SnowMan Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 You ping pingVerbatim us in southern Nh hold onto heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Huh? The snow growth zone is waaaaayyyyyy above that level. If anything you could be getting huge aggregates due to the marginal low level temps, especially in moderate to heavy snow with the flake concentration so high. Those things will stick together like cotton candy. And compaction is more of an issue in long-duration fluff events anyway, not a heavy thumper that drops all its snow in like 9 hours. C'mon man...you can't find any more negatives. They're all played out I would think the weight of high content snow would compact and that was an element in ratios just as flake origins/quality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Wow that's a decent shift. Looks kind of warm at face value Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 12z 0z Is west less than 4 out to 495 may become reality RGEM was what I thlnk Will Was interested in earlier. SNH to Central Mass would have big gradient. I think the trend is clear w/ ML temps and the Low is slower and further west. W SNE gets crushed over to Monads If we cool from top down and we have no real low level cold when mid level temps warm I wonder if the dreaded 33F rain or prob sleet becomes an issue, I think Ray may get his sleet storm I wonder if the AGEO N flow is present with the Low position tucked into S NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 12z 0z Is west Jesus. What a b*tch of a forecast. I'm just going climo. I've seen one major sleet event in 34 years in this area, and i'm going to bet this will not be the second. It won't be rain. However I will allow for some sleet and drizzle at the end. 4-8" Call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 12z 0z Is west Not a baby step either. A test of the new and improved (?) RGEM. Somehow, PF is going to end up getting some good snow when this is all said and done. I'm really eager to hear how much he ends up with at the end of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Yet the 18z GFS was by far the warmest of the guidance earlier this evening. Waiting for that to cool the mid levels before spiking anything. 0z RGEM coming in warm again leads me to believe the 0z NAM was the run out of whack. Not the 18z. We shall see. It leads me to believe that it's marginal and the models do not know what the hell to do....the differences are noise. They waffle. In a case like this, default to climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Not a baby step either. A test of the new and improved (?) RGEM. Somehow, PF is going to end up getting some good snow when this is all said and done. I'm really eager to hear how much he ends up with at the end of the day. Its a crushing here all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I would think the weight of high content snow would compact and that was an element in ratios just as flake origins/quality. Well if you have high content snow over fluff, then yeah...but if you are just getting straight up cement or even just normal 10:1 ratio stuff, you won't notice much. Plus it comes in so fast and hard in this storm that it really won't matter. I bet storm totals of snow on the ground will be very close to what someone who measured twice in 12 hours or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Jesus. What a b*tch of a forecast. I'm just going climo. I've seen one major sleet event in 34 years in this area, and i'm going to bet this will not be the second. It won't be rain. However I will allow for some sleet and drizzle at the end. 4-8" Call. Good luck with the call, Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 KNYC 12mm snow, 20mm rain, 9mm IP KBDL 20mm snow, 7mm rain, 16mm IP KBOS 5mm snow, 40mm rain, 3mm IP All LE's from the 0z RGEM on Meteocentre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Jesus. What a b*tch of a forecast. I'm just going climo. I've seen one major sleet event in 34 years in this area, and i'm going to bet this will not be the second. It won't be rain. However I will allow for some sleet and drizzle at the end. 4-8" Call. I'm thinking I definitely change to rain at some point. If 850 torches, it'll rain here. 2-4" final call here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Not a baby step either. A test of the new and improved (?) RGEM. Somehow, PF is going to end up getting some good snow when this is all said and done. I'm really eager to hear how much he ends up with at the end of the day. 3-6" here. Around .33-.4" of QPF. That's my call. 10-12" for you with 1.0" of QPF. Enjoy the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 When will BOX lower its totals on their winter weather info page? Is it still the battle of the models or is the trend westward and warmer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 It leads me to believe that it's marginal and the models do not know what the hell to do....the differences are noise. They waffle. This...they are all in the same general goalposts...just small tics here and there but its noise level. Its just that even 20 miles has a huge impact on both sides of the storm, from SE to NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 What a tropical conveyor belt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Wow That's 1.5-2'' for most in the fire engine red...slice it like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I'll go with whatever the Euro says at 0z. It doesn't really fail within 24 hours. The rest of the models are noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Wow lol congrats....got that snowblower all tuned up? All the small noise level shifts around the past two days...that jackpot zone has never really moved. Southern Berkshires to northern ORH to Maine coastal plain on the south side, and SVT to Dendrite and the Maine foothills on the north side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 That's 1.5-2'' for most in the fire engine red...slice it like the NAM. Even sliced its impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I'm thinking I definitely change to rain at some point. If 850 torches, it'll rain here. 2-4" final call here. 850 doesn't look to be an issue at all to me, but if the low is where it is on RGEM tucked near ACY I wonder if the AGEO drain is still present or BL becomes an issue a tick or 2 further west into Essex county. I think it looks good for snow to sleet or sleet/snow mix for ray. I am going to rain a lot in N Melrose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Its a crushing here all snow Did you really have any doubt? Well if you have high content snow over fluff, then yeah...but if you are just getting straight up cement or even just normal 10:1 ratio stuff, you won't notice much. Plus it comes in so fast and hard in this storm that it really won't matter. I bet storm totals of snow on the ground will be very close to what someone who measured twice in 12 hours or something. Gotcha. What's the current expected start time out here--8:00ish? Is the RGEM similar to the EC? Didn't the 18z GFS line up well with that ? Almost time for the GFS. Then bed time for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 lol congrats....got that snowblower all tuned up? Yeah, the JD tractor was prepped a couple weeks ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Wow Do you have the one that's just frozen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Did you really have any doubt? Gotcha. What's the current expected start time out here--8:00ish? Is the RGEM similar to the EC? Didn't the 18z GFS line up well with that ? Almost time for the GFS. Then bed time for me. Some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Ignoring it, and holding off on any changes because you consider it suspect are two different ideologies. I felt as though it was suspect, and would come back to Earth, and it has. I (and others) did consider the 18z run suspect ("NAM needs drug-testing") and speculated why it was suspect ("how it handled convection by Carolinas"). How ironic that it could have been more accurate with the warmth than 0z NAM. My only point is a little humility ("grasshoppers")... my own expectations were always very low for mby, but this still has been an extremely difficult high-impact forecast for eastern MA, pros or hobbyists alike. In any case, I hope you do well tomorrow! This 0z RGEM is it for me. Congrats those in CNE. Coastal, Messenger, Cpick and others in eastern SNE, we'll have ours this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Do you have the one that's just frozen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Even sliced its impressive For sure. Definitely wouldn't be surprised if some places in N ORH got around a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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