yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Barely snow sounding/in the process of changing to snow at 12z at KIAD per 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM has its coldest run and GFS has its warmest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Just anecdotally speaking...these things come in earlier than modeled...that would be my biggest fear right now...the back edge is really just the cold air coming...radar looks juicy down south with some returns already in SE virginia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 predominant precip type at 30 hours looks bad for I95 anything before 1PM http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_030_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=dom_precip_type&fhr=030&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141125+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The 850 line actually jumps up just south of DC at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 predominant precip type at 30 hours looks bad for I95 anything before 1PM http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_030_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=dom_precip_type&fhr=030&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141125+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=78 GFS is a furnace in the low-levels. It's probably only a 1-2C change from before, but that's enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Starting to think DCA may have wire-to-wire rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 GFS still dry w/ a pseudo dry slot...weird place to put it.. Can't wait until this model is retired Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This is going to be an interesting model war... will NAM pull it out with the sneaky cold or will GFS sneak in with the warmth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Take this as you like: Tom Tasselmyer @ttasselWBAL 6m 6 minutes ago Very reliable 4km RPM shows much less snow accum in cen. MD compared to NWS models. Warm low levels hard to overcome. Has a pic of snow accumulation with basically none in the entire state of MD. Of course, also has very little accumulation anywhere up and down the east coast. Like <4" everywhere. The 12Z NAM suggests light to moderate snow between I-95 and I-81 from about 21Z Wed until about 3Z Thursday. So...a slushy inch for most and those above 800 ft. will get into the 2" to 4". DC is gonna struggle to get much of any accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Uniform 34-35 @ 1pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This is going to be an interesting model war... will NAM pull it out with the sneaky cold or will GFS sneak in with the warmth? nothing sneaky about warm air around here....it lurks all around us it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Uniform 34-35 @ 1pm. ala Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Say it with me...deform bands love _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Yes they do love us to the west. But the low level temps on most of the models are a glaring concern. I mean the GFS is a torch man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Can someome inform me of the 24-27hr temp for ROA when the 1/2" of qpf sits over us for both hours noted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This is going to be an interesting model war... will NAM pull it out with the sneaky cold or will GFS sneak in with the warmth? I imagine both will be wrong and the Euro will be right. The 12Z NAM suggests light to moderate snow between I-95 and I-81 from about 21Z Wed until about 3Z Thursday. Yes it does. It also suggests heavy snow from 14z-18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 ala Euro east yes.. warmer than euro west. overall, about 1-2 warmer everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The 12Z NAM suggests light to moderate snow between I-95 and I-81 from about 21Z Wed until about 3Z Thursday. So...a slushy inch for most and those above 800 ft. will get into the 2" to 4". DC is gonna struggle to get much of any accumulation. The NAM changes DC over well before 21z..where are you getting this data? Not saying I trust it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Can someome inform me of the 24-27hr temp for ROA when the 1/2" of qpf sits over us for both hours noted? 36-37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The NAM changes DC over well before 21z..where are you getting this data? Not saying I trust it.. He marches to the beat of his own drummer in these threads. Been that way for years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 And GFS back south and weaker with the trailing vort on Thursday. What an awful run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 RAP and HRRR are in dew point watch range! (both pretty solid) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 east yes.. warmer than euro west. overall, about 1-2 warmer everywhere. actually, these "swings" back and forth with each run are normal for the models, but being soooo close to rain/snow just makes the swings look larger than they are or we should expect from the models I predict whether it's raining or snowing at any particular time/location tomorrow, half of the previous model runs will have predicted rain and the other half snow at that time/location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 36-37 Ugh figured thanks Bob I was hoping you would answer. Is it a fair assumption that the Nam is still superior in regards to forecasting low level cold over the gfs? I know i used to rely on it when i lived in the northeast for cold air damming events idk if it could be applied here though since its a different setup. Do you happen to know if it was significance down here comparing it to the 36-37 you just gave me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Para is even warmer. 38-41 @ 1pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 RAP and HRRR are in dew point watch range! (both pretty solid) for being the first person to mention those models, you deserve a time out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Para is even warmer. 38-41 @ 1pm I'm lowering the bar as long as I can drive w/in 30 minutes of mby to see accumulated snow, I'll be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 two things of note here: 1) The 12z NAM nest is noticeably warmer than the parent. For example, the parent 2-m temp for 16z tomorrow is between 33 and 34, while the nest is up around 37. 2) Even though the 12z NAM parent is "cold", the microphysics fields (which tend to really provide some answers in these marginal situations) suggest snow, but a very wet snow that struggles to accumulate. The % of frozen precipitation parameter needs to be in the >90 range for good accumulating snow, and the NAM is mainly in the 65-75 range between 15 and 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Ugh figured thanks Bob I was hoping you would answer. Is it a fair assumption that the Nam is still superior in regards to forecasting low level cold over the gfs? I know i used to rely on it when i lived in the northeast for cold air damming events idk if it could be applied here though since its a different setup. Do you happen to know if it was significance down here comparing it to the 36-37 you just gave me? It's too borderline to get that finite. Both could be right or wrong. We'll see how things looks tonight. No matter which way you shake it, the NAM was a step in the right direction and the GFS the wrong way. Go in the middle and pray the euro saves us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 actually, these "swings" back and forth with each run are normal for the models, but being soooo close to rain/snow just makes the swings look larger than they are or we should expect from the models I predict whether it's raining or snowing at any particular time/location tomorrow, half of the previous model runs will have predicted rain and the other half snow at that time/location Good point. I would rather have my expectations lowered by a warmer run at this point... not that I have very high expectations for this storm anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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