N. OF PIKE Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On 11/25/2014 at 7:42 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: No. so we disagree. If it's 34.0 at fitchbur airport (300') and dumping snow after evap cooling took over would you be shocked beyond belief w this airmass. Maybe i'm a fool lol . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On 11/25/2014 at 7:44 PM, cpick79 said: so we disagree. If it's 34.0 at fitchbur airport (300') and dumping snow after evap cooling took over would you be shocked beyond belief w this airmass. Maybe i'm a fool lol . I wouldn't call you a fool, but there is zero chance this is rain to 495. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On 11/25/2014 at 7:45 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I wouldn't call you a fool, but there is zero chance this is rain to 495. I didn't say that...I said 34-35F very wet snow that has trouble accumulating more than 2 or 3 inches out to just past 495 in lower elevations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Is there anyway to guess what the temp would go down to upon precip start with the Temp/DP spread? Is it roughly half way in between? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Once it rips it'll accumulate just fine, we've seen this before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 On 11/25/2014 at 7:44 PM, cpick79 said: so we disagree. If it's 34.0 at fitchbur airport (300') and dumping snow after evap cooling took over would you be shocked beyond belief w this airmass. Maybe i'm a fool lol . We'd have to end up with lighter precip rates. You get busts more often when it is 34F and 1 mile vis light snow that doesn't stick verses heavy snow that won't accumulate...I don't think I've ever seen heavy snow not accumulate. If you are ripping S or S+...one, its hard to stay at 34F (it will want to latently cool to 32-33), secondly, the heavy rates overwhelm any immediate warmth at the surface. This is why the warm ground argument doesn't work even if it was 75F two days before a spring snow bomb. But that 34-35F type snow is usually when you have a lighter event...so it's all about the rates. You get heavy precip, its going to be 32F and not stay at 34-35F. If precip ends up being overdone and we get a more shredded radar presentation, then that would help the sfc temps stay higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Even the SREF cut back at Logan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On 11/25/2014 at 7:47 PM, cpick79 said: I didn't say that...I said 34-35F very wet snow that has trouble accumulating more than 2 or 3 inches out to just past 495 in lower elevations Oh, well I'd be stunned if I saw less than 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 On 11/25/2014 at 7:49 PM, BRSno said: Even the SREF cut back at Logan Not suprising, the SREFs had a ridiculous amount of snow right to the coast at 09z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On 11/25/2014 at 7:49 PM, ORH_wxman said: We'd have to end up with lighter precip rates. You get busts more often when it is 34F and 1 mile vis light snow that doesn't stick verses heavy snow that won't accumulate...I don't think I've ever seen heavy snow not accumulate. If you are ripping S or S+...one, its hard to stay at 34F (it will want to latently cool to 32-33), secondly, the heavy rates overwhelm any immediate warmth at the surface. This is why the warm ground argument doesn't work even if it was 75F two days before a spring snow bomb. But that 34-35F type snow is usually when you have a lighter event...so it's all about the rates. You get heavy precip, its going to be 32F and not stay at 34-35F. If precip ends up being overdone and we get a more shredded radar presentation, then that would help the sfc temps stay higher. Makes Sense, sounds like i'm paranoid about antecedent airmass and also wether drier dews are slower than modeled to get in here! I think we will get the rates (no question really) . I remember one year (on Ekster Bday) when RI was getting fire hosed to death and started out like 37/36 and 2 to 3 hours later it was 33/33 and dumping silver dollars at diamond hill state park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On 11/25/2014 at 7:50 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Oh, well I'd be stunned if I saw less than 6". I'm with you. BOS is probably going to be a crapshoot right up until during the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On 11/25/2014 at 7:53 PM, ORH_wxman said: Not suprising, the SREFs had a ridiculous amount of snow right to the coast at 09z Don't look like the 18z Nam is backing down..........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On 11/25/2014 at 7:58 PM, dryslot said: Don't look like the 18z Nam is backing down..........lolDoesn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On 11/25/2014 at 7:11 PM, ORH_wxman said: Anyone is free to start an obs thread whenever...that includes now if they feel the sudden urge to post that their temp is currently 57F with partly cloudy skies. You are bring it all today....not just the weather expertise but the wit too. Sorry to be missing this storm. Looks like a solid one for those of us who live in Dendriteville. Concerned though that it will melt out and we will have to restart our pack in mid-December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Best guess BOS 2" ORH 9" GAY 7" ASH 8" PIT 9" FIT 10" TOL 6" BDL 5" TAN 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On 11/25/2014 at 8:00 PM, NorEastermass128 said: Best guess BOS 2" ORH 9" GAY 7" ASH 8" PIT 9" FIT 10" TOL 6" BDL 5" TAN 2" WE should have a thread with 5-10 stations and we guess totals and closest gets some weenie pride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On 11/25/2014 at 7:59 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Doesn't Its even more amped then 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On 11/25/2014 at 8:00 PM, NorEastermass128 said: Best guess BOS 2" ORH 9" GAY 7" ASH 8" PIT 9" FIT 10" TOL 6" BDL 5" TAN 2" I think jp will be higher elevation than FIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On 11/25/2014 at 8:03 PM, dryslot said: Its even more amped then 12z 18z NAM is probably the worst performer statistically so I would not even look at the NAM again until 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On 11/25/2014 at 8:04 PM, Max said: 18z NAM is probably the worst performer statistically so I would not even look at the NAM again until 0z.. This run is 6 hrs closer to game time and should statistically be better than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On 11/25/2014 at 8:06 PM, CoastalWx said: . This run is 6 hrs closer to game time and should statistically be better than 12z. Smack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On 11/25/2014 at 8:06 PM, CoastalWx said: . This run is 6 hrs closer to game time and should statistically be better than 12z. Look at the 6 hr difference from 21hr this run and 27 hr on its 12z run. Looks so weird that it could jump the low position that much in one run. That's why I don't trust the 18z ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On 11/25/2014 at 8:06 PM, CoastalWx said: . This run is 6 hrs closer to game time and should statistically be better than 12z. I guess if you don't look at it now inside 24 hrs we should just not look at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On 11/25/2014 at 8:08 PM, cpick79 said: Will or Scott , and yes weenies calm down, are you guys at all concerned that lower dews will not be draining in as fast as models show (or that they are lagging today) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM looks really toasty at 700mb from what I'm seeing, will post the map in a moment. Don't give it much credit because it's the 18z NAM, but certainly something to keep an eye on for the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On 11/25/2014 at 7:10 PM, Nwbostonwx said: What does any one make of the RGEM ensembles? looks like the OP is on the western fringe, better snow potential here in BOS? http://meteocentre.com/tracking/track.php?&mod=cmc_reps&run=12〈=en&area=na Man the GEFS is locked, cool link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 On 11/25/2014 at 8:09 PM, skisheep said: NAM looks really toasty at 700mb from what I'm seeing, will post the map in a moment. Don't give it much credit because it's the 18z NAM, but certainly something to keep an eye on for the other models. Yeah it does. Actually, between 650 and 750. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Ray, c'mon it's my last question and it's not uncalled for ( a NYC met mentioned it) I know it's not popular, just can't help it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I don't buy it, but if it verified, lots of forecasts busting for many. What a warm disaster. Eventually flips to snow west to east, but relying on back end is dangerous especially in a setup like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 While the temps at 700mb climb on this run, the 850mb line stays well south of it. What will that produce in precip type at the surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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