clskinsfan Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 the NAM just pukes snow out here for 8 hours. Very heavy rates. 2m temps are still an issue though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 DCA still ripping snow at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM starts bombing this thing 996 at hr 31? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 0.6" precip as snow from 14z to 20z at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Looks like TWC is still on drugs. 8-12" seems reasonable to me for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Looks like TWC is still on drugs. my local on the 8's this am said 5-8". Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 0.6" has fallen by 8am (13z). Temps just dropped below freezing at 950mb. Dewpoints still around 35. Has anyone else noticed that dew point temperatures this morning are lower than what the 0Z GFS/NAM MOS had for not only 12z this morning and lower than most of today for a number of areas? Just curious if the models are possibly keeping temperatures slightly warmer by having those dew points too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Raleigh snow maps have 3-5" for DCA/N VA/C MD... if we choose to accept them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Raleigh snow maps have 3-5" for DCA/N VA/C MD... if we choose to accept them Instant weather snow maps about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 temps looks fine with the snow ripping even in DC. This does not look like a car topper per the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Nice NAM run. We are now within its deadly range, right? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Verbatim, 12z NAM probably has some sleet for many of us around 12z with a warm layer around 700-650mb. Then it goes to snow. Probably the coldest model run I've seen yet for the entire column. Too bad it's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Nice NAM run. We are now within its deadly range, right? MDstorm I think the fact that the Euro was wet, and the NAM keeps getting wetter can't just be dismissed. Temps on the other hand..............what I wouldn't give to have this thing in the 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Nice NAM run. We are now within its deadly range, right? MDstorm yep, weenie suicides begin shortly when the other models say otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 eh what the hell.. i'll bite. Second call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Verbatim, 12z NAM probably has some sleet for many of us around 12z with a warm layer around 700-650mb. Then it goes to snow. Probably the coldest model run I've seen yet for the entire column. Too bad it's the NAM. personally, I don't care if it's the NAM, the worst of them all, but it shows a trend that was also reflected on the 6z RGEM so in that regard, whether I believe the NAM verbatim, it shows a glimmer of hope that the next 18-24 hrs. will trend colder after most models warmed the preceding 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Were some kind of updates made to the NAM clown maps? They seem to be half way believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 if you go to the ncep site and take a look at the NAM "sim radar", you can see a definite change in the radar signature from 12Z tomorrow and before vs. 15Z and later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 personally, I don't care if it's the NAM, the worst of them all, but it shows a trend that was also reflected on the 6z RGEM so in that regard, whether I believe the NAM verbatim, it shows a glimmer of hope that the next 18-24 hrs. will trend colder after most models warmed the preceding 24 hrs. 12z NAM has surface temps right at freezing it looks like by about 15z except probably for the immediate downtown spots. Hope it's right, but not holding my breath. IF temps are that cold, then we'd be looking at a widespread warning criteria event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Dewies are low. All in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Dewies are low. All in. Dewey wins?? (Just couldn't resist that, sorry!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Dewies are low. All in. Isn'ttemp profiles one of the things the NAM is supposed to be good at? Figured I'd ask you because you use it sometimes in your severe discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 Isn'ttemp profiles one of the things the NAM is supposed to be good at? Figured I'd ask you because you use it sometimes in your severe discussions. In previous years we have heard there are cold biases with regard to the NAM, though close in it seems to do usually well with situations like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 One thing that looks iffy to me is that you have to go to northern Indiana to find a freezing temperature this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 If gfs/euro tick better on temps there's going to be a lot of weenie backpedaling. I may bump a few just for some cheap thrills. My personal over/under is 4" but I may need to measure hourly to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 One thing that looks iffy to me is that you have to go to northern Indiana to find a freezing temperature this morning. It comes from above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 If gfs/euro tick better on temps there's going to be a lot of weenie backpedaling. I may bump a few just for some cheap thrills. My personal over/under is 4" but I may need to measure hourly to get there. If you measure it, it fell. End of story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 If gfs/euro tick better on temps there's going to be a lot of weenie backpedaling. I may bump a few just for some cheap thrills. My personal over/under is 4" but I may need to measure hourly to get there. Regardless of accumulations. If the NAM is right. It is going to be nice to see almost one inch per hour rates for 4 or 5 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Isn'ttemp profiles one of the things the NAM is supposed to be good at? Figured I'd ask you because you use it sometimes in your severe discussions. I think the NAM becomes more useful from here out. 24 hours out it should in theory have a decent handle on the lower levels. The cooling makes sense. I'd expect that a theme of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 0.6" precip as snow from 14z to 20z at DCA Looks to me that the sounding above 600mb is almost unstable at 15Z. Not sure what that means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.