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Thanksgiving Week Storm (Wed/Wed night)


ORH_wxman

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  On 11/25/2014 at 10:32 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm awaiting 00z for final call, too.

That's probably a good call. Watch the GFS and NAM go right back to where they were before and all this discussion is for naught. Maybe it's right, but maybe something funky got into the initialization schemes of the 18z NCEP progs.

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  On 11/25/2014 at 10:43 PM, jgordonjr said:

NWS has 8-14 for ORH and that doesn't sound too crazy if elevation is taken into account.

 

14 will be too high for the city. That warm tongue doesn't really care too much about elevation, although obviously the higher up, the last QPF you waste trying to wetbulb.

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Interesting comments by Pete Bouchard during his last segment. He said the models have trended warmer and there is a possibility the snow makes it to Worcester before peeling back again. Also he added he is thinking of changing his current forecast to heavy rain at the 10 PM update if the models continue to trend warmer.

 

I do not think his line of thinking can be discounted out of hand.

 

 

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  On 11/25/2014 at 10:41 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

I am guessing it is not a forecast map. Prob just showing one model output x some goofy algorithm

 

Weather Channel actually had 12-18" on their forecast map last night for much of CT and Mass, lol.

 

I agree with the general WGGB map for most of New England...

 

post-5795-0-70745100-1416955973_thumb.pn

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  On 11/25/2014 at 10:58 PM, ruNNaWayIcEberG said:

I'll go with a euro/rgem blend.

BDR: 3"

HVN: 2"

DXR: 12"

BDL: 6"

That's not a bad forecast, but that's not a EURO/RGEM blend IMO. If you're taking straight 50/50 EURO/RGEM, you're looking at at least 6" at your southern 2 stations considering RGEM was a foot+ there even assuming the EURO was all rain(which it wasn't).

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  On 11/25/2014 at 11:01 PM, skisheep said:

That's not a bad forecast, but that's not a EURO/RGEM blend IMO. If you're taking straight 50/50 EURO/RGEM, you're looking at at least 6" at your southern 2 stations considering RGEM was a foot+ there even assuming the EURO was all rain(which it wasn't).

Should of said not an even blend. Weighted more towards euro but taking rgem into consideration off its great year last winter.

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