SnoSki14 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Having two instances of seeing frozen precip this month is a win even if there's no accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Had snow sleet mix here for several hours... now mostly plain rain, 0.8" snow/sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 So close to changing over right now. Flakes have collapsed to needles and cones...can see the transition line on CC from OKX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 sleet has better ratios than what i'm getting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 700mb temperatures are really warming...0C line at H7 just south of NYC, -2C cuts through Westchester. Just a few hours ago, H7 temps were -4 to -5 here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTSPOTTER REPORTSNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY154 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 8HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATIONIS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARNSPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLEON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENTCONNECTICUT...FAIRFIELD COUNTY... BROOKFIELD 2.5 1240 PM 11/26 PUBLIC BETHEL 2.0 100 PM 11/26 PUBLIC DANBURY 1.9 1200 PM 11/26 TRAINED SPOTTER BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT T 100 PM 11/26 NWS COOPNEW JERSEY...BERGEN COUNTY... RIDGEWOOD 1.5 100 PM 11/26 TRAINED SPOTTER MAHWAH 1.0 1030 AM 11/26 TRAINED SPOTTER...ESSEX COUNTY... CEDAR GROVE 2.6 130 PM 11/26 PUBLIC NEWARK AIRPORT 0.9 100 PM 11/26 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER...HUDSON COUNTY... HARRISON 1.0 100 PM 11/26 TRAINED SPOTTER...PASSAIC COUNTY... WEST MILFORD 6.0 115 PM 11/26 TRAINED SPOTTER WAYNE 1.8 1240 PM 11/26 TRAINED SPOTTER...UNION COUNTY... PLAINFIELD 1.1 1255 PM 11/26 TRAINED SPOTTER ELIZABETH 1.0 1245 PM 11/26 PUBLICNEW YORK...NEW YORK COUNTY... CENTRAL PARK 0.2 100 PM 11/26 CENTRAL PARK ZOO...ORANGE COUNTY... GREENVILLE 6.5 120 PM 11/26 TRAINED SPOTTER WESTTOWN 4.5 145 PM 11/26 PUBLIC NEW WINDSOR 4.1 1235 PM 11/26 TRAINED SPOTTER GREENWOOD LAKE 4.0 120 PM 11/26 PUBLIC NEWBURGH 2.5 1158 AM 11/26 TRAINED SPOTTER...QUEENS COUNTY... NYC/JFK AIRPORT 0.1 100 PM 11/26 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER...ROCKLAND COUNTY... NEW SQUARE 3.0 125 PM 11/26 PUBLIC...SUFFOLK COUNTY... ISLIP AIRPORT T 100 PM 11/26 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER UPTON T 100 PM 11/26 NWS OFFICE...WESTCHESTER COUNTY... ARMONK 2.5 1230 PM 11/26 PUBLIC SCARSDALE 0.2 1100 AM 11/26 TRAINED SPOTTER$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Hearing sleet mixing in again after about half hour of pure rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 worst forecast of the year .... TWC actually increasing snow amounts in NYC to 3-6" at 1030 am this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 worst forecast of the year .... TWC actually increasing snow amounts in NYC to 3-6" at 1030 am this morning Upton had 4-8 inches yesterday morning with a Winter Storm Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 the warm nose may be to your east and yes you could see the 3-6" but NYC ? Snowing pretty heavily in the Edison area with a little over 1" on the ground and 31F. Was just driving around and local roads are snow covered, while 287/1/27 are getting a little slush on them.If we don't get this "warm nose" that's been advertised and it stays all snow and near 32F, I would think we'd get 3-6" or so. In fact, TWC just upped their snowfall forecast for Piscataway (5 miles west of me) from 1-2" to 5-8" calling for heavy snow. Haven't seen the NWS up any forecasts and am wondering if that might happen soon - they did just extend the WWAdvisory into DE, but the snowfall mapst haven't changed for the I-95 corridor up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 worst forecast of the year .... TWC actually increasing snow amounts in NYC to 3-6" at 1030 am this morning They became irrelevant to the serious weather community circa 1988. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 IN NYC ? bull**** 3 to 5" Upton had 4-8 inches yesterday morning with a Winter Storm Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 NYC does not see backend snows unless the system is vertically stacked at 500-850 but people fall for it every time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 IN NYC ? bull**** 3 to 5" Upton had 4-8 inches yesterday morning with a Winter Storm Watch like dt showed in his map jackpot for northwest nj, northeast pa, south ny state, good call some of those locales will top a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Upton had 4-8 inches yesterday morning with a Winter Storm Watch It could be if Upton supplanted the Bronx / Westchester line 35 miles to the north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 IN NYC ? bull**** 3 to 5" Upton had 4-8 inches yesterday morning with a Winter Storm Watch Yes, saw the 4" to 8" and copy and pasted the Upton text and sent to building facilities crew to prepare for today. Told them would likely be less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSNN4 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 They became irrelevant to the serious weather community circa 1988. totally agree !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 southern morris county... just caled my father... 30 dbz bands heavy snow. 4 inches. Sleet right to the south not even 5 miles. THey are right on the snow side... usualy where the heaviest falls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SPOTTER REPORTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 154 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014 THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 8 HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC ********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL******************** ...QUEENS COUNTY... NYC/JFK AIRPORT 0.1 100 PM 11/26 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER $$ WHAT??? That is utter crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 NYC does not see backend snows unless the system is vertically stacked at 500-850 but people fall for it every time And yet many people including mets are calling for that later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Yes, saw the 4" to 8" and copy and pasted the Upton text and sent to building facilities crew to prepare for today. Told them would likely be less. The snow map was 6-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Yes, saw the 4" to 8" and copy and pasted the Upton text and sent to building facilities crew to prepare for today. Told them would likely be less. Here's yesterday's discussion from OKX: 000 FXUS61 KOKX 252343 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 643 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...MODELS HAVE COME INTO CONSENSUS WITH A LOW TRACK JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK WED EVE. THERE IS NO POLAR AIR IN PLACE FOR LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR WITH THE MODELS VARYING WITH AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS. THE 18Z NAM WRF IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS WARMING WITH 3 DEG C AT 700 MB ACROSS THE NYC METRO. IRONICALLY...THE NAM ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO WAS THE COLDEST SOLUTION WITH A TRACK A BIT FARTHER EAST. IT STILL REMAINS THE COLDEST IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH FOR THE MOST PART IS THE HANG UP FOR THE NYC METRO...COASTAL CT...AND WESTERN LI...WHICH ARE GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING ABOVE 1500 FT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE CRITICAL HERE. AS FOR THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER FROM THE LATEST NAM...WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS SHOWS UP IN THE 00Z CYCLE...PARTICULARLY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE NAM IS CLEARLY MORE ROBUST WITH AN 85 TO 90 KT JET AT 650 MB. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 KT WEAKER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE...AND THE GFS IS EVEN FARTHER EAST. THIS COULD BE HUGE PLAY MAKER. IN ADDITION...WITH A MARGINALLY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE...850-500 MB FRONTOGENESIS COULD OVERWHELM THE COLUMN WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWS EVEN INTO THE NYC METRO. FOR NOW WILL KEEP ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS AT THE COAST AND WARNING LEVEL ACROSS INLAND AREAS. EASTERN LI AND SE CT WILL SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL UNLESS A SIGNIFICANT TRACK CHANGE ENSUES IN SUBSEQUENT CYCLES...WHICH IS NOT LIKELY. . HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...TO 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA. Some are not terribly adept an distinguishing the various sections of the OKX CWA...even after their cumulative post count has moved into the five figure range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 And yet many people including mets are calling for that later There could be an inch if the bands hang around a bit til say 02-03z but more than that will be tough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 All sleet now in Westfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 All sleet now in Westfield Was it rain or snow before... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Here's yesterday's discussion from OKX: 000 FXUS61 KOKX 252343 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 643 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...MODELS HAVE COME INTO CONSENSUS WITH A LOW TRACK JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK WED EVE. THERE IS NO POLAR AIR IN PLACE FOR LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR WITH THE MODELS VARYING WITH AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS. THE 18Z NAM WRF IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS WARMING WITH 3 DEG C AT 700 MB ACROSS THE NYC METRO. IRONICALLY...THE NAM ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO WAS THE COLDEST SOLUTION WITH A TRACK A BIT FARTHER EAST. IT STILL REMAINS THE COLDEST IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH FOR THE MOST PART IS THE HANG UP FOR THE NYC METRO...COASTAL CT...AND WESTERN LI...WHICH ARE GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING ABOVE 1500 FT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE CRITICAL HERE. AS FOR THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER FROM THE LATEST NAM...WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS SHOWS UP IN THE 00Z CYCLE...PARTICULARLY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE NAM IS CLEARLY MORE ROBUST WITH AN 85 TO 90 KT JET AT 650 MB. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 KT WEAKER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE...AND THE GFS IS EVEN FARTHER EAST. THIS COULD BE HUGE PLAY MAKER. IN ADDITION...WITH A MARGINALLY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE...850-500 MB FRONTOGENESIS COULD OVERWHELM THE COLUMN WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWS EVEN INTO THE NYC METRO. FOR NOW WILL KEEP ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS AT THE COAST AND WARNING LEVEL ACROSS INLAND AREAS. EASTERN LI AND SE CT WILL SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL UNLESS A SIGNIFICANT TRACK CHANGE ENSUES IN SUBSEQUENT CYCLES...WHICH IS NOT LIKELY. . HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...TO 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA. This is what I had yesterday morning. Granted the models were changing during the day and did not pan out for us. We have had plenty of others in past few winters work out for us. Currently still sleet in Old Bridge. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 413 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 ...HEAVY WET SNOWFALL TO IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT... CTZ009-010-NJZ006-104-106>108-NYZ071>075-176>178-252300- /O.EXA.KOKX.WS.A.0006.141126T1200Z-141127T1200Z/ SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-HUDSON-EASTERN BERGEN- EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)- KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS- 413 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...NORTHERN NASSAU COUNTY...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER COUNTY...WESTERN COASTAL CONNECTICUT....AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES. * TIMING...A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...THE SNOWFALL WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I just hope this isnt a pre-cursor of what this winter holds in store...I have a sneaking suspicion that it might be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Currently 35/36 ish with a rain/snow/sleet mix here in Hicksville. Temps have certainly dropped off in the last couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 This is what I had yesterday morning. Granted the models were changing during the day and did not pan out for us. We have had plenty of others in past few winters work out for us. Currently still sleet in Old Bridge. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 413 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 ...HEAVY WET SNOWFALL TO IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT... CTZ009-010-NJZ006-104-106>108-NYZ071>075-176>178-252300- /O.EXA.KOKX.WS.A.0006.141126T1200Z-141127T1200Z/ SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-HUDSON-EASTERN BERGEN- EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)- KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS- 413 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...NORTHERN NASSAU COUNTY...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER COUNTY...WESTERN COASTAL CONNECTICUT....AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES. * TIMING...A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...THE SNOWFALL WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. I really don't consider that to be an official forecast...just one of those standard, generic canned paragraphs the NWS uses when a Winter Storm Watch is formally issued. Upton generally never forecasts precise snowfall amounts until the area is within about 12 hours of the onset of the snow...they may speculate on totals; but that does not necessarily constitute an official prediction. However, in fairness, I can see how those not particularly well versed in the nomenclature and language utilized by meteorological community *could* potentially incorrectly interpret what was said or deem it somewhat ambiguous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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