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Thanksgiving Eve Nor'Easter OBS ONLY


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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
154 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 8
HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION
IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN
SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE
ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                     SNOWFALL           OF
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
   BROOKFIELD             2.5  1240 PM 11/26  PUBLIC
   BETHEL                 2.0   100 PM 11/26  PUBLIC
   DANBURY                1.9  1200 PM 11/26  TRAINED SPOTTER
   BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT       T   100 PM 11/26  NWS COOP

NEW JERSEY

...BERGEN COUNTY...
   RIDGEWOOD              1.5   100 PM 11/26  TRAINED SPOTTER
   MAHWAH                 1.0  1030 AM 11/26  TRAINED SPOTTER

...ESSEX COUNTY...
   CEDAR GROVE            2.6   130 PM 11/26  PUBLIC
   NEWARK AIRPORT         0.9   100 PM 11/26  FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER

...HUDSON COUNTY...
   HARRISON               1.0   100 PM 11/26  TRAINED SPOTTER

...PASSAIC COUNTY...
   WEST MILFORD           6.0   115 PM 11/26  TRAINED SPOTTER
   WAYNE                  1.8  1240 PM 11/26  TRAINED SPOTTER

...UNION COUNTY...
   PLAINFIELD             1.1  1255 PM 11/26  TRAINED SPOTTER
   ELIZABETH              1.0  1245 PM 11/26  PUBLIC

NEW YORK

...NEW YORK COUNTY...
   CENTRAL PARK           0.2   100 PM 11/26  CENTRAL PARK ZOO

...ORANGE COUNTY...
   GREENVILLE             6.5   120 PM 11/26  TRAINED SPOTTER
   WESTTOWN               4.5   145 PM 11/26  PUBLIC
   NEW WINDSOR            4.1  1235 PM 11/26  TRAINED SPOTTER
   GREENWOOD LAKE         4.0   120 PM 11/26  PUBLIC
   NEWBURGH               2.5  1158 AM 11/26  TRAINED SPOTTER

...QUEENS COUNTY...
   NYC/JFK AIRPORT        0.1   100 PM 11/26  FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER

...ROCKLAND COUNTY...
   NEW SQUARE             3.0   125 PM 11/26  PUBLIC

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
   ISLIP AIRPORT            T   100 PM 11/26  FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
   UPTON                    T   100 PM 11/26  NWS OFFICE

...WESTCHESTER COUNTY...
   ARMONK                 2.5  1230 PM 11/26  PUBLIC
   SCARSDALE              0.2  1100 AM 11/26  TRAINED SPOTTER

$$

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   the  warm   nose    may be to your east  and yes you could see  the 3-6"    but  NYC ? 

Snowing pretty heavily in the Edison area with a little over 1" on the ground and 31F. Was just driving around and local roads are snow covered, while 287/1/27 are getting a little slush on them.

If we don't get this "warm nose" that's been advertised and it stays all snow and near 32F, I would think we'd get 3-6" or so. In fact, TWC just upped their snowfall forecast for Piscataway (5 miles west of me) from 1-2" to 5-8" calling for heavy snow. Haven't seen the NWS up any forecasts and am wondering if that might happen soon - they did just extend the WWAdvisory into DE, but the snowfall mapst haven't changed for the I-95 corridor up here.

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worst forecast of the year  .... TWC  actually increasing snow amounts   in NYC  to 3-6"    at  1030 am this morning

 

They became irrelevant to the serious weather community circa 1988.

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Upton had 4-8 inches yesterday morning with a Winter Storm Watch

 

It could be if Upton supplanted the Bronx / Westchester line 35 miles to the north...

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

SPOTTER REPORTS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

154 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 8

HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION

IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN

SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE

ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

...QUEENS COUNTY...

   NYC/JFK AIRPORT        0.1   100 PM 11/26  FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER

$$

WHAT??? That is utter crap.

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Yes, saw the 4" to 8" and copy and pasted the Upton text and sent to building facilities crew to prepare for today. Told them would likely be less.

 

Here's yesterday's discussion from OKX:

 000

FXUS61 KOKX 252343

AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

643 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...MODELS HAVE COME INTO CONSENSUS WITH A

LOW TRACK JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK WED EVE. THERE IS NO POLAR AIR

IN PLACE FOR LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR WITH THE MODELS VARYING WITH AN

ELEVATED WARM LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS. THE 18Z NAM WRF IS THE MOST

AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS WARMING WITH 3 DEG C AT 700 MB ACROSS THE NYC

METRO. IRONICALLY...THE NAM ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO WAS THE COLDEST

SOLUTION WITH A TRACK A BIT FARTHER EAST. IT STILL REMAINS THE

COLDEST IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH FOR THE MOST PART IS THE

HANG UP FOR THE NYC METRO...COASTAL CT...AND WESTERN LI...WHICH

ARE GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING ABOVE 1500 FT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER

WILL BE CRITICAL HERE. AS FOR THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER FROM THE

LATEST NAM...WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS SHOWS UP IN THE 00Z

CYCLE...PARTICULARLY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE NAM IS CLEARLY MORE

ROBUST WITH AN 85 TO 90 KT JET AT 650 MB. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 10 TO

15 KT WEAKER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE...AND THE GFS IS EVEN FARTHER

EAST. THIS COULD BE HUGE PLAY MAKER. IN ADDITION...WITH A

MARGINALLY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE...850-500 MB FRONTOGENESIS COULD

OVERWHELM THE COLUMN WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWS EVEN INTO THE NYC

METRO. FOR NOW WILL KEEP ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS AT THE COAST AND

WARNING LEVEL ACROSS INLAND AREAS. EASTERN LI AND SE CT WILL

SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL UNLESS A SIGNIFICANT TRACK

CHANGE ENSUES IN SUBSEQUENT CYCLES...WHICH IS NOT LIKELY.

.

HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES IN THE

LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...TO 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

Some are not terribly adept an distinguishing the various sections of the OKX CWA...even after their cumulative post count has moved into the five figure range...

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Here's yesterday's discussion from OKX:

 000

FXUS61 KOKX 252343

AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

643 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...MODELS HAVE COME INTO CONSENSUS WITH A

LOW TRACK JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK WED EVE. THERE IS NO POLAR AIR

IN PLACE FOR LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR WITH THE MODELS VARYING WITH AN

ELEVATED WARM LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS. THE 18Z NAM WRF IS THE MOST

AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS WARMING WITH 3 DEG C AT 700 MB ACROSS THE NYC

METRO. IRONICALLY...THE NAM ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO WAS THE COLDEST

SOLUTION WITH A TRACK A BIT FARTHER EAST. IT STILL REMAINS THE

COLDEST IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH FOR THE MOST PART IS THE

HANG UP FOR THE NYC METRO...COASTAL CT...AND WESTERN LI...WHICH

ARE GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING ABOVE 1500 FT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER

WILL BE CRITICAL HERE. AS FOR THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER FROM THE

LATEST NAM...WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS SHOWS UP IN THE 00Z

CYCLE...PARTICULARLY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE NAM IS CLEARLY MORE

ROBUST WITH AN 85 TO 90 KT JET AT 650 MB. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 10 TO

15 KT WEAKER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE...AND THE GFS IS EVEN FARTHER

EAST. THIS COULD BE HUGE PLAY MAKER. IN ADDITION...WITH A

MARGINALLY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE...850-500 MB FRONTOGENESIS COULD

OVERWHELM THE COLUMN WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWS EVEN INTO THE NYC

METRO. FOR NOW WILL KEEP ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS AT THE COAST AND

WARNING LEVEL ACROSS INLAND AREAS. EASTERN LI AND SE CT WILL

SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL UNLESS A SIGNIFICANT TRACK

CHANGE ENSUES IN SUBSEQUENT CYCLES...WHICH IS NOT LIKELY.

.

HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES IN THE

LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...TO 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

 

This is what I had yesterday morning. Granted the models were changing during the day and did not pan out for us. We have had plenty of others in past few winters work out for us. Currently still sleet in Old Bridge.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
413 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014
 
...HEAVY WET SNOWFALL TO IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
 
CTZ009-010-NJZ006-104-106>108-NYZ071>075-176>178-252300-
/O.EXA.KOKX.WS.A.0006.141126T1200Z-141127T1200Z/
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-HUDSON-EASTERN BERGEN-
EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-
413 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014
 
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.
 
* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...NORTHERN NASSAU COUNTY...SOUTHERN
  WESTCHESTER COUNTY...WESTERN COASTAL CONNECTICUT....AND PORTIONS
  OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.
 
* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.
 
* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.
 
* TIMING...A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD
  CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON.
 
* IMPACTS...THE SNOWFALL WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY
  TRAVEL...MAKING DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
 
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
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This is what I had yesterday morning. Granted the models were changing during the day and did not pan out for us. We have had plenty of others in past few winters work out for us. Currently still sleet in Old Bridge.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

413 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

 

...HEAVY WET SNOWFALL TO IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEDNESDAY AND

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

 

CTZ009-010-NJZ006-104-106>108-NYZ071>075-176>178-252300-

/O.EXA.KOKX.WS.A.0006.141126T1200Z-141127T1200Z/

SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-HUDSON-EASTERN BERGEN-

EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-

NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-

KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-

413 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH

THURSDAY MORNING...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH

THURSDAY MORNING.

 

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...NORTHERN NASSAU COUNTY...SOUTHERN

  WESTCHESTER COUNTY...WESTERN COASTAL CONNECTICUT....AND PORTIONS

  OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.

 

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

 

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.

 

* TIMING...A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD

  CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON.

 

* IMPACTS...THE SNOWFALL WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY

  TRAVEL...MAKING DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

I really don't consider that to be an official forecast...just one of those standard, generic canned paragraphs the NWS uses when a Winter Storm Watch is formally issued.

Upton generally never forecasts precise snowfall amounts until the area is within about 12 hours of the onset of the snow...they may speculate on totals; but that does not necessarily constitute an official prediction.

However, in fairness, I can see how those not particularly well versed in the nomenclature and language utilized by meteorological community *could* potentially incorrectly interpret what was said or deem it somewhat ambiguous.

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