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Wednesday/Night Storm Obs


moneypitmike

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Do you think the WCB didn't develop because the lows weren't vertically stacked?

 

Also, do you believe the lack of antecedent cold reduced isentropic left and led to a lot of these dry zones/subsidence areas?

 

The WCB developed, but it looked like the thrust of it was a bit more east. It poured here at home. I did notice the models had funky warm/dry layers aloft on the soundings with areas of subsidence. That may have been a sign of whacky stuff too, but I have seen models show that before and it turned out to be noise. There were these weird gravity waves too, but I don't think they played a big role.  The lack of a cold dome may have helped, but it did seem like models showed really strong lift so despite the lack of a good antecdent airmass...we still were modeled to get strong upward vertical motion from QG forcing. One of the big reasons SWFE do well here is because of good differential advection with a big high to the north. This had none, but it looked like strong WAA could overcome that.  Sometimes you can get fractured precip in between two areas of forcing and that may have happened today. Bottom line is that marginal setups can bust, so it's good to be aware next time. The problem is, next time could easily produce 1-2/hr snows over ORH :lol: It's the nature of weather.

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