yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 12z RGEM at 24 hrs has 1007mb L just off the SE NC coast near Wilmington - http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/592_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 But both of those lows had closed upper lows with them if I remember right. As you note, the set upp was much different for those storms than this one. Yes, and this one is a more typical bumrush miller a with the only real flaw being the surface on up a few thousand feet. Flawed mixy storms are a staple in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 All these storms being mentioned, at least for me, were snow-rain-snow, which is much different. So no, I don't know of any system offhand that turned over to accumulating snow after a big front end thump of rain (not to mention less than 48 hours after temps in the lower/mid 70's). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of people west of 95 don't see much pure rain. I mean white rain is the same I guess, though I'd hedge snowy. Busts teach lessons but you should focus on the current situation more than busts when it comes to thinking up what will happen. I still can't decide whether or not to believe you when you're the one saying to "hedge snowy" -The column/skew-t's are solid above 950, and we are not depending on an isothermal sounding. True, but they are rather poor for making dendrites. If we had nice dendrite growth forecast, that would help our situation as well. But we're probably looking at sloppy conglomerates made of needles and plates. But both of those lows had closed upper lows with them if I remember right. Correct, Wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 The RGEM looks wet early on, now to see how temperatures cooperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 12z RGEM at 24 hrs has 1007mb L just off the SE NC coast near Wilmington - http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/592_100.gif it's warmer than 0Z at 36 hrs I noticed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The Euro has crushed us with precip for like 350 runs. If we don't get some heavy precip I'm never looking at it again. Of course getting it timed right and everything, but... But it has warmer temps. Not sure how much vertical resolution the euro has, I bet it's pretty good. That's what theoretically should give better low level temp forecasts. If the euro ahs the same vertical resolution, it should have the same advantage. My guess for precipitation is somewhere around but just ovr an inch, If I gave a range .8 to 1.25 for this type of coastal so maybe the nam temps will be right but I'd sure like to see the Euro come in colder at the surface. I can remember busts both ways in terms of surface temps. The models cooling it and us buying into it and then not having it happen and the cold temps settling in quicker. I think at CWG we ahd both types of busts happen last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I still can't decide whether or not to believe you when you're the one saying to "hedge snowy" I usually have at least one spectacular bust a season. Maybe I can get it out of the way early this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 personally, there is nothing more satisfying to this weenie than witnessing rain changing to heavy, accumulating snow likewise, there nothing more demoralizing than to wait for changeovers that either never occur or occur too late to accumulate snow since elevation will be a big consideration, for those who are interested I suggest 2 sites the top one allows you to input your address and it states your exact elevation and the bottom one is a NWS product that lets you zoom in to get a very good idea of elevations that are displayed on the bottom right of the page http://veloroutes.org/elevation/ http://preview.weather.gov/edd/?lat=40.329452873812926&lon=-75.73059082031124&zoom=6&ql=FFFFFFTFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF&ml=&bm=Google_Terrain&lsr=F&lfc=F&rt=obs&rf=major|moderate|minor|action&ht=F&pid=N0Q&sf=GOES_Infrared&ri=15&obs=TFTTFFFFFFTFFFFT&is=1&ou=mph&od=-50&ships=F&cluster=T&radO=0.75&satO=0.75&hazO=0.55&tropO=0.7&ndfdO=0.7&ndfdR=Continental_US&ndfdF=Maximum_Temperature_%28%C2%BAF%29&ndfdT=12&ndfdTS=&f100=F&lviz=F&fullscreen=F&fxt=Point_%28Text_Only%29&ppd=24&pdy=3&satf=60&obsync=F&owv=F&flavor=Advanced&tfo=&tfd=&tfw=null&ht=F&hd=F&ho=null&hf=null&hb=F&ot=Meteorological_Observation&hvt=F&sht=T&uwl=F Awesome. Thanks Mitch. Will 305 feet do it for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 12z RGEM at 36 looks really nice to me -- http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/593_100.gif Will have the better color maps in a minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I usually have at least one spectacular bust a season. Maybe I can get it out of the way early this year. I must have missed it. What's your forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I must have missed it. What's your forecast?6-10 for mapgirl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Take this as you like: Tom Tasselmyer @ttasselWBAL 6m 6 minutes ago Very reliable 4km RPM shows much less snow accum in cen. MD compared to NWS models. Warm low levels hard to overcome. Has a pic of snow accumulation with basically none in the entire state of MD. Of course, also has very little accumulation anywhere up and down the east coast. Like <4" everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 6-10 for mapgirl lol You must not have a fear of heights to walk out on that ledge. Didn't she get that last week when I got seven sleet pellets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 personally, there is nothing more satisfying to this weenie than witnessing rain changing to heavy, accumulating snow likewise, there nothing more demoralizing than to wait for changeovers that either never occur or occur too late to accumulate snow since elevation will be a big consideration, for those who are interested I suggest 2 sites the top one allows you to input your address and it states your exact elevation and the bottom one is a NWS product that lets you zoom in to get a very good idea of elevations that are displayed on the bottom right of the page http://veloroutes.org/elevation/ http://preview.weather.gov/edd/?lat=40.329452873812926&lon=-75.73059082031124&zoom=6&ql=FFFFFFTFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF&ml=&bm=Google_Terrain&lsr=F&lfc=F&rt=obs&rf=major|moderate|minor|action&ht=F&pid=N0Q&sf=GOES_Infrared&ri=15&obs=TFTTFFFFFFTFFFFT&is=1&ou=mph&od=-50&ships=F&cluster=T&radO=0.75&satO=0.75&hazO=0.55&tropO=0.7&ndfdO=0.7&ndfdR=Continental_US&ndfdF=Maximum_Temperature_%28%C2%BAF%29&ndfdT=12&ndfdTS=&f100=F&lviz=F&fullscreen=F&fxt=Point_%28Text_Only%29&ppd=24&pdy=3&satf=60&obsync=F&owv=F&flavor=Advanced&tfo=&tfd=&tfw=null&ht=F&hd=F&ho=null&hf=null&hb=F&ot=Meteorological_Observation&hvt=F&sht=T&uwl=F Those two sites give me a different elevation answer by 150ft. And I'm pretty sure mapgirl had a different one that she posted earlier this year and mine was different in that one too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 12z RGEM takes a favorable track IMO from hr 27-36 for us to see some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 RGEM looks warm on the hour by hour maps, heavy snow N/W but warm on 95. The track is good however, as Yoda stated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Those two sites give me a different elevation answer by 150ft. And I'm pretty sure mapgirl had a different one that she posted earlier this year and mine was different in that one too. This is very accurate, but you have to find yourself lol. http://preview.weather.gov/edd/?lat=40.329452873812926&lon=-75.73059082031124&zoom=6&ql=FFFFFFTFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF&ml=&bm=Google_Terrain&lsr=F&lfc=F&rt=obs&rf=major|moderate|minor|action&ht=F&pid=N0Q&sf=GOES_Infrared&ri=15&obs=TFTTFFFFFFTFFFFT&is=1&ou=mph&od=-50&ships=F&cluster=T&radO=0.75&satO=0.75&hazO=0.55&tropO=0.7&ndfdO=0.7&ndfdR=Continental_US&ndfdF=Maximum_Temperature_%28%C2%BAF%29&ndfdT=12&ndfdTS=&f100=F&lviz=F&fullscreen=F&fxt=Point_%28Text_Only%29&ppd=24&pdy=3&satf=60&obsync=F&owv=F&flavor=Advanced&tfo=&tfd=&tfw=null&ht=F&hd=F&ho=null&hf=null&hb=F&ot=Meteorological_Observation&hvt=F&sht=T&uwl=F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Take this as you like: Tom Tasselmyer @ttasselWBAL 6m 6 minutes ago Very reliable 4km RPM shows much less snow accum in cen. MD compared to NWS models. Warm low levels hard to overcome. Has a pic of snow accumulation with basically none in the entire state of MD. Of course, also has very little accumulation anywhere up and down the east coast. Like <4" everywhere. I'd wait and see if the RAP and HRRR show similar totals... if they both show a bust, it's probably gonna be a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 I have to believe the meteograms for the RGEM will show near 0 snow for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Those two sites give me a different elevation answer by 150ft. And I'm pretty sure mapgirl had a different one that she posted earlier this year and mine was different in that one too. Not getting an elevation from the NWS site. The other gave me 554'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Those two sites give me a different elevation answer by 150ft. And I'm pretty sure mapgirl had a different one that she posted earlier this year and mine was different in that one too. Ive GPSd my yard at this point -- driveway is 720', back fence is just under 700' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Those two sites give me a different elevation answer by 150ft. And I'm pretty sure mapgirl had a different one that she posted earlier this year and mine was different in that one too. they are exactly the same for mby along with other locations I've looked at so I don't know what to tell you if one is more likely off, it's probably the NWS site because it's not as precise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Nothing quite as nice as getting in on a deform rain band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Dewey wins?? (Just couldn't resist that, sorry!) Tru man, very tru. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 P1_GZ_D5_PN_027_000012zRGEMQPFmap27hrs.gif Say it with me...deform bands love _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 P1_GZ_D5_PN_027_000012zRGEMQPFmap27hrs.gif 1025 high in upstate NY ain't enough I guess at this time of year d@mn close though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Hardly any snow on the RGEM for DC. ~3mm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Gfs looks noticeably west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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