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Mountain West Discussion


Chinook

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I am starting a new thread for the Mountain West. We will use this thread from now to March 1st. Hopefully we will have more post per day, and on things other than grizzly bears.

 

The models are showing 3-10" for some of the larger cities in Montana. Also, the models have shown an area of snow from Casper to Cheyenne to Ft. Morgan CO, on the back side of the Alberta clipper tonight/tomorrow. The GFS has up to 0.5" of QPF (5" of snow) for a narrow area, but I think there will be less than that. RMNP should pick up 5-20" in the next 2-3 days too.

 

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We gusted 51 mph at our house near Nederland today at ~12:30. That is the highest we've recorded since putting up the weather station a couple months ago. 

Cool. Some gusts in the 70s-80s near there reported. My anemometer is working off of 2 cups ever since the 9/29 hailstorm did a job on it. My dog came in later that day with one of the cups in her mouth, and it had a hole in the middle of it. We'll see what Santa brings...

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29 degree temperature drop in less than an hour at KBJC:

 

 

09:46 N 16 15.00 Overcast SCT006 OVC010 25 19     80% 12 NA 29.98 NA 

08:53 NE 13 G 17 40.00 A Few Clouds FEW170 54 10     18% NA NA 29.87 NA

 

Even more impressive at BDU:

 

08:55 NE 18 G 22 10.00 Fair CLR 32 19     60% 21 NA 29.89 NA        

08:35 SE 3 10.00 Fair CLR 57 12     17% NA NA 29.84 NA

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Models and ensembles show western/central Canada being much above normal from Dec 8-17. Obviously this is not a good sign for upcoming snowy weather here. In the meantime, not much will happen here, just mild and dry. I checked the GFS yesterday, and it had zero precipitation for eastern Colorado for 8 days! So, it looks like we will have a dry half-month.

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Well at least there's some chance that we see precipitation before December 20th. Lately, the models show a 4-corners low or shortwave at 8 days in the future (December 14th). Initially, I thought maybe the ECMWF was predicting rain for Fort Collins! as the 850mb temps were high. As I have said before, I haven't seen rain in Fort Collins between Dec. 1st and Feb. 28th. Only a bit of drizzle. Note the 0z ECMWF has this as a weak closed low New Mexico on Sunday Dec. 15th. Oh well, it is a long way out.

 

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New to "this side".  Took a road trip through Rocky Mountain Ntl Park and Yosemite this summer and fell in love with the place.  So, nowadays I sometimes enjoy the point and click noaa forecast for areas i traversed in calmer times.

 

Probably not out of the ordinary, but for this east coaster my mind shut down....

 

Up to 29 inches of snow with 70 MPH winds, gusting to 100

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New to "this side".  Took a road trip through Rocky Mountain Ntl Park and Yosemite this summer and fell in love with the place.  So, nowadays I sometimes enjoy the point and click noaa forecast for areas i traversed in calmer times.

 

Probably not out of the ordinary, but for this east coaster my mind shut down....

 

Up to 29 inches of snow with 70 MPH winds, gusting to 100

Yup, them's the mountains, and those Pacific storms can be brutal. There are reasons they close roads there then. I think Tioga Pass is regularly closed.

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New to "this side".  Took a road trip through Rocky Mountain Ntl Park and Yosemite this summer and fell in love with the place.  So, nowadays I sometimes enjoy the point and click noaa forecast for areas i traversed in calmer times.

 

Probably not out of the ordinary, but for this east coaster my mind shut down....

 

Up to 29 inches of snow with 70 MPH winds, gusting to 100

2-3 ft of snow is pretty unlikely on any given day. Also, areas in California don't normally get wind gusts 80-100mph.

 

 

Colorado Springs/USAF Academy airport. Dew point depression of 62 degrees F

 

Conditions at: KAFF observed 10 December 2014  20:58 UTC Temperature: 14.6°C (58°F) Dewpoint: -20.9°C (-6°F) [RH = 7%]
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2-3 ft of snow is pretty unlikely on any given day. Also, areas in California don't normally get wind gusts 80-100mph.

 

 

Colorado Springs/USAF Academy airport. Dew point depression of 62 degrees F

 

Conditions at: KAFF observed 10 December 2014  20:58 UTC Temperature: 14.6°C (58°F) Dewpoint: -20.9°C (-6°F) [RH = 7%]

 

 

The dryness here is the biggest thing I'm struggling to get used to. It's absurd.

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The dryness here is the biggest thing I'm struggling to get used to. It's absurd.

In DJF, we average 1.29" water and 22.6" of snow. In October, November, March, and April combined we get 30.3" of snow. (Fort Collins climo)

 

Euro has some snow south of Denver. The snow chances in eastern Colorado are still looking iffy though

 

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Fort Collins, Nov 2014

 

The minimum daily temperature was -4 and occurred on 13 November 2014
 
Lowest Maximum Temperature:
The high temperature of 19 on 11 November 2014 broke the record of 23 set in 1978.
The high temperature of 10 on 12 November 2014 broke the record of 11 set in 1916.
 
November 2014 had 8 consecutive days with the minimum temperature at or
below 15F.
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