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Thanksgiving Eve storm obs and nowcasting


Ian

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Couple of side items to pay attention to:

 

1.)  Highs are running 1-3 degrees below what was forecast.  

2.)  Dew points are running lower than what MAV/MET MOS guidance was forecasting.  This is huge, especially if the dews can drop another 3-5 degrees overnight.  The atmosphere will be able to wet bulb much quicker.

3.)  The cirrus shield has really muted the insolation on roads...secondary roads should see some adverse impacts.

4.)  Speaking of clouds, there is a nice bit of clearing in western PA / eastern OH.  If that can nudge in for a few hours this evening then it should help temps radiate.

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Couple of side items to pay attention to:

 

1.)  Highs are running 1-3 degrees below what was forecast.  

2.)  Dew points are running lower than what MAV/MET MOS guidance was forecasting.  This is huge, especially if the dews can drop another 3-5 degrees overnight.  The atmosphere will be able to wet bulb much quicker.

3.)  The cirrus shield has really muted the insolation on roads...secondary roads should see some adverse impacts.

4.)  Speaking of clouds, there is a nice bit of clearing in western PA / eastern OH.  If that can nudge in for a few hours this evening then it should help temps radiate.

 

 

Yeah, I'll back up these points as well. All of these points seem subtle but could make a very big difference. Also, It will be interesting to see how if there are still some breaks in the clouds during the evening hours, which would allow temperatures to continue to drop somewhat.

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forecast high of 55F today.  Hit 57F.  Interestingly, we are under 95% sunny skies.  Explains the temp bust, and will be interesting if it persists long enough to get us quick radiational cooling before the blanket is put back on us.  Each degree is going to be critical for us.

When you have radiational cooling like you describe, is the theory that once the temps drop  they get locked in once the cloud cover comes back so we would be a few degrees colder than forecasted?

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forecast high of 55F today.  Hit 57F.  Interestingly, we are under 95% sunny skies.  Explains the temp bust, and will be interesting if it persists long enough to get us quick radiational cooling before the blanket is put back on us.  Each degree is going to be critical for us.

2 degrees off is a temp bust? Tough. 

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Here is pretty cool tool I just found on DT's facebook page.

 

Select your county and look at your probabilities.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/#table

 

For cities in Frederick, VA county

Location Min Likely Max 0" 0.1-1" 1-2" 2-4" 4-8" 8-12" 12-18" >18" Cedar Grove, VA 1 5 13 2% 12% 9% 17% 24% 21% 15% 0% Gore, VA 1 5 13 1% 12% 8% 17% 25% 21% 16% 0% Middletown, VA 1 5 13 1% 8% 11% 23% 23% 18% 16% 0% Stephens City, VA 1 5 13 1% 10% 11% 22% 22% 19% 15% 0% Whitacre, VA 1 5 13 2% 11% 9% 16% 26% 20% 16% 0% Winchester, VA 1 5 13 2% 13% 9% 19% 23% 20% 14% 0%

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Here is pretty cool tool I just found on DT's facebook page.

 

Select your county and look at your probabilities.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/#table

 

For cities in Frederick, VA county

Location Min Likely Max 0" 0.1-1" 1-2" 2-4" 4-8" 8-12" 12-18" >18" Cedar Grove, VA 1 5 13 2% 12% 9% 17% 24% 21% 15% 0% Gore, VA 1 5 13 1% 12% 8% 17% 25% 21% 16% 0% Middletown, VA 1 5 13 1% 8% 11% 23% 23% 18% 16% 0% Stephens City, VA 1 5 13 1% 10% 11% 22% 22% 19% 15% 0% Whitacre, VA 1 5 13 2% 11% 9% 16% 26% 20% 16% 0% Winchester, VA 1 5 13 2% 13% 9% 19% 23% 20% 14% 0%

pretty cool.

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