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Thanksgiving Week Storm (Wed/Wed night)


ORH_wxman

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18z NAM looks like it's on crack according to the 0z NAM, significantly cooler aloft and a tick or two east.

 

As far as the SREF being based off the NAM, they are a set of ensembles from three smaller mesos(ARW, NMM, NMB?), which makes up 21 members, plus the NAM itself is member 22. I don't know if the members are based off of NAM algorithms or not, but I've noticed that they often(although not always) follow the previous NAM run, and so I wouldn't be opposed to tossing them given that this new NAM is much cooler. They are pretty horrible guidance anyway though.

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