weathafella Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Off to Princeton. Will check back at pee time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 What a tough forecast for Boston metro... 0z NAM more consistent with 12z NAM, though still warmer aloft 700mb temps > 0 through much of the event all the way to NH border in eastern MA On this run depiction, Boston actually does better on the backend (between 03z-07z) as for people following "Tourette's", the entire 18z suite (NAM, GFS, RGEM, 21z SREFs) jumped warmer... I still give most weight to RGEM, and 0z will be very telling. Yes, but the NAM is and has been the most capricious model of all. It always does that. The NAM had this as a fish until yesterday. RGEM and GFS have been much more consistent....though the RGEM did start pretty cold. SREFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Off to Princeton. Will check back at pee time. Eh...just leaving now? Pull in about 2am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 What a tough forecast for Boston metro... 0z NAM more consistent with 12z NAM, though still warmer aloft 700mb temps > 0 through much of the event all the way to NH border in eastern MA On this run depiction, Boston actually does better on the backend (between 03z-07z) as for people following "Tourette's", the entire 18z suite (NAM, GFS, RGEM, 21z SREFs) jumped warmer... I still give most weight to RGEM, and 0z will be very telling. front end or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Man this forum comes alive after a better trend for the populous haha...the last few hours since 18z have been like a funeral in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Jesus, why is the NAM still so wet? I have like 1.6" QPF...I figured that it would have slipped, fallen, and landed on a clue by now. Cut that $hit by a 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Eh...just leaving now? Pull in about 2am? Closer to 3...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 We're getting ripped in Hillsborough County tomorrow...was surprised to take a closer look at the 18z GFS soundings after looking at NCEP really quick on my phone, thought it would have been warmer aloft...8-12'' if we keep the sleet away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Yes, but the NAM is and has been the most capricious model of all. It always does that. The NAM had this as a fish until yesterday. RGEM and GFS have been mud more consistent. SREFS? Totally agree that the NAM is not worth a mention outside of 36 hours, empirically based on its performance the past few years. And at this time for this storm, I too absolutely favor an RGEM / EC blend. But to ignore the NAM within 24 hours? I am totally aware of it's historic eggs (Feb 2013). But everyone, here and at NCEP and BOX, factors it in to some degree, and jumps when it jumps. We even had a discussion in this very thread about the statistical relevance of the 18z NAM. And all 18z guidance ticked significantly warmer, so it was totally reasonable to consider it. That said, I think the Boston metro forecast in this case continues to be extremely difficult. There is guidance for anything from mostly rain with non-accumulating slush to as much as 3-4 inches. Posters here may be reacting to model runs all over the place, but fact is the pro mets, TV and otherwise, appear to be struggling with this high-impact forecast just as much. Eager to see 0z RGEM... would be nice to see it tick back towards 12z. Also interested to see what EC and GFS have to say about the later backend, which on the 0z NAM is the most prolific snow period for Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Camping out for Black Friday deals on shawls where is MPM, he should celebrating with a case of diet pepsi. He should see a solid foot LOL. I'm here. I was trying to figure out why the NAM was dropping that lower qpf into the NW corner at hours 18-21. Looking forward to a good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 How has the kicker energy been trending ...non factor? Seemed models trended a few hours slower from this am to pm, so wondered if kicker had any more say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Jesus, why is the NAM still so wet? I have like 1.6" QPF...I figured that it would have slipped, fallen, and landed on a clue by now. Cut that $hit by a 3rd. Pretty close to all snow on that run too. If mid levels stay cold enough I think we see mostly snow here. Rarely does sleet last for long. I only notice sleet during the 20 minute transition from snow to rain and vice versa. I think that would be the case tomorrow in E MA north of BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 LOL. I'm here. I was trying to figure out why the NAM was dropping that lower qpf into the NW corner at hours 18-21. Looking forward to a good snow. Mike? What did you do with Mike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 RUC 925mb temps at 2pm tomorrow... looks like the 0C line is like IJD to south side of BOS. Only -3C all the way up here. Gonna be some heavy wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 RUC 925mb temps at 2pm tomorrow... looks like the 0C line is like IJD to south side of BOS. Only -3C all the way up here. Gonna be some heavy wet snow. Untitled.jpg Crappy ratios, ftl. Make sure you get your regular measurements. Compaction might be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 High to low in SE mass. Looks like where the coastal front could set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Getting a good vibe with Mesos of a thumper the dumper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Crappy ratios, ftl. Make sure you get your regular measurements. Compaction might be a problem. Huh? The snow growth zone is waaaaayyyyyy above that level. If anything you could be getting huge aggregates due to the marginal low level temps, especially in moderate to heavy snow with the flake concentration so high. Those things will stick together like cotton candy. And compaction is more of an issue in long-duration fluff events anyway, not a heavy thumper that drops all its snow in like 9 hours. C'mon man...you can't find any more negatives. They're all played out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Not surprising to see the NAM go off its rocker like it did at 18z... it did an awful job underplaying the convection over FL which is probably limiting moisture transport further upstream. Compare to current radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 RUC 925mb temps at 2pm tomorrow... looks like the 0C line is like IJD to south side of BOS. Only -3C all the way up here. Gonna be some heavy wet snow. Untitled.jpg Who pulled the RUC out from the grave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Who pulled the RUC out from the grave? Messenger is MIA so I had to do it...but guess it's the RAP, lol.Gotta get him back here to convince everyone the SE trend is real In all seriousness...anyone preferred between the RAP and HRRR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Totally agree that the NAM is not worth a mention outside of 36 hours, empirically based on its performance the past few years. And at this time for this storm, I too absolutely favor an RGEM / EC blend. But to ignore the NAM within 24 hours? I am totally aware of it's historic eggs (Feb 2013). But everyone, here and at NCEP and BOX, factors it in to some degree, and jumps when it jumps. We even had a discussion in this very thread about the statistical relevance of the 18z NAM. And all 18z guidance ticked significantly warmer, so it was totally reasonable to consider it. That said, I think the Boston metro forecast in this case continues to be extremely difficult. There is guidance for anything from mostly rain with non-accumulating slush to as much as 3-4 inches. Posters here may be reacting to model runs all over the place, but fact is the pro mets, TV and otherwise, appear to be struggling with this high-impact forecast just as much. Eager to see 0z RGEM... would be nice to see it tick back towards 12z. Also interested to see what EC and GFS have to say about the later backend, which on the 0z NAM is the most prolific snow period for Boston. Ignoring it, and holding off on any changes because you consider it suspect are two different ideologies. I felt as though it was suspect, and would come back to Earth, and it has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Two questions: 1) Is there an issue with coolwx.com? I'm unable to change the station from Cape Hatteras, NC... 2) Could someone provide me with a link to the text soundings data? Thanks....sorry for OT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Messenger is MIA so I had to do it...but guess it's the RAP, lol. Gotta get him back here to convince everyone the SE trend is real In all seriousness...anyone preferred between the RAP and HRRR? Messenger is back...Clint Leatherwood or something like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Two questions: 1) Is there an issue with coolwx.com? I'm unable to change the station from Cape Hatteras, NC... 2) Could someone provide me with a link to the text soundings data? Thanks....sorry for OT. You can get text soundings here: http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html Choose text as the product type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 12z 0z Is west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Ignoring it, and holding off on any changes because you consider it suspect are two different ideologies. I felt as though it was suspect, and would come back to Earth, and it has. Yet the 18z GFS was by far the warmest of the guidance earlier this evening. Waiting for that to cool the mid levels before spiking anything.0z RGEM coming in warm again leads me to believe the 0z NAM was the run out of whack. Not the 18z. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 heavy sleet on rgem for most of CT along 84 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 heavy sleet on rgem for most of CT along 84 corridor. You ping ping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 12z 0z Is west Wow that's quite the jump for the RGEM...lots of folks riding that one too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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