powderfreak Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Lets look at the RGEM and GFS next RGEM will be telling as it's been the coldest of the guidance the last few runs it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Perhaps it is my weenie goggles, but sleet often seems to come into play earlier/farther north than modeled. Probably not. Perhaps it is my weenie goggles, but sleet often seems to come into play earlier/farther north than accepted. Absolutely. You may weenie me now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Latent heat release? No, it was just my shoe squeaking. Okay, fine. I had a big lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 RGEM will be telling as it's been the coldest of the guidance the last few runs it seems. The only wild card is its upgrade and what effect it will have, I guess this will be the first real test Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Probably a hard hat situation and we all know that sleep covered roads are much more fun than snow covered roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Ha, just saw it. While we await the RGEM and GFS, it's probably important to remember a few things. First, this is a gulf system already loaded with convection, only to develop more. While models are usually good at simulating it, they still can pump heights up a tiny bit more downstream than modeled. That can mean some tweaking of the storm track and mid level low positions. Secondly, the trend has been there to warm the mid levels for a few runs now. Of course the front end thump as trended a bit stronger too because of stronger WAA. Thirdly, those 700-650mb warm layers sometimes can ruin the party a bit prematurely it seems. I feel like the higher altitude warm tongues sometimes come in slightly quicker than modeled. Now the good thing is that tremendous vertical velocities will be trying to fight it off. It's going to be a good battle where latitude will help. Anyways, I'm not advocating changing anything..just something to keep in mind. This does look like an HGH run of the NAM that we know and love. Would have more faith for sure in RGEM/Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 and we all know that sleep covered roads are much more fun than snow covered roads. Salt won't effect it much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 With the warm mid-levels and sleet profiles...why is there absolutely no mention of sleet from either BOX or Upton in CT? They seem to think if it's not rain...it's snow...nothing in between. What am I missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM clown map showing a nice large area of 12"+. Seems like every person and model likes ORH to the Monads area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Updated snow forecast from us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Rpm is legit 0 at Logan and 2 to 4 1 mile inland in BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 With the warm mid-levels and sleet profiles...why is there absolutely no mention of sleet from either BOX or Upton in CT? They seem to think if it's not rain...it's snow...nothing in between. What am I missing? I have no idea. It's quite bizarre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Rpm is legit 0 at Logan and 2 to 4 1 mile inland in BOS How about Gloucester / Cape Ann? I would think something similar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM clown map showing a nice large area of 12"+. Seems to be what TWC is going with... 12-18" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Updated snow forecast from us.Ray won't like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM clown map showing a nice large area of 12"+. Seems like every person and model likes ORH to the Monads area That looks like the 12z run not that it matters, Instant weather maps had 16-18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Bostonwx, legit possibility. LOL. At least at some point near the coastline from here to Logan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Updated snow forecast from us. If I had to draw a map it would probably be pretty close to that. Honestly starting to think the shoreline gets boned pretty good, be surprised if we manage anything more than a slushy inch or two back this way. Also not sold on much more than 6" for most of the state outside of the NW hills. Kind of bitter that I'm putting off holiday travel for a day to sit around for what will mostly be a cold rainstorm along the shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 How about Gloucester / Cape Ann? I would think something similar? Really nothing NE of BOS on the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I have no idea. It's quite bizarre. I can see a few pixels south and east of ORH around 00z, but my domain cuts off and I lose the extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 BOX just upped to warning with 8-10..which is what I think this area sees..probably like 8-9.. Hfd sees 6-7..HVN 5-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Bostonwx, legit possibility. LOL. At least at some point near the coastline from here to Logan. I could picture 2 Imby and a coating in quincy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 BOX just upped to warning with 8-10..which is what I think this area sees..probably like 8-9.. Hfd sees 6-7..HVN 5-6 Yeah I like that for your area. 8-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Even the SREF cut back at Logan Wtf man...it has high prob of 4+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Ray won't like that 4-8" ? What is wrong with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Yeah I like that for your area. 8-10". I'm going with 6"... hope you guys are right though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 Wtf man...it has high prob of 4+ It cut back a bit on the 8"+ probs...but yeah, the SREFs were still very snowy right to BOS. Obviously the NAM wanted to go insane with the H7 warm layer...but good chance it may have overdosed on it's afternoon perscription. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Can a mod please go into the NYC forum on the storm. You have multiple posters telling people to go to a different site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 BOX just upped to warning with 8-10..which is what I think this area sees..probably like 8-9.. Hfd sees 6-7..HVN 5-6 I really am not seeing 5-6 in HVN at this point. Maybe North Haven...but right along the shoreline is starting to look pretty ugly IMO. I'd say 3" tops in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I like where I am positioned geographically. My 155 elevation keeps me from getting to aggressive. I like 6-9 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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