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Thanksgiving Week Storm (Wed/Wed night)


ORH_wxman

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My first instinct is to throw out the entire 18z suite, all three of the runs that we saw were pretty huge departures from what was a pretty strong consensus(relatively speaking) on the 12z runs, one to a snowy extreme two to a rainy extreme. Who knows, maybe something changed in those 6 hours to make such sudden shifts so close in, but it's pretty rare that something that had been relatively consistently modeled for so long makes such an enormous leap after seeing a continued trend in the other direction for the last several runs. 

 

I'm also highly skeptical of NAM/GFS profiles in general, but that's besides the point.

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Glad Im n of pike. SWFE FTW

 

Essentially this is what the Euro has been advertising outside of maybe one or tw really amped up runs...pellets make it to ORH over to your area or even a bit north...but not before a 6-8 hour snow blitz.

 

I mean, maybe we get lucky and hold onto all snow, but I don't think so...Euro solution has been fairly consistent in showing this.

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