N. OF PIKE Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I (and others) did consider the 18z run suspect ("NAM needs drug-testing") and speculated why it was suspect ("how it handled convection by Carolinas"). How ironic that it could have been more accurate with the warmth than 0z NAM. My only point is a little humility ("grasshoppers")... my own expectations were always very low for mby, but this still has been an extremely difficult high-impact forecast for eastern MA, pros or hobbyists alike. In any case, I hope you do well tomorrow! This 0z RGEM is it for me. Congrats those in CNE. Coastal, Messenger, Cpick and others in eastern SNE, we'll have ours this season. Man what a roller coaster of emotions we are in for tomorrow, I'm just trying to get NW for this storm, I'm pretty much cooked in Melrose I'm looking at either Berks or NH than coming back Thursday by noon (not eating till 3 or so turkey day) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Wow Not too shabby. Looking at that red, Dave is getting rocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 What a tropical conveyor belt I'm starting to think that the NAM is not overdone on QPF...RGEM matches it perfectly. 1.6"here. I know this is safe, but perhaps that tropical connection negates the fact that H7 is west? Man.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 That's 1.5-2'' for most in the fire engine red...slice it like the NAM.I don't know. Tropical connection, so could be legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 26, 2014 Author Share Posted November 26, 2014 GFS cooled a bit off the 18z furnace... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 GFS is warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Thanks God. Kills me with ip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 GFS cooled a bit off the 18z furnace... Still looks on the warmer side of guidance though, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Phil says GFS is warm, pf says its warm, will says it cooled off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 GFS is warm. Definitely ticked cooler from the 18z run though, good sign although it is still the warmest right now it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Oct 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Wow--GFS is WWW: west, warm, and wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 26, 2014 Author Share Posted November 26, 2014 Still looks on the warmer side of guidance though, no? Yes, but I'm playing it off it's last run...it def ticked colder than 18z. I'm still going with the Euro I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I don't know. Tropical connection, so could be legit. Yeah I definitely buy QPF at or >1'' but 1.5-2'' is tough to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Phil says GFS is warm, pf says its warm, will says it cooled off I was in the warm camp, too. I'll let the folks who know work it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Phil says GFS is warm, pf says its warm, will says it cooled off Well I didn't compare to 18z, just that it seems to be one of the warmer guidance right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Still looks on the warmer side of guidance though, no? You were all over that. WARM!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Yes, but I'm playing it off it's last run...it def ticked colder than 18z. I'm still going with the Euro I think. It almost had to cool a bit from 18z. >0C still gets pretty far NW. Confirms that I'll see plain rain for a good part. Maybe Ray to say Andover can hold onto the mid levels for longer.Now thinking 2" or less here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 overall the GFS has improved out west and little to the east, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Yes, but I'm playing it off it's last run...it def ticked colder than 18z. I'm still going with the Euro I think. 0z GFS looks way better than 18z for me. An improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 26, 2014 Author Share Posted November 26, 2014 It almost had to cool a bit from 18z. >0C still gets pretty far NW. Confirms that I'll see plain rain for a good part. Maybe Ray to say Andover can hold onto the mid levels for longer. Now thinking 2" or less here. The warmest model cooling off to less obscene warmth now confirms that you will see a warm solution tomorrow and less than 2" of snow? I'm a little puzzled by that line of thinking...I won't join you on that I don't think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Man that's a condo crusher verbatim N an W of 495...1.25-1.5'' of QPF even on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 It almost had to cool a bit from 18z. >0C still gets pretty far NW. Confirms that I'll see plain rain for a good part. Maybe Ray to say Andover can hold onto the mid levels for longer. Now thinking 2" or less here. I still think 5-7" here, not much rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 1.25-1.50 in the all frozen areas, more in the areas that taint. Looks like part of that will be on the back end after things cool back down so even the tainted areas will do okay. Okay--off to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 0z GFS looks way better than 18z for me. An improvement. It gives us like 10-11" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I would lock in plowable north of pike and nw of 128. Seems inevitable now for those locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 The warmest model cooling off to less obscene warmth now confirms that you will see a warm solution tomorrow and less than 2" of snow? I'm a little puzzled by that line of thinking...I won't join you on that I don't think. I'm sticking to my guns 6-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 It gives us like 10-11" Yeah, shes coming. I see no reasons to cut back on my snowfall map yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Haha I just stepped outside and it's raining lightly...just a brief shower but man this airmass is going to lead to some maple mauler snow type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 bizarro world? NWS Boston @NWSBoston [1045p] Tech: 00z NAM/GFS trend warmer. Track just E of Nantucket most likely, which keeps heaviest snow inland. No big changes to fcst yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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