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Thanksgiving Week Storm (Wed/Wed night)


ORH_wxman

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NBC 30 in CT(Ryans Station) has upped their amounts from earlier today.  They now have 4-8 inches(upped from 3-6) for interior portions of CT, and 8-12 inches(up from 6-10) for the Northwest portion of the state.  Hey, I'm happy it's going to snow period.  For this time of the year, this is fabulous.  Enjoy whatever you get everybody. :-) 

We sort of sharpened the gradient. We dropped totals at the shoreline and raised them in the hills. In between no real change in thinking.

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A couple of us were noting the lack of any mention of sleet in the NWS forecasts a little earlier. Upton just responded to a comment of mine about it on FB. Their reasoning is they don't feel the cold layer is deep enough to support sleet, especially with marginal surface temps. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

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A couple of us were noting the lack of any mention of sleet in the NWS forecasts a little earlier. Upton just responded to a comment of mine about it on FB. Their reasoning is they don't feel the cold layer is deep enough to support sleet, especially with marginal surface temps. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

I see that down your way but not across interior areas. Decent chill at 925 should get the job done.

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Just saw that para new GFS from 18z and it's got an all out elevation snowstorm. Pretty warm boundary layer but spits out 2.8" at BDL while ORH gets 7.7"...2.0" at KBED but 11" in northern ORH hills. Definite elevation signal...like 5" at ALB but a foot in the Catskills. But then again the model upgraded resolution has been very terrain happy from what I've seen lately.

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Just saw that para new GFS from 18z and it's got an all out elevation snowstorm. Pretty warm boundary layer but spits out 2.8" at BDL while ORH gets 7.7"...2.0" at KBED but 11" in northern ORH hills. Definite elevation signal...like 5" at ALB but a foot in the Catskills. But then again the model upgraded resolution has been very terrain happy from what I've seen lately.

would not shock me at all, pukish BL but dynamics will get the job done. However i think the Mid level warming being depicted now on more models is the real deal. It just so happens that most of elevation are NW of mid level warming (as i see it on 18z BTV WRF) 

 

18z BTV WRF showing that 700mb 0c line just north of ORH-BOS line at 4pm and a lot of precip is wasted as either cold rain or sleet from 4-9pm. At 7pm FIT-KASH is above 0c at 7H. 

 

Notably just north of Danbury to west of Gardner mass seems to escape Mid level issues. I would place highest totals NW Ct hills, Berks and into CNE

 

0z should be final say

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A couple of us were noting the lack of any mention of sleet in the NWS forecasts a little earlier. Upton just responded to a comment of mine about it on FB. Their reasoning is they don't feel the cold layer is deep enough to support sleet, especially with marginal surface temps. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

 

Fair enough, but then shouldn't there be a mention of rain in the afternoon/evening?  I haven't seen any model, except maybe the RGEM, that is showing purely (or even mostly) snow around here for the second half of the event.  Obviously, I'm hoping they are seeing something I'm not (it happens a lot).

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