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Wednesday/Night Storm Obs


moneypitmike

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Can see the dry punch going up the South Jersey. This baby is toast. Grateful for thanksgiving snow but clearly an underperformer South of the Pike. Poor snow growth, marginal temperatures, mid level low too far NW, warm air aloft, high thicknesses , the deck was stacked against us but I thought the rates would get me to 6.  I think I may retire the weatherbell snow maps for good they were astoundingly too high for many areas.  Let's see how we finish here but I'll be lucky to get to 4.

 

I agree completely with you. And yes, the weatherbell maps were way too high, but to be honest, they all were!! Taunton had Worcester area 10-14 inches...don't think that's going to materialize. This was a tough one to call for sure. But it's only November and that's the GREAT news here. Hope we get many more shots at a real Snowstorm??

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Yeah - not a great forecast. Worked out well in NW CT but too high elswhere - especially east of the river.

Can't blame you or anyone really for that, I think most that forecast for CT(including myself) had similar thoughts. Was banking on ripping for a couple hours in that 11 AM - 2 PM window or so to pile up some accumulations, but a late start, warm tongue on the earlier side of the range and bad positioning with the banding(having the strongest bands on either side of the state)/lack of any banding at all really killed any chance of verification. 

 

Oh well, live and learn, onto the next one. 

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Yeah - not a great forecast. Worked out well in NW CT but too high elswhere - especially east of the river.

 

Once you got the river and just east it was a very challenging forecast and could have gone either way.  Lots didn't really pan out here...warmth just won out and like Will said...WCB didn't materialize as well.  

 

This was my map.  Definitely took a little too much weight I guess into more intense banding occurring.  All models (Euro/GFS/NAM) really had some awesome VV's traversing CT and I thought there was enough showing that the surge of warmth would just be east of Hartford and not really get here.  oops

 

snowmap_zps2b104d61.jpg

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