Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Thanksgiving Eve Coastal Part Deux


DDweatherman

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 589
  • Created
  • Last Reply

0.6" has fallen by 8am (13z).  Temps just dropped below freezing at 950mb.  Dewpoints still around 35.

Has anyone else noticed that dew point temperatures this morning are lower than what the 0Z GFS/NAM MOS had for not only 12z this morning and lower than most of today for a number of areas?  Just curious if the models are possibly keeping temperatures slightly warmer by having those dew points too high.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Verbatim, 12z NAM probably has some sleet for many of us around 12z with a warm layer around 700-650mb.  Then it goes to snow.  Probably the coldest model run I've seen yet for the entire column.  Too bad it's the NAM.  

personally, I don't care if it's the NAM, the worst of them all, but it shows a trend that was also reflected on the 6z RGEM

so in that regard, whether I believe the NAM verbatim, it shows a glimmer of hope that the next 18-24 hrs. will trend colder after most models warmed the preceding 24 hrs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

personally, I don't care if it's the NAM, the worst of them all, but it shows a trend that was also reflected on the 6z RGEM

so in that regard, whether I believe the NAM verbatim, it shows a glimmer of hope that the next 18-24 hrs. will trend colder after most models warmed the preceding 24 hrs.

12z NAM has surface temps right at freezing it looks like by about 15z except probably for the immediate downtown spots.  Hope it's right, but not holding my breath.  IF temps are that cold, then we'd be looking at a widespread warning criteria event.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If gfs/euro tick better on temps there's going to be a lot of weenie backpedaling. I may bump a few just for some cheap thrills.

My personal over/under is 4" but I may need to measure hourly to get there.

 

Regardless of accumulations. If the NAM is right. It is going to be nice to see almost one inch per hour rates for 4 or 5 hours.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Isn'ttemp profiles one of the things the NAM is supposed to be good at?  Figured I'd ask you because you use it sometimes in your severe discussions.

I think the NAM becomes more useful from here out. 24 hours out it should in theory have a decent handle on the lower levels.  The cooling makes sense. I'd expect that a theme of the day.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...