WxUSAF Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 DT's gone from bearish to bullish quite fast, although I really don't get his forecast for accumulations "wednesday night" when the snow will be long gone by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml DCA has 40% chance of 4"... 10% 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 09z SREFs have DCA just inside the 1" line on 24hr QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Am also in East Columbia. I've noticed a big difference in accums (usually declining) driving from Columbia to BWI area after many storms. Personally, I also don't see much chance of accums on grass, decks, etc. until late afternoon or early evening -- if then -- unless we get some great rates earlier. Only small elevation changes are needed here. You can drive from dc and start seeing the changeover during storms begin as close as north Bethesda by the 270 split. Go up 270 and once you get past rio towards gaithersburg and montgomery village and you can start seeing legit snow while the city has wet pavement. If i95 can be the rain/snow line Id say from gaithersburg to olney to columbia is often times the accumulation line. It can make a huge difference living out that way. I drove out to germantown for that dec '13 snow and it paid off bigtime. Several inches and pouring snowing there while Bethesda had mostly wet snow of the meh variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 DTs been sticking to the extremely late changeover all along. Problem is if it changes over as late as he says, his forecast accumulation amounts are going to bust hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Yes, if a Miller A pattern can establish itself from the funky jetstream it gives good odds of snowier Jan and Febs. Temps seem to be pointing to rain events in Dec. 37 winters here and it's really only useful to pay attention from Jan 5 thru March 5, if you like snow. Agreed though I would say late December snow potentials are worth following. This case is unusual but overall late December to early March with the primetime from early jan to mid/late feb. Just like in the summer we have that 6-8 week period where it can get pretty hot we get the opposite in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'm sure to the surprise of no one, but 6z NAM is really, really wet and fairly cold as well. Also has a warm layer aloft at about 650-700mb early in the morning tomorrow, so maybe some RAPL before changing to SN. Edit...and precip lasts fairly late into the day as well, maybe 22-23z before shutting off. Hence the snowier look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 09z SREFs have DCA just inside the 1" line on 24hr QPF sref_namer_042_precip_p24.gif How are the SREF temps looking? I noticed that LWX said they preferred the SREF temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'm sure to the surprise of no one, but 6z NAM is really, really wet and fairly cold as well. Also has a warm layer aloft at about 650-700mb early in the morning tomorrow, so maybe some RAPL before changing to SN. Edit...and precip lasts fairly late into the day as well, maybe 22-23z before shutting off. Hence the snowier look. I am hoping that 12z NAM continues that trend... would be nice to see if it could happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Seems like all the models are trending somewhat wetter in the last 24 hours. as long as the storm track doesn't change,my guess, and it's just a guess, is that the cold air will infiltrate the system sooner. Its like the models are playing catch up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I am hoping that 12z NAM continues that trend... would be nice to see if it could happen Will (ORH_Wxman) posted the NAM QPF bias in the SNE forum and it shows that it really is a good rule of thumb to only take 2/3rds of NAM precip when it shows these 1-1.5" amounts. Do that, and it brings it in line well with what the Euro is showing, although maybe even then the Euro is a tad wetter. GFS continues to look like a hot mess, but I don't particularly care. I'm more interested in how the GFS brings the trailing vort through closer to us and gives many of us -SHSN Thursday morning. Maybe even a dusting for DC area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 DTs been sticking to the extremely late changeover all along. Problem is if it changes over as late as he says, his forecast accumulation amounts are going to bust hard. DT is amazing pretty good in the longer range, but I tend to think he has real issues with snow amounts - too high or too low - many many times. That being said, I ain't so great either so I am only sharing my observations. ETA: Amazing was too flattering - he does well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Will (ORH_Wxman) posted the NAM QPF bias in the SNE forum and it shows that it really is a good rule of thumb to only take 2/3rds of NAM precip when it shows these 1-1.5" amounts. Do that, and it brings it in line well with what the Euro is showing, although maybe even then the Euro is a tad wetter. GFS continues to look like a hot mess, but I don't particularly care. I'm more interested in how the GFS brings the trailing vort through closer to us and gives many of us -SHSN Thursday morning. Maybe even a dusting for DC area? Euro last night was 1"+ for all... so NAM has some support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I'm sure to the surprise of no one, but 6z NAM is really, really wet and fairly cold as well. Also has a warm layer aloft at about 650-700mb early in the morning tomorrow, so maybe some RAPL before changing to SN. Edit...and precip lasts fairly late into the day as well, maybe 22-23z before shutting off. Hence the snowier look. I don't trust the NAm QPF, it tends to run high. I'm on the euro train. It's sfc temps are pretty warm for DC and me. I'm not sure how DT gets his 2-4 over me. He may be right but that seems pretty optimistic unless the temps really crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The only bothersome thing I saw on the euro last night was a west shift of the qpf max from 12-18z. Still good precip in the corridor but the max stripe moved decidedly west and is no longer centered over 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Ellinwood always has the best snow maps. If you want one to look at, use his. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I don't trust the NAm QPF, it tends to run high. I'm on the euro train. It's sfc temps are pretty warm for DC and me. I'm not sure how DT gets his 2-4 over me. He may be right but that seems pretty optimistic unless the temps really crash. Yeah, see my last post, Wes. Taking 2/3rds of NAM precip when it shows 1-1.5" really is a good rule of thumb apparently. That would bring it in line with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Sharper looking trough on this NAM run than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Sharper looking trough on this NAM run than 0z. HAHA.......not really......looked at different times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This is going to be another wet NAM run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 4am, steady rain with a dewpoint of 40 at DCA (12z NAM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The only bothersome thing I saw on the euro last night was a west shift of the qpf max from 12-18z. Still good precip in the corridor but the max stripe moved decidedly west and is no longer centered over 95. Climo wins again (probably). N+W of I-95 it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NAM has precip grazing OHIO now..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 0.6" has fallen by 8am (13z). Temps just dropped below freezing at 950mb. Dewpoints still around 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 IAD about to change over to snow at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Ellinwood always has the best snow maps. If you want one to look at, use his. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Climo wins again (probably). N+W of I-95 it is. I kept waiting for the shift and there it is. It's pretty typical as you said. Especially with the 850 track. 95 needs the heavies to score. Maybe we all get the heavies after the flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 IAD about to change over to snow at 12z DCA 14z-15z. P-type says 14z, 975mb temps below freezing at 15z. 0.8"-1.0" of rain has already fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 DCA ripping snow by 14z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Looks like TWC is still on drugs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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