Thanksgiving Week Storm (Wed/Wed night)

[powderfreak]

31.9/30 here

 

Nice!  Its like 40F here, haha.  SLK at 1,700ft just hit 32F and 1,200ft MPV is 39F. 

 

Someone should start an obs thread, and this probably belongs in there.

[ORH_wxman]

Nice!  Its like 40F here, haha.  SLK at 1,700ft just hit 32F and 1,200ft MPV is 39F. 

 

Someone should start an obs thread, and this probably belongs in there.

 

Already got one

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44986-wednesdaynight-storm/

[Quincy]

I think the RGEM look is reasonable. Shows the typical metropolitan split with PHL-NYC-PVD-BOS all right on that line. Very little SE and more off to the *NW (always making typos on mobile). Going to be a close call for Kev, but Ginxy will probably ping for a while.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Hoping those gravity wave like features materialize

[40/70 Benchmark]

Will, when is this over? By 7pm?

The NAM has me mixing after 7pm, the GFS before.

I can't access the sounding at the critical 21st hour, though...of course.

[weatherwiz]

I think the RGEM look is reasonable. Shows the typical metropolitan split with PHL-NYC-PVD-BOS all right on that line. Very little SE and more off to the NE. Going to be a close call for Kev, but Ginxy will probably ping for a while.

 

The 0z NAM/GFS are really aggressive with the surge of warmth in and around 700mb back into eastern CT...the 12z Euro, however, wasn't nearly as aggressive.  Looks like the NAM/GFS want to get that 700mb circulation going and becoming a bit tighter quicker than what is advertised by the Euro.  

[ORH_wxman]

Will, when is this over? By 7pm?

The NAM has me mixing after 7pm, the GFS before.

I can't access the sounding at the critical 21st hour, though...of course.

 

 

I think the heavy stuff is over by 7-8pm...21z is still a snow sounding at ORH/BED on the GFS, but probably flipping to pellets within an hour or two later.

 

Well if we ignore the furnace below 950mb.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

My guess is pellets make it around 4-5pm after a good 6 hour thumping...if they hold off until 00z, then you could probably add 3-4" to accumulations.

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

Barring any big changes on the euro my call is 4-5" at my place, fairly confident on 6" in west peabody.

NECN has the best map I've seen all night IMO.

[Quincy]

00z GFS torches at 700mb. All the way up to +2C at ORH. Ugly.

[powderfreak]

00z GFS QPF... ORH hills getting ripped.  But really, this is quite a solid storm for November, lol.  Reeks of Nino moisture.  I'd be ecstatic with 0.7" LE.  This thing is going to town at just the right time for New England.

 

[Ginx snewx]

Caveat, rapidly falling 5 h,big vvs,northerly ageo drain, potential gravity waves, uneven qpf. Nowcast, heavy thumper

[N. OF PIKE]

Caveat, rapidly falling 5 h,big vvs,northerly ageo drain, potential gravity waves, uneven qpf. Nowcast, heavy thumper

Gonna take a little weenie trip to ORH around noon, weenie out @ starbucks  till late evening. Not gonna risk the rain in Melrose, can't deal with it lol. Gonna be fun to track

[powderfreak]

Gonna take a little weenie trip to ORH around noon, weenie out @ starbucks  till late evening. Not gonna risk the rain in Melrose, can't deal with it lol. Gonna be fun to track

 

If you are that close to guaranteed big snows, then why not...sounds like a good plan.

[phil882]

Hey guys... I'm beta testing a new HRRR site that I'll be putting together over the next several months. Since this system is a big ticket item, I decided to test out the cronjob to see its performance for this event. I'm looking for feedback, so let me know what you guys think. Give it some time to load all of the images but this is the latest HRRR model cycle.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_2d.php

 

Toggle the left and right arrow keys to go forward or backwards in forecast time, and toggle the up and down arrow keys to cycle through the different fields. It should be updating every hour starting around 20 minutes past the hour.

 

Fields available: 2 meter temperature

 

 

Top of Atmosphere Brightness Temperature

 

1km Reflectivity (precipitation total in white text)

 

 

10 meter winds

 

[N. OF PIKE]

If you are that close to guaranteed big snows, then why not...sounds like a good plan.

Like one hour  away NBD, chill out have a latte, fire up computer weenie out , heck i'll take some measurements. Wish ML warmth could hold off until last of OMEGA thump passes.  

[SR Airglow]

Hey guys... I'm beta testing a new HRRR site that I'll be putting together over the next several months. Since this system is a big ticket item, I decided to test out the cronjob to see its performance for this event. I'm looking for feedback, so let me know what you think. Give it some time to load all of the images but this is the latest HRRR model cycle.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_2d.php

 

Toggle the left and right arrow keys to go forward or backwards in forecast time, and toggle the up and down arrow keys to cycle through the different fields. It should be updating every hour starting around 20 minutes past the hour.

At first glance I really like it, obviously would love to see some more fields added(850s and QPF being the biggies), but as far as the format goes I like it a lot, really easy to use and read.

[Juliancolton]

Hey guys... I'm beta testing a new HRRR site that I'll be putting together over the next several months. Since this system is a big ticket item, I decided to test out the cronjob to see its performance for this event. I'm looking for feedback, so let me know what you think. Give it some time to load all of the images but this is the latest HRRR model cycle.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_2d.php

 

Toggle the left and right arrow keys to go forward or backwards in forecast time, and toggle the up and down arrow keys to cycle through the different fields. It should be updating every hour starting around 20 minutes past the hour.

I like it... bookmarked. Took a long time to load but that's probably something you have absolutely no control over. Looking forward to seeing what you add as time goes on.

[phil882]

At first glance I really like it, obviously would love to see some more fields added(850s and QPF being the biggies), but as far as the format goes I like it a lot, really easy to use and read.

 

Total QPF is actually on the reflectivity plots at station locations (the station name is on the TOP brightness temperature plot). 850-hPa temperature, soundings, frontogenesis and other goodies are in the works, but are at coarser temporal resolution (1 hour). This is just the tip of the iceberg!

 

 

I like it... bookmarked. Took a long time to load but that's probably something you have absolutely no control over. Looking forward to seeing what you add as time goes on.

 

Yea the images are between 200-300 kb each so it does take a while to load, but the looper will let you know what frames are available... I could cut the size of the images further, but it would start to significantly degrade the quality of the images.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Final call just posted to FB:

 

One of the toughest forecasts I can recall, on the most important travel day of the year. After perusing the latest data fairly extensively over the course of the past few hours, I see no reason to stray from my assertion that some local TV meteorologists are going to have some egg on their collective face. Many places may start as a bit of rain around the morning commute; however that will flip to snow. North of the Mass pike and outside of rt 128 will see 6-10 inches of snow before changing to ice pellets around 6pm. Highest totals should be relegated to the hills of n Worcester county and southwestern NH, where someone will break a foot. Inside of rt 128 in the Boston area, 3-7", lightest at the beaches, but quickly building as one traverses inland towards rt 128. Interior se MA should see 3-6" before a flip to sleet and rain, and coastal se MA and the cape and islands should see mainly rain

[TalcottWx]

Hey guys... I'm beta testing a new HRRR site that I'll be putting together over the next several months. Since this system is a big ticket item, I decided to test out the cronjob to see its performance for this event. I'm looking for feedback, so let me know what you guys think. Give it some time to load all of the images but this is the latest HRRR model cycle.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/hrrr/hrrr_2d.php

 

Toggle the left and right arrow keys to go forward or backwards in forecast time, and toggle the up and down arrow keys to cycle through the different fields. It should be updating every hour starting around 20 minutes past the hour.

 

Fields available: 2 meter temperature

 

 

Top of Atmosphere Brightness Temperature

 

1km Reflectivity (precipitation total in white text)

 

 

10 meter winds

 

This is sweet, thanks

[SR Airglow]

Total QPF is actually on the reflectivity plots at station locations (the station name is on the TOP brightness temperature plot). 850-hPa temperature, soundings, frontogenesis and other goodies are in the works, but are at coarser temporal resolution (1 hour). This is just the tip of the iceberg!

 

 

 

Yea the images are between 200-300 kb each so it does take a while to load, but the looper will let you know what frames are available... I could cut the size of the images further, but it would start to significantly degrade the quality of the images.

Awesome! You've got a great start so far, looking forward to seeing what happens next.

 

Don't cut the size further, having good quality is more important than not having to wait a few seconds to load IMO.

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

Final call just posted to FB:

One of the toughest forecasts I can recall, on the most important travel day of the year. After perusing the latest data fairly extensively over the course of the past few hours, I see no reason to stray from my assertion that some local TV meteorologists are going to have some egg on their collective face. Many places may start as a bit of rain around the morning commute; however that will flip to snow. North of the Mass pike and outside of rt 128 will see 6-10 inches of snow before changing to ice pellets around 6pm. Highest totals should be relegated to the hills of n Worcester county and southwestern NH, where someone will break a foot. Inside of rt 128 in the Boston area, 3-7", lightest at the beaches, but quickly building as one traverses inland towards rt 128. Interior se MA should see 3-6" before a flip to sleet and rain, and coastal se MA and the cape and islands should see mainly rain

Agree with your thoughts. Modeling has pretty much been honed in on track, and everything you've got here is well supported IMO.

[N. OF PIKE]

^{0z BTV WRF doesn't look that bad. ORH barely gets into mixing before back to snow...but it doesn't really get past N Worcester (city)}

 

^{http://www.weather.gov/btv/4kmwrf}

 

^{850's are def. not the issue NW of SE mass.}

 

^{Also finishes as snow on this model for most areas, wonder if there will actually be LEGIT back end snows?}

[phil882]

Awesome! You've got a great start so far, looking forward to seeing what happens next.

 

Don't cut the size further, having good quality is more important than not having to wait a few seconds to load IMO.

 

Thanks, and ok I'll leave the size as is. 

 

This is sweet, thanks

 

Thanks

[weathafella]

Hi from lower CT. Low 40s on the Merritt.

[TalcottWx]

I think we see euro similar but a touch colder at 0z. That's my guess at least.

[SR Airglow]

Low center in the early hours took a big jump NW following some thunderstorms, not sure if it's convective feedback or legit but worth noting if it has an oddball solution here.

[N. OF PIKE]

I think we see euro similar but a touch colder at 0z. That's my guess at least.

This thing is juiced like Sammy Sosa in 1998.

 

I haven't a guess which way Euro will go but I am very interested in Low Level AND Mid Level (7H) temps for large chunk of area

[TalcottWx]

Low center in the early hours took a big jump NW following some thunderstorms, not sure if it's convective feedback or legit but worth noting if it has an oddball solution here.

precip shield is going to be really impressive in a few hours per hrrr

[The 4 Seasons]

Euro pretty big jump west at 18 and 24 hours out, ugly.