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Thanksgiving Eve storm obs and nowcasting


Ian

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23Z HRRR suggests a 9 AM rn/sn line down 95, with a solid radar at that time.

23Z RAP suggests the Rn/sn line makes it to DC at around 9 am but then retreats to the northern tier of counties after 11 am (maybe a little out of its range?). Total QPF is .5"+ for everyone by noon, with the radar suggesting more to come.

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41.9. Dreading the spike later.

 

Fortunately for many of us radiative cooling and evaporative cooling are not mutually exclusive. I'm counting on cloud cover being friendly this evening, most of the N/W burbs of DC should come in a couple of degrees under NWS temp forecasts, but you're really fighting your 'model of choice' rather than the NWS temperature thoughts.

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I thought it was established that the RAP at range is pretty bad with temps?

established by who? they're certainly not gospel tho I think they're not terrible depending on the situation and if there is run to run consistency.  i look at RAP temps quite a bit late run when doing forecasts on Friday nights and it rarely truly lets me down.

 

i don't have a great feel for this one way or another locally, but the warm bust ideas certainly make more sense than the other way at this point.

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