dryslot Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 GYX is honking big.......... 000FXUS61 KGYX 260906AFDGYXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME406 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY ANDTRACK NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAYEVENING....BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO NORTHERN NEWENGLAND. THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THEMARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROMTHE WEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWESTSUNDAY WITH A WARM UP EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THEREGION ON MONDAY.&&.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AS WE CLOSE IN ON THE STORM MORE AND MORE MESOSCALE DETAILS HAVEEMERGED, AND HAVE ENHANCED OUR EXISTING FORECAST WITH THESEDETAILS... HOWEVER THE BROAD PICTURE HAS NOT CHANGED. ** A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT NH AND ME THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPERING TRAVEL**AT 09Z THE LOW WAS CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND WILLTRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. TRACK FORECASTSHAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LOW TO PASS JUST NORTHWESTOF THE 70W/40N BENCHMARK AROUND 03Z THURSDAY.THERE ARE TWO MAIN AREAS OF CHANGE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THEFIRST IS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE HEAVY SNOW. QPF AMOUNTS HAVEINCREASED IN PRETTY MUCH ALL FORMS OF GUIDANCE... COMBINED WITHCOLD TEMPS AND IDEAL SNOW GROWTH THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASEOF SNOWFALL FOR THE NORTHERN MOST ZONES... AND HAVE UPGRADED TO AWINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE WHOLE CWA. SOME POCKETS OF THE UPPERCT VALLEY MAY REMAIN MARGINAL IN TERMS OF SNOW TOTALS... BUT FEELTHE MAJORITY OF THE ZONE WILL MEET CRITERIA.THE OTHER CHANGE... AND OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FORBANDING... RESULTING IN VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. VERY STRONGBANDING SIGNATURE WITH 700MB FRONTOGENESIS CONCENTRATED IN A LINEEXTENDING FROM KEENE NH PARALLEL TO THE GULF OF MAINE UP THROUGHTO CALAIS ME. THIS PAIRS UP NICELY WITH A LAYER OF INSTABILITYEXTENDING FROM 700 TO 500MB... SETTING US UP FOR A CLASSICNORTHWEST SECTOR BAND AS THE LOW PASSES FROM SOUTH OF LONG ISLANDNORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS THE BENCHMARK FROM 00Z-06Z TOMORROW. ATTHIS POINT THIS SAME SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT IN ALL THE MAJORGUIDANCE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CMC ... GIVING FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OFTHE FORMATION OF THE BAND. THE NATURE OF THE BEAST IS THAT THEEXACT LOCATION MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH OR SOUTH.. GIVING VERYDIFFERENT SNOWFALL TOTALS WITHIN A FEW MILES BUT FEEL THERE WILLBE PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLANE IMPACTED BY THIS FEATURE BETWEEN00Z AND 06Z. SNOW TOTALS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS AREATO REFLECT THIS BANDING POTENTIAL.**THIS BANDING WILL RESULT IN SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-3"/HR THROUGH THE MOST INTENSE PARTS OF THE BAND.** IN NEW HAMPSHIRE... THE CORRIDOR FROM CONCORD TO MANCHESTER WILL SEE HEAVY SNOW STARTING AROUND 21Z AS THE BAND PUSHES NORTHWARDS. BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z IT SETS UP NICELY PARALLEL TO THE COAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE COASTAL PLANE... IMPACTING ALL NORTH SOUTH TRAVEL ROUTES IN THE CWA. OVERALL THE QUICK MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL HELP AS MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES LIMITED TO AROUND 3HRS. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE LEWISTON TO AUGUSTA REGION... WHERE THE BAND MAY PIVOT AS THE LOW TURNS MORE NORTHWARD KEEPING THE I-95 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHWEST MAINE UNDER THE HEAVY SNOW A BIT LONGER.ONCE AGAIN...THE CONDITIONS WILL BE QUICKLY DETERIORATING ANDEXPECTED TO BE THE WORST WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COINCIDINGWITH THE BUSIEST TRAVEL TIMES. TRAVELERS SHOULD BE AT THEIRDESTINATIONS BY WED AFTERNOON IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Light Rain just started here. Hear it on the skylight. 42oF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 It's always been a big thump of snow to a few hours of sleet..back to snow.. Nothing changed..What some folks underestimated was the BL warmth. That is what is going to hurt lower elevationsNo I disagree that it was underestimated. It has always been a factor that heavy snow would overcome.My concern for areas at 500' like myself and Steve is that it isn't going to be a big thump followed by a few hours of sleep...it is going to be an hour or two of accumulating snow followed by a big thump of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tolland Death Band Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I don't feel as though elevation helps us much today, Reverend. The pink wave of pingers cometh. My call is BDL 4", TOL 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Kev, you will accumulate better and also have longer to hold on to snow. I can see you getting 7-8 while areas around you get less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Well after all the ups and downs with this system here along the NE MA CP, sticking with my conservative final call of 2" or less here. Jives with the WWA. We got to remember any snow is good snow especially in November. That being said, sucks to be teased with something bigger the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Should be all snow here, although we'll see how that relatively warmer, dry layer aloft plays with the snow growth. Pretty much an avg of 1.25" QPF for C NH on the models. Chris' 10-14" is looking pretty good. image.jpg Overnight modeling was extremely favorable, I think we're in for some fun times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Overnight modeling was extremley favorable, I think we're in for some fun timesYou guys should clean up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Boy the RGEM backed down a bit on snow it seems. Any map scott por favor ( at work ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 KORH. 7" KBDL 2" KPVD 0" KTAN 1" KBOS 0" KGAY 3" KHUB 8" KTOL 6" KDEND 10" KGINX 3" KMPM 9" KHIPPY 9" KDRYSLUT 11" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Any map scott por favor ( at work ) I am slammed this morning doing en-route stuff. I'll get back to amounts soon I hope, but I might knock my earlier numbers down a bit...ORH a wild card still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Good luck Scoots. Earning your wings today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Kev, you will accumulate better and also have longer to hold on to snow. I can see you getting 7-8 while areas around you get less. I'm going to see quite a bit of sleet..but the key is timing the changeover. if it happens even an hour or 2 earlier than I think..then instead of 8 I get 6..though adding on an inch or 2 of sleet is good too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Jeff, dumb question, but do you image shack that and zoom in, or is there a northeast sector? I only see the US sector of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 You guys should clean up. Thanks man, It should rip pretty good, I would have never thought we would have an outside shot at 20" for the month of Novie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Bos 1.5 all back end Orh 9 Con 14 Bdl 5 Bdr 0 Pvd 0 Tan 0 Tol 7 after slantstick Me 3.5 Mpm 14 JP is Norfolk CT with 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Jeff, dumb question, but do you image shack that and zoom in, or is there a northeast sector? I only see the US sector of it. Scott, Grab the QUE charts instead of North America Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Jeff, dumb question, but do you image shack that and zoom in, or is there a northeast sector? I only see the US sector of it. Click Quebec in meteocentre once you get to the map you want and you'll see that zoomed in view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Scott, Grab the QUE charts instead of North America Oh Jeez...lol. Of course. Thanks. Enjoy the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Oh Jeez...lol. Of course. Thanks. Enjoy the snow! Thanks, Keep them birds safe down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Sleet here in west hartford Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Sleet here in west hartford LOL oh boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Jeez could this be a huge IP fest for some? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 LOL oh boy. Was supposed to start as mix..then flip to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 KORH. 7" KBDL 2" KPVD 0" KTAN 1" KBOS 0" KGAY 3" KHUB 8" KTOL 6" KDEND 10" KGINX 3" KMPM 9" KHIPPY 9" KDRYSLUT 11" methinks you're selling yourself several inches short there, Dave. Add some more mashed potatoes to that Thanksgiving plate. Bos 1.5 all back end Orh 9 Con 14 Bdl 5 Bdr 0 Pvd 0 Tan 0 Tol 7 after slantstick Me 3.5 Mpm 14 JP is Norfolk CT with 19 Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 HRRR amounts..includes sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Was supposed to start as mix..then flip to snow Yeah, of rain and snow. We'll see of that layer mixes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Ouch. I can bump you up to 15, but full disclaimer, it has no bearing whatsoever on what you will actually receive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Yeah, of rain and snow. We'll see of that layer mixes out. Not totally surprised. There are funky warm layers that still need to wet bulb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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