/26 and 12/28 so would be nice to have a storm before or after. Might actually cooperate after, I'm skeptical about before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 22, 2014 Author Share Posted December 22, 2014 I saw flakes! 37 days without flakes. You know, most runs of the ECMWF have kept the energy south for Christmas day and shown some (maybe not much) snow for Fort Collins. It is the GFS that has been flippin and floppin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
castlerockwx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I saw flakes! 37 days without flakes. You know, most runs of the ECMWF have kept the energy south for Christmas day and shown some (maybe not much) snow for Fort Collins. It is the GFS that has been flippin and floppin. The Euro has been pretty bad so far for winter events. What does the 12z show though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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